Adding BIDU, HAL and SMTC

Trades: I bought March & April calls for all three of the above, and shares of SMTC. These from my latest value/growth screen.

Reversal alerts: (13) filtered down to LAYN BRKR PAY & RBN.

Who's on First

I've been trading rather actively so it's about time to summarize my holdings. Here goes ...

Stocks: ANR CF MCHP SMS SSW VALE VECO* VSEA WFR WLL & XLE. (all long)

Covered Calls (sold): (Apr) VECO*

Calls: (Jan) SKX VECO, (Feb) AEIS AMAT NEWP SCHN XLE, (Mar) SCCO, (Apr) WFR.

Puts: None.

Bull Call Spreads: (Jan) ANR CF CSTR FMCN RES RES, (Feb) CF.

Performance-wise, only the SKX call and FMCN spread are stinking up the joint. RES and VECO are a little underwater so they'll get back on track soon I hope.

I plan to sell higher calls to convert the most of the calls into bull call spreads, depending on the movement of individual stocks and the general market of course.

Good 'til the Last Drop

Trades: EGHT had plenty of time to launch but started going in the wrong direction. Gone. -6.1%.

Reversal alerts: (15) filtered down to ATV ANAD CMC TTES & NTE.

Treading Water

Trades:

ERES was getting a little "toppy" so I took that money off the table (+25.9%). Not bad for a play where I was looking to perhaps grab 7%.

RES hit the trailing stops in two accounts today (-16.5% for the small holding, -5.3% for the big one). Every time I reviewed it I said this is not a sell. I lost the argument with the trailing stop. I still have two Jan. RES spreads (mixed).

Reversal alerts: (14) filtered down to SMTC WIRE MSCC & ININ.

Post-Holiday Something

I'm not sure what today's market action meant - a poor opening followed by a strong rebound. The markets continued to slowly gain ground, finishing just above or below the even mark.

Trades: The early drop at the open filled limit orders for calls in NEWP and XLE.

NEWP has double-digit sales growth and triple-digit earnings growth with its P/E falling from 25 to 14.4. It has strong analyst opinions and estimates are being revised upward.

XLE is sporting double-digit sales growth and triple-digit earnings growth with a P/E falling to 3.7. No analyst data on Yahoo.

Reversal alerts: t2: CVLT DORM HAIN MASI & SCBT. hlr: ATV.

'Twas the Night Before the Night Before

Trades: I bought WFR shares and AMAT calls.

Reversal alerts: IOC, DORM and IDTI. IDTI is the winner here with better sales and earnings growth, dropping the P/E from 45 to 15.

Value-sales port, +38.0%

I'm 18 for 18 on the value-sales portfolio started 7/30/10. I think I'll take the next two days off.

New Old Money

Up again today. I'll speculate the some positions were sold earlier for tax reasons and now that money's coming back into the market.

Trades:

My $7.40 limit sell order for my Jan $7.50 BEXP spread fired off today. +100.2%.

I grabbed my last stock screen and went shopping. I bought calls on AEIS and WFR. I bought shares of MCHP, and SSW for a small account where CBAI was held 'til yesterday.

Reversal alerts: (13) of which only MCHP and NBR are interesting. MCHP has been sporting double digit (60%+) sales growth and triple digit earnings growth and a P/E projected to fall from 20.5 to 15.7. That growth is expected to level off next year. NBR has not been nearly as consistent, but has good earnings estimates and sales growth projected that will drop its P/E from 728 to 28.

Wealth-Lab $imulation

I just ran a Wealth-Lab $imulation with the t2 script for the last 120 trading days. Most weeks have been profitable. 

Over that time there were 30 trades, 22 of which were profitable an average of 17.81%. There were 8 losing trades averaging -9.55%. The net profit was 20.4%. Buy and Hold yielded just +3.5%.

Jump and Run

The market popped at the open and kept climbing. DJIA +55, Naz +18, SnP +7.5.

Trades: I bought CF shares and sold VECO covered calls.

CBAI finally hit the limit order again and closed out the poistion. That was a tough way to make a little profit.

RES has a pulse again, +7.1%. ERES is up again.

The value-sales portfolio is up +38.7%.

I did another sales/growth/value screen last night - got 72 results. As I went through the charts, probably 80% were hitting new highs. Basically, in this market you could buy half of them blind. Put in stop loss orders and replace the few that sell. At the end you'd have a monster portfolio.

Reversal alerts: (26) filtered down to SMTC ICUI ARW SOHU UNP & BBD. SMTC, ARW, and SOHU have the edge here.

Roller Coaster Monday

Trades:
My BEXP shares from my spread expiration (in the money, but shy of the short call) were up and started trailing down so I sold to add another 3.1% to the trade. Again, should have waited as BEXP rallied later in the day.

I sold CF Jan and Feb $125 calls for a pretty good price to convert calls to bull call spreads. I'm really starting to believe that post-expiration-Monday morning is the best time to sell calls.

Reversal alerts: (8). Nothing for me here but here they are: t2: CRI & SWHC. hlr: BVN CSR DVA HNR MRTN & RMBS.

ERES has been on a tear. Thirteen straight days of higher highs and higher lows. That's very rare. Not that I'm complaining about an 18.8% gain on something where I was hoping to snipe 7%, but caution becomes a bigger part of the equation after a while. I tightened up the stops last week.

Backwards Man

There are times when you just go about everything backwards. That was me today and yesterday.

Yesterday I sold WLL and VSEA spreads early, and below where they closed. Today they're up again, VSEA a whopping 4.7%. The other call spreads that closed today went down, BEXP -2.9%.  Sigh.  :-(

Trades: Expired call spreads: BEXP +53.0%, OMG +117.4% (both gross).

Value-sales port, +36.2%

Reversal alerts: (14) filtered down to HLF CRI RTN & EGY.

Buying RES

I'm still bullish on RES (RPC Inc.) and just picked up more shares.

RES is setting up a nice reversal pattern with good symmetry in the indicators. Analyst opinions are lukewarm, but it's P/E is falling from 36 to 17 (based on last Friday's price), and earnings estimates are holding up well. That's with triple digit sales and earnings growth.

Panic Dis Order

With the roller coaster market and options expiring tomorrow, I put in limit sell orders for VSEA and WLL as both had lost ground recently. Both orders fired off and I lost a little value (probably). +33.7% and +14.3% respectively. Considering that I'd rolled the short call up on VSEA to buy discounted intrinsic value, and doubled down on WLL with a late repeat buy, I can't complain about my yields ... too much.

That still leaves me with expiring in-the-money spreads for BEXP and OMG.

Reversal alerts: (4). Ford, SNH, and TKLC. Ford is holding a P/E between 10 and 8.

3rd Down Day

I usually like to buy after three "down" days. And here's the part where I get pessimistic and say "but not now" and watch the DJIA shoot up 200 points tomorrow.

Trades: I bought stock and calls in RES and VECO.

Reversal alerts: (4) of which only DVA is viable. 5% sales growth, flat earnings, and a P/E of 16. Meh.

The value-sales port has dropped to a +35.1% gain.

An "Up" Day. Really?

Not if you're looking at my positions and watchlist.

Trades: I bought EGHT stock, and calls for CF and SCCO. I should have waited.

VECO got a 15.6% haircut today after a downgrade by Citi to "hold".  For this year, there is another hold rating, one buy, and two overweights. Veeco's P/E is falling from 11 to 7 with recent sales growth just under 300% YoY and triple digit earnings growth. It looks like the sales and earning are going to flatten out next year, but the estimates are holding well. I'm gonna pick up some of that.

Reversal alerts: (2), BBW & PTC. PTC might be okay but seems fully valued.

Took a Spill

The market lost its footing late in the day. It's never easy ... at least recent buys ERES, VALE, and SMS are moving up.

Trades: I bought SCHN calls. SCCO got away.

Reversal alerts: (4).

The T2 script issued an alert on TTM - the HLR script alerted on it last week. It's P/E is 17.9 and that's all we know.

EGHT has very modest growth and a P/E falling to 18.6, but it could be setting up for another run.

I'm always ready to snipe a few percent on a reversal play if the fundamentals are okay. It helps a lot if the market is moving with you. But that's frequently not the case on any given day lately.

Another Up Week

Despite all the thrashing about, we're still moving up. DJIA +40, Naz +21, SnP +7.

Trades:

VSH has been drifting about and seemed headed for the trailing stop so I intervened and cut it loose in anticipation of a consolidation phase. +79.4%

CRZO announced a secondary offering after yesterday's close which explains the big drop three days ago. [Remember, there is no insider trading.] I didn't like the sound of that so I sold while I could still close out my spread in the green. +0.77%

Value-sales portfolio up +37.7%

Reversal alerts: (10).
WTR is so-so fundamentally and has moved up well (ptp).

TTM has a P/E of 20, and that's about all that is published.

I like where shipper SSW is going. Sales growth is accelerating. Now at 50% YoY sales growth (mrq). Let it shed some losses and it's headed for a P/E of 10. It's going into my watch list with the other shippers.

CIEN LULU SWS SIMG

were the big movers on my watchlist today.

I was hoping yesterday's volatility and lower prices would yield some good deals on call spreads this morning. My orders for AMP and CRZO were quickly outbid.

Trades: I bought some more WLL spreads since it was down. Could have paid less.

Reversal alerts: EGHT EPD LNCE LUV & SWS. I'll pass.

Weird Wednesday

The market indexes closed up, but all of my holdings were down except VSH, ERES and CBAI. My oil stocks were hit hard even though oil went up throughout the day.

Trades: The 6% trailing stops kicked in for VECO (+5.6%) and CF (-1.8%). CBAI touched my limit order and sold a few shares ... so few that I didn't even turn a profit after paying the sales commission. Booo.

My CRZO limit order for a call spread finished filling.

Reversal alerts: (3), all junk.

Tax Relief?

The market opened strong on the hope that tax cuts would be preserved ... then fizzled late in the day. Why do they call them tax cuts when we're overtaxed to begin with?

Trades: I bought some ERES shares.

Reversal alerts: (7) of which TSRA is of interest.

Other stuff: I'm looking again at watchlist stocks AMAT AMP APH & SCHN.

The value-sales portfolio is at +35.6%.

Flipping the Intrinsic

Today I went shopping for some option value and picked up some more energy and raw material stocks.

Trades:

I rolled my VSEA short call from $30 to 35, basically buying $5 of intrinsic value for $4.15 with the Dec. expiration coming in under two weeks.

I bought a Dec 105/115 WLL spread worth $8.64 for $6.65.

These short term trades should work out nice unless the market turns and stomps my head in. But I digress ...

Equity-wise, I bought more RES. I also moved into VALE and SMS. VALE's P/E is falling from 14 to 9 with triple digit sales and earnings growth. SMS has resurfaced (was MM - Metal Management) and has been going through some acquisition process - or not, and has no meaningful analyst coverage. I can see SMS with a forward P/E of 11. Maybe. Reader beware.

Reversal alerts: (5) of which ERES and XPO are interesting. We finally got our T2 script's alert on ERES since it has held its ground since bouncing off of the bottom two days ago. XPO is holding a P/E around 12 and has strong double digit sales growth, and growing institutional ownership (86% of institutional trades were buys; institutional ownership now at 43%).

Rebound Week

Three good days put us back where we were (more or less).

Trades: I missed moving my limit order up on my BRKS spread again. A few days ago I was trying to sell it for a small profit as I was moving to cash. Today I'm miffed because I sold $3 of intrinsic value for $2.75. Oh well, +24.8% will have to do.

I bought ANR & RES stock for some IRA accounts.

Value-sales portfolio, +35.0%

Reversal alerts: (5), all bad.

The One(s) That Got Away

DJIA +107, Naz +30, SnP +15.

Here's the part where I whine about the stocks I sold too early. LOCM +27.8%, PWER +8.2%. Okay, I'm done.

ERES was up 7.3% today so I might be on to something there.

Trades: none.

Reversal Alerts: Only three: CPBK MEDW & SGMA. Too bad none of them has earnings estimates.

Didn't Expect This

DJIA +250, Naz +51, SnP +26. Now that's a nice turn-around. Hopefully tomorrow's news won't be all about collapsing economies and global conflicts.

If we really are at the early stages of an economic recovery, then I don't want to be out of the market. That's particularly true of energy, raw materials, and maybe transportation. There's no bear market in energy as BEXP, CRZO, DRQ, RES and WLL were hitting new highs again today.

Trades: I bought Jan $15 bull call spreads in ANR, CRZO, and RES. I converted my Dec VSEA calls to a bull call spread.

Reversal Alerts: 24.

ERES (c f) has been beaten up pretty badly, has weak analyst support, and it's earning estimates are mixed between being revised upward and downward. On the plus side, its P/E is falling from 33 to 20. Sales growth was accelerating ... +99% YoY mrq though it will hold steady next quarter. Earnings will nearly double in the next quarter as it's estimated to go from 6 cps (mrq) to 10 then 12 cents/share (+49% and +188% YoY). Something has positively influenced sales and earnings going forward.

However, this was an alert from the HLR script and it does not have a good record with predicting ERES moves. The T2 script shows horrible indicator symmetry as this stock has just continued to slide. There's been huge selling pressure here - maybe its warranted, or maybe there's a trade here. I'm going to watchlist it, and may try to catch a bounce. We're either ahead of the crowd here or the last to get the bad news.

Two Down, One Up

or is it three "down" days for every "up" day now? At least it makes it easy to pick out the leaders ... and you get a good entry point on the others when the selling is done.

Stocks from my watch list up over 10% in the last two weeks.

I'm just going to sit back and watch the trailing stops fire off. Other than kicking me out of some likely long term holdings I don't mind. It's better than watching gains disappear (or worse). "Hoping and praying" is not an investment strategy.

Trades: none.

Reversal alerts: 16. Nothing jumps out at me.

Sputtering Along

There was a drastic improvement before the close, but still down: -40 / -9 / -2.

Trades: I had hope for LGL. Good fundamentals, and it looked like it was coming out of a base, but it couldn't stay above the trailing stop so it's gone (-16.5%).  I tighten up the stops when the market gets dodgy. Keep the powder dry and we'll make up those losses when the market turns for the better.

That still leaves me with positions in BEXP BRKS CF CSTR CBAI FMCN OMG SKX VSEA VECO VSH and WLL. SKX is the only rotten apple in the group; I'm happy with the rest.

Reversal alerts: 12 of which only AMCC and DO were modestly interesting. AMCC could perhaps get to a P/E of 28 one day, and DO has good valuation unless you take the shrinking earnings and sales figures into consideration. Bleak prospects all.

I missed the value-sales portfolio report Friday, so here it is: up +27.5%.

Black Friday

The short post-Turkey Day session ended down -95 / -9 / -9 respectively.

Trades: WATG had looked like it might be turning around ... or not, so I put a 3% trailing stop loss in. It triggered Friday and sold the shares bought from the Nov. call. (-12.1%)

Reversal alerts: 17. TRCR (c f) has a P/E falling from 23.5 to 18, rising earnings estimates, 24% YoY sales growth mrq (decelerating), estimated earnings steady at 0.25 (mrq) then 0.25 and 0.26 cps which is 19, 37, and 84% growth YoY.

Cleaning House

If a stock can't go up on a day like today, it's time to get rid of it. DJIA +151, Naz +48, SnP +18.

Trades:
I sold my PWER shares left over from the repaired Nov. spread (+13.8% net after everything).

I sold my Dec. YGE calls (-69.6%).

I put in an "execute and sell" order on my LOCM calls since they were trading below intrinsic value (-35.1%).

I bought CF shares and calls.

Reversal alerts: 67 filtered down to 12 but none looked interesting.

Rough Tuesday

DJIA -142, Naz -37, SnP -17.

No trades today.

Reversal alerts: (14) filtered down to CF (c f) and ROK (c f). CF is strong here. Rising earnings estimates, P/E falling from 37 to 16, rising sales. Options available.

Post-Expiration Monday

Maybe it has happened before and I didn't notice. Two of my Dec. spread's limit orders sold at the open this morning. I'm guessing some spare cash from closing options had some buyers rolling into December options at the asking price. Cool.

Trades:
BEXP ($25.60) Dec. $17/19 bull call spread sold early (+39.1%).That left me with a $15/22.50 Jan. spread. The bid on these has been so low I went shopping and bought a Dec $22/27 spread for $2.85. Not a fire sale but hopefully good for 40% in 25 days.
DIOD sold early (+92.5%).

Reversal alerts: (41) filtered down to APWR NPO QSFT TRCR TG NNN HSII HCP QSII & GMCR. Many of the charts for the reversal stocks look good. Many had a good consolidation phase and there's good symmetry in the indicators.

Let's Play "Pummel the Expiring Options!"

Why do the issues you want to finish strong fizzle going into expiration week?

Trades:
Dec. bull call spread ANR sold early (+89.7%).

I sold Jan. bcs LCC (+14.2%) at a big discount to intrinsic value before the TSA controversy kills holiday air travel and the value of the spread. (The spread's value was always heavily discounted.)

Nov. call spread NTAP expired at full value (+26.6%). I normally aim for more gain but this was a for 30 day holding that opened 9% above the short call. Seemed like a good option for some spare cash.

For Nov. call spreads WATG and PWER, the upper, short calls expired worthless, leaving me to sell the stock at a later date. The returns now stand at (+11.1%) and (-13.9%) respectively given today's closing prices.


Reversal alerts: (t2) ACAS ACE ARBA AVT BKCC BRLI ED EMR FIS GR GRS NRF RGR RRST SLH & WST. (hlr) ABT ADM ASR CBK CUB CYT GEO ICUI MBI MNTA MU RMBS ROK SNPS & WHR.

The value-sales port is up +27.3%.

New Blood

Despite my skepticism (*) about the near-term outlook for the market, there are always good stocks to invest in.

I probably looked at TRLG 10 times, and even canceled a buy order for call options after considering my previous evaluation of its potential in conjunction with my sense of the market's likely direction. It broke out yesterday. Sigh.

When I look at most of the leaders, they're at the top of their charts. Some of their fundamentals are deteriorating, some have become fully valued. I'm too scared to buy them at the top, so what now?

Start over. A fresh screen. Forward P/E below 20, current P/E above 20 to catch earnings growth. Sequential sales growth in at least 4 of the last 8 quarters, at least 4 instances of YoY earnings (including estimates) or sales acceleration, and optionable. Tada ...

(35) potential new best friends. I prefer the ones coming out of a light consolidation: PCP TSRA NIHD AXE & AMAT. The rest are either beaten up, choppy, or at the top. I'm ignoring airline stocks JBLU and DAL because of the whole TSA thing (I wish I could short them!). In fact, I'm looking to ditch my well in-the-money LCC spread for a modest profit instead of waiting for it to tank by January expiration.

G'luck folks!



(*) OBCHX up for 10 straight weeks. Down the last two. Not a coincidence.

Oops

I called that one right, didn't I. DJIA +173, Naz +38, SnP +18. I guess after a week of sell-offs and lackluster rebounds I was sensing a trend. Today's enthusiasm for the GM IPO, good news on Ireland and the jobs report, and no bad news today with regard to China moved everything up. But I'm not convinced. Maybe I just want some consolidation so I can get some good entry points. We'll see.

Today's trades: none. Bull call spreads for NTAP, PWER, and WATG close tomorrow. Fingers crossed.

Reversal alerts: 88 alerts, 83 in my screened database, 17 meet forward P/E and growth requirements.

Baiting the Trap?

Today was not so bad, right? Feels like a bull trap to me.

Trades: none. A few were pretty close to selling.

Reversal alerts: (t2) ANDS & FRPT. (hlr) ATAX BNCN SCHL & UFPT.

Reset Button

DJIA -174, Naz -44, SnP -22. Those greedy profit takers. Oh wait, that's me.

The bad news is really bad, the good news is only encouraging. So I tightened up the trailing stop loss orders this morning; anywhere from a dime to 3% below yesterday's close. And off they went ... AMAT (+7.9%), CHK (+3.1%), CRZO (+8.8%), OMG (+23.6%) and YGE (-9%*). None of my options sold.

The plan is to curtail buying and close out the options as sanely as possible until conditions change.

The value-sales port has dropped to a 22.7% gain.

Reversal alerts: (t2) FPFC. (hlr) ASIA GILD KRA & WTS. In a better environment I could dabble in the last four based on chart patterns (and reasonable fundamentals) alone. Um, not now.

(*) Still net positive for YGE.

Shaky Ground

I'm still buying here but not feeling good about it. This morning I thought we might be coming out of last week's slump but the day's action sure didn't help to confirm it.

Today's trades:
BRKS hit the trailing stop (+8.7%).

I bought VSEA stock and Dec. calls.

I rolled my Nov. PWER ($9.06)  8/10 bull call spread to an 8/9 spread. That reduces my cost but also locks in a loss since now there's no way the value of the spread will ever cover my cost. But I think minimizing my loss here is the best I  can realistically hope for.

Reversal alerts: (t2) KMB & QCOM, (hlr) CTSH DOX GRMN NBIX RAH SONA & SPIL. QCOM is a marginal pick here, based on valuation. Modest growth and the chart pattern doesn't make a stronger case.

Fat Turkeys

have come home to roost and are weighing everything down. DJIA -91, Naz -37, SnP -14.

It has been a disappointing week. I expected more trailing stop loss orders to trigger today but the close ones held their ground. LGL and YGE aren't protected yet and are down (15.9%) and (7%) respectively. I don't like to put in stop loss order for a position until its made some profit or found a base. (A lot of "reversal" stocks tend to drop again in the first week or two before getting traction so I like to wait on them.)

If the markets continue to deteriorate I'll tighten up the stops and sell the laggards and post-November options.

Trades: I bought more VECO near the day's low, and I'll look to add calls if it finds support next week.

Reversal alerts: CRXL, KAR, and RYAAY. RYAAY is the best of the litter here but nothing special.

I moved VSEA ($32.04) back into my top watchlist (potential buys). Good growth, valuation, and rising earnings estimates.

The value-sales portfolio dropped this week but is still holding a nice +26.3% gain.

Down with Cisco

CSCO missed which left the indexes trying to dig out of a hole all day. DJIA -74, Naz -23, SnP -5.

However a few of my picks with earnings surprises or good mojo were hitting new highs: BEXP, BIDU & WLL. ANR, BRKS & CRZO also had nice gains. LGL and PWER lost ground, CBAI ran out of steam.

Trades: ASML hit the trailing stop (+5.0%). My Dec BIDU spread sold early (+81.6%).

Reversal alerts: GILD MRK SUPG and HGSI. Meh.

Fake Out

The market's drop this morning led me to take some money off of the table.

Trades:
FMCN ($25.25) hit the trailing stop (+6.1%) leaving me with a Jan 22.50/25 spread.

The rest of my VECO limit buy order filled.

I start out selling Dec 19 CHK ($23.41) calls to cover the cost of my Dec 18 calls. Then the limit order for the spread (at slight discount) sold immediately (+36% on call cost basis). I'd have been better off just selling the call since there was no upside in exchange for more risk, delay, and commission. I still have CHK stock.

I sold 2/3 of my CBAI since it's gone up 35% and 33% the last two days. It was underwater for quite a while so I was glad to finally exit with a profit. The last lot is up 88% so we'll see what happens tomorrow.

Reversal alerts: nothing worth repeating.

Backsliding

Some stocks are backsliding, others are surging ahead. Industry peers are moving in opposite directions. Odd.

Trades: none:

Reversals: t2: APEI NVTL PFE TRLG WX. hlr: CTSH FORD SAVB.

PFE has fairly strong growth with the right valuation but chart patterns suggest that it won't be moving up very fast. TRLG has modest growth and a fair valuation, and chart patterns that suggest a break-out from the bottom. It doubled for me the first time I bought it so I have fond memories of TRLG. But this time the valuation and novelty of the brand aren't as compelling.

Still Going

Trades: I bought VECO again. Same old story, triple digit earnings and sales growth, P/E falling from 10 to 6.3, rising earnings estimates.

Reversal alerts: t2: LOGI, hlr: CLX CRME TNP. Nothing interesting here.

A Good Week

Trades: I picked up some LGL shares. No options are available.

Reversal alerts: RTIX SGK & ANW ACP. Not very interesting.

The value-sales port finished the week at +28.6%.

My holdings are performing well overall. Exceptions - PWER is just a tad underwater, SKX is going to leave a mark, and CBAI is just an expensive lottery ticket as I dollar cost average to 1,000,000 shares.

O.M.G.

What a day! DJIA +220 Naz +37 SnP +23.

Trades:
LOW wasn't moving and I wasn't fond of its sub-5% sales growth so I had a limit sell order in which triggered. +6.6%

My $5 NFLX spread sold early for $4.90. +37.4%

Reversal alerts: t2: BMS CLB COLB EXC LGL MLR NTWK RAS. hlr: FNBN MDCO NCI RAS RF RTIX SAVB SNV.

I really like LGL (f c) with its P/E falling from 22.7 to 8, solid triple digit earnings growth, and 74% sales growth (MRQ YoY). BMS (c f) is okay here too.

The value-sales port is up 27.1%.

Don't Buy It

Don't gamble; take all your savings and buy some good stock and hold it till it goes up, then sell it. If it don't go up, don't buy it. Will Rogers

I've always appreciated the retrospective humor of the last sentence, but also wondered if it should be taken literally. That is, in the IBD sense of "Buy High, Sell Higher" or "Stocks hitting new highs tend to hit more new highs".

That would certainly be the case lately with BEXP BIDU CSTR FMCN NFLX NTAP & VSH. Even LCC.

So can a case be made for bottom fishing? Not so much in this market. In other years, bottom reversals have tended to be late bloomers catching up with their peers, or companies whose business dynamics had just changed for the better and they were beginning to be noticed. But not now. So look for me to go with the "strong getting stronger".

Trades: ANR hit its 8% trailing stop loss orders at the inverse peak of the not so Republican Rally for gains between +0.7% and +3.4%. Hey, anything green is better than a loss.

Reversal alerts: (unfiltered) t2: ARIA NYNY OCNF UTSI. hlr: CRME CWT FMER MI NTWK SBIB UTSI. Here you either have to gamble on a bank or pharma, or park your money in a utility with single digit sales growth. Pass.

Election Rally

Dow +64 Naz +21 SnP +9. I'll take it.

PWER, YGE, and BRKS finally rebounded a bit.

Trades: COCO dropped 8% at the open when they whacked their earnings and enrollment estimates. I sold my Nov spread and went from a 43% gain at yesterday's close to a (5.1%) loss. I may try again once the new estimates are digested and the price stabilizes.

Reversal alerts: LOCM WHR OCFC PRSP CTRN ICLR MOH MLR ICUI UTL JJSF GBCI IDXX & TBBK.

LOCM MOH & MLR and maybe UTL stand out slightly and may warrant further investigation.

Yuck

Not a pretty day for the market. Up, down, sideways.

PWER took a hit, -8.5%. It gets an outperform rating and bounces around like this. Dunno.

Reversal alerts: (17) filtered down to CQB TEVA TESS ACTU TNP MRTN ACV & LFT. Nothing interesting here.

Up Again

Another decent week. The value-sales port is up 20.4%.

Reversal alerts: (10) filtered down to UTSI FBC PQ GTXI CHL JJSF THS & ACV.

Seeing Red

at least that's what my watchlist looks like. Stocks from my watchlist bucking the trend with 3% gains or more are FLEX IDCC AMP JBL TSYS AMD KGC & DIOD.

Trades:
SKX tanked 18.2% today. I covered the short call (Jan spread). I'm hoping to sell the long call into some kind of rebound.

CSTR ($46.26) hit its 8% trailing stop (+6.9%). That leaves me with a Jan $39/44 bull call spread.

My limit orders went through for the CHK calls and stock, and the CRZO stock.

Reversal alerts: (16) filtered down to (11) by forward P/E (ascending)  DVN TESS CLX BLK BCH THS LGFI BRK SNH FHN & ORA.

CHK CRZO buy, SKX sell

I'm bidding on CRZO (c) stock, and stock and calls for CHK (c). CHK is moving up pre-market though.

I'm exiting SKX ... somehow.

SIMG?

Silicon Image, the inventor of the DVI, HDMI, and SATA audio video and data interfaces popped 35.8% today.

Why I asked? I just looked at them last week and saw a yearly loss of ($1.18)/share on a $4.62 stock. Revenues had been falling by double-digit percentages (-52, -40, -15%). There was a glimmer of hope in that the MRQ's sales were up 19.6%, and earnings were $0.02/share. Projected earnings were $0.05 and 0.03/share for the next two quarters. Whoop-tee-doo.

So today they announce quarterly earnings of $0.12/share (vs. 5c estimated) and revenue of $60M vs. 34-37, then $44.6M over the last year. So now they have a forward P/E of 12.9, just like everybody else. There's mention of back-royalties, so maybe their lawyers have hit pay dirt and opened up some revenue streams. The proverbial magic cow that laid the golden egg ... or something like that. :-) We'll see.

Don't get me wrong. I love their technology, and owned them when no one (I knew) knew what SATA was. But SIMG led me to coin the term "serial disappointer". They'd run good for a while, then blammo, all gone. I went on a cruise; they tanked 26% in one day. (That's a good reason to put [trailing] stop loss orders in before you go on vacation.) Somehow I managed to make some decent money when it was all done.

So call me skeptical and don't be surprised if I short SIMG. Or go long. I'm really just a little perplexed and need to round up a little more research.

Happy Hunting!

Addendum: Former Skeptic & MHL.

New Highs

Among the stocks hitting new 52-week highs today were BIDU, LCC, NFLX , NTAP and VSH. Oh yeah, I own these.

No trades.

After trailing down over the last few days some sectors/industries were caught an updraft and triggered reversal alerts A mix of financial, oil/oil services, and retail stocks. Sixteen total, 12 of which have a reasonable forward P/E. Best to worst in that respect were CHK WATG BK PBI LEG MW CRZO  BBT AVP COLM CKXE & COLB.

Near Misses

SBS and ASIA have gotten ahead of my limit orders so I'll wait for another opportunity to get in before they move up.

Reversal alerts: (t2) HRB, (hlr) FREED & IRIS. FREED is the third shipper to trigger a reversal alert in two days.

Riding the Wave

Trades: Can't stay away from YGE ($11.88 f c) here so I bought more stock to add to my Dec 10 calls. Triple digit earnings growth, a forward PE of 11.5, and rising earnings estimates. What's not to like?

I also have a low-ball limit order in for ASIA should it pull back a bit.

Reversal alerts: 19 pared down to 6 having a reasonable forward P/E. SOLF SBS FRO TNP CTRN THS.

SBS ($45.67 f c)  was a winner for me and has pulled back sharply from recent highs. Earnings estimates are holding steady and its forward P/E is 5.7. Earnings are positive but variable. Sales are steady and improving (MRQ was 9% YoY).

I'll probably buy stock and calls here if it seems to be getting its footing. The reversal chart has a good pattern and the script (t2) is 3 for 3 trades.

FRO and TNP are shippers. I'd wait for news of an improving economy. They also seem to track oil and steel (and probably other commodities) but break out quickly when good news hits. Others I track in the industry are EXM FREED NAT and PRGN.

Sort of Up Week

Trades: none.

Reversal alerts: (t2) REGN RMD, (hlr) GAN GRNB JDSA URBN. Nothing compelling here.

All my stocks (except sub-penny stock CBAI) are in positive territory. Three of my five Nov call spreads are well in the money; i.e., trading above the short call. The other two are in the money (vs. intrinsic value). I'm 7:1 for the month in stock trades (closed positions). I'm proceeding with cautious optimism.

The value-sales port rebounded to a 17.6% gain.

TSL Recap

My trailing stop loss orders are intended to take me out of the market and move me into cash when the markets turn south. Heeding the warning created by a salvo of TSLs firing off has served me well. But sometimes market volatility causes them to trigger as well. I'm capturing them here just to keep them in mind.

10/04 sold LOCM @ $4.01 (repurchased calls), now at $4.45
10/06 sold MSPD @ $7.45, now at $7.26
10/08 sold YGE @ $12.59 (repurchased calls), now at $11.62
10/15 sold PWER @ $10.08 (repurchased spread), now at $10.19
10/19 sold BEXP @ $19.51 (repurchased spread), now at $20.18
10/21 sold AEIS @ $13.67, now at $13.93

I also made "preemptive" sales of ATHR and VSEA to protect modest profit.

Big Fizzle

Trades: AEIS hit the trailing stop (+5.19%). The FMCN Jan spread buy order went through.

Reversal alerts: (t2) ABCB AMLN COST FBC SFI, (hlr) ABCB OPTC SKT SWS USG.

COST is too high here considering its modest growth. My pick is ASIA (f c) with good earnings growth though sales are a bit flat.

-VSEA, +FMCN, LOW

Sold VSEA stock (+2.4%).
Bought FMCN stock (pending spread order).
Bought Dec LOW calls.

And Back Up ...

DIA +129, Naz +20, SnP +12.

Trades: Bought Dec calls for YGE and LCOM. The plan is to sell near-the-money calls when we get closer to expiration. Bought a NTAP Nov $46/47 call spread.

NFLX is up big after-hours.

Reversal alerts: I ended up with 12 alerts. Most warrant further research.

Not What We Were Looking For

DIA -165, Naz -44, SnP -19. Ouch.

Trades: BEXP hit the 10% trailing stop (+7.15%) so I left a little too much on the table there. While that was selling I put in a bid for the Nov spread. I got that and PWER at a reduced bid - and still paid too much.
BEXP ($19.61) Nov 17/19 @ $1.35
PWER ($9.87) Nov 8/10 @ $1.45

Reversal Alerts: OCN and ASX, GMR. Pass.

Monday Shopping

A decent day today, DIA +81, Naz +12, SnP +8.5. Kind of a mixed bag for gainers/losers.

I got tired of waiting for ATHR to move up and decided to sell while I still had a small gain, stock +1.25%, call spread +9.47%. That of course got it moving in the right direction.

I bought some in the money Nov bull call spreads today.
COCO ($4.96) 4/5 for $0.57.
NFLX ($153) 135/140 for $3.50.
I still have a limit order in for PWER.

LOCM was up10% today.

Reversal alerts: INSP. Take a pass.

Relief

Nothing tanked going into the close, so that was good and the gains shown below held up. I'll be looking to buy some Nov call spreads next week.

Reversal alerts: CTSH and ANGO INSP RMD TACT & WRLD. Nothing I'd buy here. Most of the fundamentals are mediocre (at best) except for CTSH which is hitting new highs.

The value-sale port is now up +17.1%.
 

Here's my Stock Performance chart.

I ran a simulation with the t2 reversal script from early July. Here are the results.

PWER Down, GOOG Up

PWER has been selling off since an initial spike yesterday and hit the 10% trailing stop this morning (+15.4%).

GOOG is up 9.8% on earnings news. I'm not very bullish on GOOG but won't short it here either.

YGE continues to show strength with good growth and valuation.

YONG is heading into a period of lower earnings. I regret missing the run here, but I'm going to sit it out for a while.

LCOM still looks interesting, but I don't know what to make of the price activity. There doesn't seem to be much support for the stock.

Flat-liner

Not much going on today.

Trades: One leg (short call) of one of my Oct. VECO spreads was assigned so I had to cover the short position. I also did an "execute-and-sell" order on the long side because I was afraid the price would drop after yesterday's pop. VECO actually went up 65 cents before I pulled the trigger.+89.4% net, which was better than the 67% gain (less fees) for the spread without the price differential.

Remaining Oct. spreads for VECO and SBS expire tomorrow, probably at max value. (+82.7% and +76.7% (less fees) respectively.)

Reversal Alerts: None.

Rocket Fuel

Yep, that seems to be what this market is running on. I can't say I understand it, but if the market is going up, then the market is going up ... and that's all I need to know. The trailing stop loss orders do the rest. So far, only two of them fired off, and everything except b.c. spreads BRKS and SKX is profitable now - some are very much so.

Trades: My WATG ($10.17) Nov 7.50 calls (bought @ $2.10) had a nice pop today so I sold Nov 10 calls (sold for $1.20) to convert it to bullish call spread. That lowered my cost and break-even point, and raised my expected return and profits considerably.

Reversal alerts: t2 script BRCD CL PCLN ROG USMO. hlr script ASX CBAN CTXS RMBS.

The value-sales port continues to crank - now up 17.3%.
DIA +75, Naz +23, SnP +3.

CL & FLIR

were today's reversal alerts.

Monday Alerts

Some old names showed up as reversal alerts today today: AIB AMZN ELX and AMCC ANSS BRCD.

Interesting Week

Lots of ups and downs. Not sure of what to make of it otherwise.

Trades: My AMAT limit buy order went off in the morning. YGE hit the 10% trailing stop for a +10.2% gain. Limit orders for stock and bull call spreads in RES failed to connect before it pulled away. I really expected the market to end down because of the jobs report.

Reversal alerts: OSHC yesterday and STEC today.

The value-sales port is now up +14.26%.

Another Fun Day

MSPD hit its trailing stop. I bought stock and bull call spreads on ATHR (and paid too much).

Reversal alerts: EGBN.

And Up Again

DJIA +193 Naz +55 SnP +10.

I put in limit orders for AMAT- they missed.

Lots of reversal alerts today. Most are simply resuming a good run (high going higher).

I like ATHR (f c) here. Sequential and triple digit sales grow, strong earnings growth, good value. Chart-wise, it's coming off the bottom on a second and weaker (than the first) reversal alert. Second and third alerts tend to be fairly successful. The alert itself is weak, but that is probably because the fundamentals are strong enough to prevent the level of capitulation necessary for a strong reversal alert.

That's Dissappointing

We took a little pounding today. Sad to see some of the greens turning red.

LOCM hit the 10% trailing stop today.

Alerts: NCTY & VRX for the t2 script and OSHC & WBMD for the other.

So-So Week

Not much carry though from last Firday's rush. I did manage to get into a few good positions though ... and the rest will hit their 10% trailing stops soon enough (worst case).

Reversal alerts: KR SKYE & TGP.

The value-sales port nudged up for the week to a +11.89% gain.

Thursday Alerts

Reversal alerts: GRNB, ARNA (tanked - was $8, now $1.56), BIIB (my pick) and GILT.

Casting the Net

far and wide and gonna let the trailing stop loss orders do the work. Tired of creating test portfolios that just go up. Time for a real one using the same criteria.

Trades posted below.

Value-sales port: 10 of 18 were gainers, port up +12.9%.

Reversal alerts: DRC (t2) then CBD DTE NCTY & TGP filtered only on what appears to be a viable chart pattern and totally without regard for fundamentals. There, you've been warned!

Gone Shoppin'

Bought stock in AEIS ANR ASML BEXP BRKS & PWER.

Bought bull call spreads on BEXP & BRKS.

Treading Water

17 of the 18 stocks in the value-sales port were up today, putting it at a +11.9% gain, 13 winners, 5 losers.

No trades.

Reversal alerts: t2 script alerts on FIZZ and UWN, the other on BFS CVC & QGEN.

Monday Give Back

BIDU's going parabolic - at least until it comes crashing back to earth. I wish I had reliable trailing stop loss orders for options.

My October VSH calls sold today (+15%) when they nudged into profitability.

That puts me at 40% cash in my accounts. I'd buy more but so many stocks seem to be at the top of their range - not where I feel comfortable buying. Also, the sales and earnings growth is waning for a lot of the prospects I've looked at.

There were (8) reversal alerts of which only FIZZ and ATI looked interesting.

Sept Perf Chart

Link to chart...

Holy Cow

What a day. DJIA +198, Naz +54 SnP +24.

I started out ditching my Oct. puts. Bad picks I guess, they just kept nudging up. It's infinitely easier to recover from a partial loss than a total wipe-out.  It still stings but it's part of the game and I'm doing well otherwise. ALSK (-32.8%), BMRN (-48.4%). Sigh.

My nearly worthless YONG Oct 7.50 call revived enough to trigger my limit sell order, -88.6% there.

Okay, I sold the puts because the market was going up, right? But then I sold my Oct. BIDU (+71.2%) and CSCO (+54%) calls too. Because the market is going down? Dunno. I think I just like shifting money from overbought to oversold stocks rather than letting my winners run.

I bought LCOM again, and MSPD from one of my test porfolios - the one that hasn't gone parabolic yet.

Reversal alerts: t2 script ARCC, and for the other script, ALJ ARCC (again) ATLS ESGR FSS & RKT.

And now the value-sales port, up +11%:

+YGE -VSEA

Thursday's activity ...

Bought YGE shares.

Sold VSEA ($27.35) Nov 30/35 out of the money bull call spreads (-60.5%) to capture the remaining time value and hopefully redeploy the capital with better prospects. (I'm still long w/ VSEA shares though down -3.5%.) Of course it's looking to gap up this morning.

LGL dropped after announcing secondary offering following a nice run-up with substantially higher volume. There is no insider trading. Right.

LOCM remains strong.

Reversal alerts: Pharmas ARNA & ICLR plus AIRM.

Two Steps Forward

then the inevitable one, two, or three steps back.

LOCM sold today (+12.5%). I had a 10% trailing stop loss order under it and yesterday's spike pushed the trigger price up. I probably would have reset it if I'd noticed it, but banking a nice 2-day profit is not the worst thing either.

I bought WATG calls yesterday.

Reversal alerts: Two alerts, but only YGE (c) is interesting here. Triple digit earnings growth, 80% revenue growth (MRQ), and rising earnings estimates and a P/E falling from 28 to 12. Previous trades were mixed with the profitable trades netting over 20% each and the losing trades were negligible until I went to the well one too many times with a big position that took a big hit and put me in the red with YGE. It's not my best prospect ... or the worst.

Timing is Everything

I liked where I thought LOCM was headed once it came off of the bottom so I bid on a tracking position (60% normal size) on LOCM this morning. I put in a limit order at $3.52, above the previous closing price of $3.48. It filled at the open for $3.46 (the low of the day) before gaining 18%. Woohoo!

The flip side is my TNP call which expired worthless (-100%) Friday. [Boohoo]

The value-sales port is now up 8.4%.

The unfiltered reversal alerts are ASIA AWI BECN CWCO INET INT and CWCO HIBB KWK UNS WPO.

Third "Up" Week

It's hard to ignore the trend. But ignoring all of the negative commentary seems to be a good strategy.

No reversal alerts for Friday. This week's snapshot of the value-sales port ...

LOCM - Watchlist it.

The chart scans yielded only two reversal alerts, one of which is LOCM (local.com). Its skimming along the bottom of its chart at $3.56 but earnings growth is strong, its YoY revenue growth has been around 70% for the last three quarters, and has a forward P/E of 7.2. Earnings estimates have been rising and it has a recent analyst upgrade from neutral to buy. No options.

New Positions

+CSTR OMG & WLL (stock), plus bull call spreads on the first two.

A Good Day is ...

when most of the longs go up and most of the shorts go down. Nice to see the portfolio moving in the right direction.

VSEA was initiated with a overweight rating from JPMorgan. The nerve of UBS downgrading it from a buy to neutral. (I hope JPM is right!)

WATG spiked up the first thing this morning and trailed down the rest of the day. Keep an eye on it.

LGL continues to set the woods on fire. Me so sad.

No reversal alerts.

What Makes a Strong Stock

Here's are histograms for each of my exported metrics for the top performing 100 stocks over the last 4 weeks.

Choppy Ride for a "Good" Week

VectorVest is advising caution because while their index was up, the improvement was very meager and volatile.

I spent the week trying to set up good long positions in BIDU, CSCO, VECO, and ANR. When BIDU dropped, I was at one point able to sell my losing position at cost (intrinsic value was half my cost) and buy a lower spread with better pricing and potential. I also tried to get into LGL but that one got away.

Reversal alerts for the week were sparse - only 7 for the whole week for 2 chart scanners. Of those, only LGL and ISTA were of interest.


Finally, the value-sales port.

Mixed Bag

Yesterday CIB hit its 4% trailing stop loss trigger for a +8.2% gain. Bought CSCO calls and a BIDU bull call spread.

VSEA has been downgraded and is down a few percent today. Let's see, triple digit sales and earning growth, increasing earnings estimates (yf), and a forward P/E of 10. I think I'll stay long.

VECO is on sale today too. -4%.

I'm trying to go long on LGL but it keeps moving ahead of my limit order.

New Screens

Here are screens from the stock universe and last week's reversal alerts.

General Screen

Alerts Screen

One Good Week

I spent the week shifting from bearish to cautiously bullish - selling most of my puts and buying calls and call spreads. The value-sales protfolio improved as did most of the perf chart.

I'll try to post some screens tomorrow.

Riding the Roller Coaster (Market)

Sold LEAP (+14.75%) puts on the strong market open, bought BIDU calls and a Jan VECO 33/36 bull call spread for $1.51.

Sniping Away

I was a little disappointed with AAPL's "bounce" yesterday. I had a profit but not enough margin to warrant hanging on and hoping for the best with a much larger than normal position ... so I sold the calls (+7.43%). Likewise, I didn't see much more downside for STX so I opted to sell the time value I had left in the Sept. puts (+7.63%). Admittedly, these are small gains for options trades, but given the market I'm happy with 'em. Besides this blog's not titled "Outta da Park Stocks!".

Call for Put

Based on the futures I sold the EBAY (-9.17%) puts at the open and bought AAPL calls. So far so good ... fingers crossed.

Trimming Up

I opted to sell my puts on FGP (-19%). It's just running too well. I also started feeling like CRM and ATHR could bounce and take me negative so they went too  (+5.4% and +21.5% respectively). That still leaves puts LEAP & SGT (both maintaining a profit) and ALSK and BMRN (both flat). Plus (5) bull call spreads and about as many stocks (all long).

VectorVest is calling for aggressive traders to go bottom fishing, and for conservative traders to consider entering the market with a bias to the upside.

Finally, our value-sales port from early Monday morning.

Bear++

I watched my AMD and MU shares trade flat in an up market yesterday morning then sell off a few percent. They can't keep going down can they? Then the same thing happened again this morning. Sell All Shares -> Market -> Execute. Done!

I'm still holding out hope for VSH, VSEA, and YONG. CIB is bucking the trend by showing a profit AND going up.

Bought puts for LEAP. 5 of 8 put positions are profitable, the other 3 are at break-even (0).

Bear Trades

Sold FLEX calls. Bought puts on ALSK FGP & BMRN.

Fingers crossed!

Hoping for Another Up Day

We're due for a few "up" days which I'll use to liquidate more long positions and go short with those funds.

Today's trades: My SIGM bull call spread hit its sell limit (+13%) and sold to close. Bought CRM (c) puts.

There are plenty of reversal alerts but you can't play them without getting whipsawed to death. Its seems better to go with good stock that are running well or just short bad ones that are overvalued. Only half my puts are profitable as of the close but as a group they're doing well. CIB (c) has been cranking along.

The Biweekly Weekly Update

I've recently been investing my time in activities that have proven far more profitable than being long in the market - like sleeping and watching television. Seriously though, I'm having trouble seeing where optimism will be rewarded long term. There's this up-lifting little piece on the government's Enron Accounting. There's last Thursday's stock performance chart. Go about halfway down and note all the yellow cells. Those are the positions that just went negative for those time frames - i.e., more investments that just went underwater. I'll throw in my value-sales port that we've been tracking. It got clobbered two weeks ago, and improved slightly last week.

Recent Trades: Let's see ... I did go long with more shares of VSH, and opened a position in CIB. My bull call spreads sold for NFLX (+113%) and MRVL (+13%). I bought puts on ATHR, EBAY, and STX based on Shaeffers Research. We'll see how that pans out.

Monday, Monday

I thought I'd pick up a little SKX (f c) at a recent low. It dipped and triggered my buy order ... then just kept going down ... -8.8% for the day. Sigh. No news on why yet.

Alerts: (16) alerts on the reversal script and two on the t2 script. LCRD has a strong reversal pattern here - too bad their number are so bad I can't envision a winning play here. COCO is showing its 5th reversal signal. Most decent stocks take off on their 2nd or 3rd try. But the smart money so far has been short COCO. The other charts are too ragged to consider.

14 of 18 stocks in the value-sales portfolio were gainers today.

Weekly Recap

I'm trying to take a step back and look at the markets on a week-to-week basis and filter out some of the day-to-day noise. The weekly charts show gradual improvement. The value-sales port worked well (below).

Trades: I went long on AMD, MU, and VSEA stocks. I'll be happy to snipe a small profit from MU and let it go.

On the options front, OMG ran up and triggered a limit sell order (+12.9%). Not that I didn't think about moving the limit up earlier and forgot ... oh well. Bought bull call spreads on MRVL, DIOD, and VSEA. MRVL is just a reversal play - I'm hoping to catch a bounce off of the bottom and snipe a small gain. I'm dollar cost averaging on VSEA.

LCC has sold off some and my position is below water right now but I'm considering adding on since the earnings estimates are holding and the P/E's dropping from 237 to 3.75 two quarters out.

Reversal alerts: Not much for the week. There might be a play in QLGC based on the chart and the performance of some of the semiconductor and tech stocks. It's P/E is falling from 29 to 19 so it's value and growth are modest.

+ AMD MU DIOD MRVL

Bought AMD & MU stock just because they're so depressed though I have concerns about their future earnings. Bought call spreads for DIOD and MRVL with MRVL being mostly a shot at trying to catch a bounce off of the bottom.