DNS -31, +4, -2. Positions JDSU, WTW, SSW, MNTA and HAYN did well today.
I'm trying to figure out why I'm so optimistic when I buy. But let the stock go up a nickel and I'm looking for the exit. I can't buy SSW or RES because they've gone parabolic. PTEN and MNTA aren't far behind, not to mention BEXP, WLL, or RBCN. Buying at new 52-week highs is a challenge for me.
Likewise hanging on for the big gains that really build your nest egg has become a problem for me too. Maybe I've become too risk adverse, or distrustful of the markets or companies or the vagaries of the masses. Perhaps just having a working order system for trailing stop loss orders for options might do wonders.
Okay, now that you know I sell too early, you can adjust your strategy. I'm going to go count my blessings now.
PTEN made it onto VectorVest's leader board (#5) so look out. RES is at the top.
Trades!
I got nervous about LH and figured it had gone up more than I expected to so I sold the May calls (+19.8%) then watched it go up some more.
PLAB was in the money so I opted to cash out the April calls. +16.2%
Despite the numbers, SPRD insists on going the wrong way. Shares sold. -7.4%
I bought some May XLE calls.
Reversal alerts: (1) LDR.
Thursday, March 31, 2011
Wednesday, March 30, 2011
Another Good One
DNS +72, +20, +9.
Trades:
I converted some April calls to bull call spreads: MNTA and PTEN with about two weeks to go.
I sold half of my SSW calls to ring the register and play with the house's money. +169%
I had one June MNTA call contract left over somehow. Sold that. +12.5%
I sold some ENTR calls since the stock seemed to be fading again (while everyone else was going up). +4.0%
Reversal alerts: (5) CIEN, AMCC, JDSU, PFBX & WBMD.
Trades:
I converted some April calls to bull call spreads: MNTA and PTEN with about two weeks to go.
I sold half of my SSW calls to ring the register and play with the house's money. +169%
I had one June MNTA call contract left over somehow. Sold that. +12.5%
I sold some ENTR calls since the stock seemed to be fading again (while everyone else was going up). +4.0%
Reversal alerts: (5) CIEN, AMCC, JDSU, PFBX & WBMD.
Tuesday, March 29, 2011
Monday, March 28, 2011
Good Start, Bad Finish
Well, if your stocks were up this morning they probably weren't at the close. DNS -23, -12, -4. CAAS and LULU did well, as did alternative energy stocks JASO, YGE, and JKS.
Trades: see previous post.
Reversal alerts: (2), but wouldn't touch 'em.
Trades: see previous post.
Reversal alerts: (2), but wouldn't touch 'em.
Buys
Added stock in REITS ARR and STWD.
Added call options for Schaeffer picks ARUN, JDSU, and WTW.
Added to RBCN positions (call options and stock).
Bought RES shares.
Rolled the lower call for the JKS spread, buying $5 intrinsic for $3.40.
Added call options for Schaeffer picks ARUN, JDSU, and WTW.
Added to RBCN positions (call options and stock).
Bought RES shares.
Rolled the lower call for the JKS spread, buying $5 intrinsic for $3.40.
Friday, March 25, 2011
Strong Finish
Though the markets trailed off late in the day, we still had a great week. DNS +50, +7, +4.
SSW caught an upgrade today that put it at the top of my watch list. New position PLAB jumped out of the box. CF has been recovering. GTLS and RES watch me from the rear view mirror as they speed away. And I underbid FARO the other day.
Trades: I bought PLAB shares and April calls. I converted my April SSW calls to a call spread by selling calls.
The values-sales portfolio recovered to +47.2%,
Reversal alerts: (16) - maybe EWBC, MD or QSFT.
 | |
| 10%+ in Two Weeks |
Trades: I bought PLAB shares and April calls. I converted my April SSW calls to a call spread by selling calls.
The values-sales portfolio recovered to +47.2%,
 |
| Value-sales portfolio, +42.7% |
Reversal alerts: (16) - maybe EWBC, MD or QSFT.
Holdings
FWIW ...
Stocks: AMP ANR MNTA PTEN RBN SPRD VECO WLL.
Options (calls & call spreads): ANR BEXP ENTR HAYN JKS LH MNTA PTEN RBCN RBN SSW TTMI VSEA VSH.
Stocks: AMP ANR MNTA PTEN RBN SPRD VECO WLL.
Options (calls & call spreads): ANR BEXP ENTR HAYN JKS LH MNTA PTEN RBCN RBN SSW TTMI VSEA VSH.
Thursday, March 24, 2011
Like That
Yep, that's what I'm talking about. DNS +86, +38, +12.
OMN and ANAD gained over 10% today. ANAD alerted the other day but it looked like the stock was going to stair-step down and drag bottom. Maybe not. OMN's P/E is rising from 3 to 3.2 with erratic numbers.
Trades: see previous post.
Reversal alerts: (24).
Those estimated to have 50% yearly earnings growth two quarters out are DRJ (55.6), JDSU (34), PJC (18), PPDI (15) & ENDP (10.5) [ STOCK (forward P/E) ]. None of the charts are compelling.
Of those sporting forward P/Es below 20, ordered by the number of quarters of accelerating sales and earnings, whose charts and reversal indicators I liked were LH, QCOM, and TICC (well, not the chart so much).
OMN and ANAD gained over 10% today. ANAD alerted the other day but it looked like the stock was going to stair-step down and drag bottom. Maybe not. OMN's P/E is rising from 3 to 3.2 with erratic numbers.
Trades: see previous post.
Reversal alerts: (24).
Those estimated to have 50% yearly earnings growth two quarters out are DRJ (55.6), JDSU (34), PJC (18), PPDI (15) & ENDP (10.5) [ STOCK (forward P/E) ]. None of the charts are compelling.
Of those sporting forward P/Es below 20, ordered by the number of quarters of accelerating sales and earnings, whose charts and reversal indicators I liked were LH, QCOM, and TICC (well, not the chart so much).
Ready to Go
Nice Rally
Wednesday, March 23, 2011
Tuesday, March 22, 2011
Accumulating
DNS-18, -8, -5. Nice 14.5% hit on HNR today (reversal alert yesterday).
Trades:
I went back to old favs PTEN and WLL for some small accounts (shares). I thought PTEN was a little stronger than RES.
I bought April calls for RBCN and PTEN.
Reversal alerts: (20). Old names FARO and NTE jump out but I need to check the database.
FARO's forward P/E is 35, but with good sales and earning growth, and rising estimates.
LH has very modest growth and a forward P/E of 15, but the earnings estimates have been rising.
ADM's growth is flat but a forward P/E of 10.
ASGN has to shake off the last quarter's loss then could get to a P/E of 15. Sales are rising.
FDS has modest growth for a forward P/E of 27.
NTE's forward P/E is below 14 with good sales growth. But the stock has been weak chart-wise and the reversal pattern isn't screaming buy.
Trades:
I went back to old favs PTEN and WLL for some small accounts (shares). I thought PTEN was a little stronger than RES.
I bought April calls for RBCN and PTEN.
Reversal alerts: (20). Old names FARO and NTE jump out but I need to check the database.
FARO's forward P/E is 35, but with good sales and earning growth, and rising estimates.
LH has very modest growth and a forward P/E of 15, but the earnings estimates have been rising.
ADM's growth is flat but a forward P/E of 10.
ASGN has to shake off the last quarter's loss then could get to a P/E of 15. Sales are rising.
FDS has modest growth for a forward P/E of 27.
NTE's forward P/E is below 14 with good sales growth. But the stock has been weak chart-wise and the reversal pattern isn't screaming buy.
Monday, March 21, 2011
Back on Track?
It's nice to be moving forward again. DNS +178, +48, +19. I'm certainly ready to put the recent losses behind me.
Brokerage news: optionsXpress is merging with Charles Schwab.
Trades:
I bought shares in ANR, AMP, and MNTA.
I bought call spreads for ANR & BEXP.
I sold my Aug CF call spread after Goldman went bearish on corn prices and CF. Given the stock's behavior, I opted to not wait for it to turn into a loss. +4.8%
I sold my IMAX shares when the tight 1% trailing stop loss order tripped and reduced my loss by a few percent.
I converted my HAYN calls into a bull call spread. I should have waited as it moved even higher. It was just behind CCJ at the top of my watch list.
Oil stocks RES MRO FTO & GPQR are heading up VectorVest's leader board.
Reversal alerts: (55), Those with a decent chart and fundamentals:
t2: APEI ATRO HCSG KLAC LPS MDR MORN RDEN SAP SKH SLB SNI SPRD TDW & WTSLA.
hlr: ATI HNR OSIS & PBH.
Brokerage news: optionsXpress is merging with Charles Schwab.
Trades:
I bought shares in ANR, AMP, and MNTA.
I bought call spreads for ANR & BEXP.
I sold my Aug CF call spread after Goldman went bearish on corn prices and CF. Given the stock's behavior, I opted to not wait for it to turn into a loss. +4.8%
I sold my IMAX shares when the tight 1% trailing stop loss order tripped and reduced my loss by a few percent.
I converted my HAYN calls into a bull call spread. I should have waited as it moved even higher. It was just behind CCJ at the top of my watch list.
Oil stocks RES MRO FTO & GPQR are heading up VectorVest's leader board.
Reversal alerts: (55), Those with a decent chart and fundamentals:
t2: APEI ATRO HCSG KLAC LPS MDR MORN RDEN SAP SKH SLB SNI SPRD TDW & WTSLA.
hlr: ATI HNR OSIS & PBH.
Sunday, March 20, 2011
Screens
The database has been updated and here are the new screens.
50% yearly earnings growth over the next two quarters with 3 quarters of triple digit quarterly sales growth, sorted by quarters of earnings and sales acceleration (descending):
SWK TTMI JKS RBCN.
Those with just 2 quarters of triple digit quarterly sales growth:
CF PVH MNTA RES PTEN ARR STWD.
For those that just want to speculate on top line sales growth, stocks with 3 quarters of triple digit sales growth and a forward P/E of 20 or less:
SWK LDK TRIT TTMI AEIS TSL ARCC JKS NEWN SOL ASYS ASML MSB PWER RBCN SPRD VECO.
50% yearly earnings growth over the next two quarters with 3 quarters of triple digit quarterly sales growth, sorted by quarters of earnings and sales acceleration (descending):
SWK TTMI JKS RBCN.
Those with just 2 quarters of triple digit quarterly sales growth:
CF PVH MNTA RES PTEN ARR STWD.
For those that just want to speculate on top line sales growth, stocks with 3 quarters of triple digit sales growth and a forward P/E of 20 or less:
SWK LDK TRIT TTMI AEIS TSL ARCC JKS NEWN SOL ASYS ASML MSB PWER RBCN SPRD VECO.
Trades Closed (March)
The numbers are in. I corrected CF and MNTA below.
IMAX - This was bought on an acquisition rumor when it spiked above $32. I could have sold it hours later for a 15% gain, but nooooo. It fell back to a lower trading range. I think I was lucky to recover 30% of my investment. Lesson learned, maybe. -70.0% [corrected - shares sold]
NAV - The was a Schaeffer recommended "put sell" that expired worthless, so pure profit here. +++
RBCN - I initially bought calls and later converted it to a bull call spread. It took a bit for this one to come in, but it's been a monster. It's still a prime candidate with sales and earnings growth, and rising estimates. +219%
TTMI - Another bull call spread conversion like RBCN, and also appears in my top growth screen with rising estimates. +82.9%
For the RBCN and TTMI trades, I bought the calls about 7 weeks out and sold higher calls 3 weeks out. In both cases, I bought way-ITM calls, and sold the second least ITM call.
In the case of TTMI ($15.91, was at $18+), selling more intrinsic value (via the $15 strike) took 72% of the money off of the table. When the stock dropped recently, that extra buffer kept me from taking a loss had I sold the $17.50 call.
For RBCN, the two calls would have taken 8 (estimated) and 37% of the money off of the table by selling the higher and lower call respectively. The higher call expired ITM and would have netted more/share ($6.40 vs. $5.05) but had a lower return in percent. The call itself would have netted $8/share with a percent return on par with the lower call. [calculation exclude commissions and the price of the higher call was estimated]
I just wanted to illustrate the trade-offs in selling the more ITM call. Taking money off of the table is a good thing when the market is dicey or you have other places to re-deploy the capital. You percentage return will typically be higher, and your risk and break-even point will always be lower (critical in the TTMI trade). Your net may be lower (*), but so will your antacid and ulcer medication bills.
* for that trade, not counting gains from re-deployed capital.
IMAX - This was bought on an acquisition rumor when it spiked above $32. I could have sold it hours later for a 15% gain, but nooooo. It fell back to a lower trading range. I think I was lucky to recover 30% of my investment. Lesson learned, maybe. -70.0% [corrected - shares sold]
NAV - The was a Schaeffer recommended "put sell" that expired worthless, so pure profit here. +++
RBCN - I initially bought calls and later converted it to a bull call spread. It took a bit for this one to come in, but it's been a monster. It's still a prime candidate with sales and earnings growth, and rising estimates. +219%
TTMI - Another bull call spread conversion like RBCN, and also appears in my top growth screen with rising estimates. +82.9%
For the RBCN and TTMI trades, I bought the calls about 7 weeks out and sold higher calls 3 weeks out. In both cases, I bought way-ITM calls, and sold the second least ITM call.
In the case of TTMI ($15.91, was at $18+), selling more intrinsic value (via the $15 strike) took 72% of the money off of the table. When the stock dropped recently, that extra buffer kept me from taking a loss had I sold the $17.50 call.
For RBCN, the two calls would have taken 8 (estimated) and 37% of the money off of the table by selling the higher and lower call respectively. The higher call expired ITM and would have netted more/share ($6.40 vs. $5.05) but had a lower return in percent. The call itself would have netted $8/share with a percent return on par with the lower call. [calculation exclude commissions and the price of the higher call was estimated]
I just wanted to illustrate the trade-offs in selling the more ITM call. Taking money off of the table is a good thing when the market is dicey or you have other places to re-deploy the capital. You percentage return will typically be higher, and your risk and break-even point will always be lower (critical in the TTMI trade). Your net may be lower (*), but so will your antacid and ulcer medication bills.
* for that trade, not counting gains from re-deployed capital.
Friday, March 18, 2011
Coming Out of the Woods?
I'm remaining cautious until Japan's nuclear crisis turns for the better. DNS +84, +8, +5.5. VDSI was at the top of the watch list today.
Trades:
A lot of my options expired today but I'm going to wait for the positions to close before reporting. OX has many of my positions mis-paired and I've rolled enough short calls to make it even more interesting.
Cramer took a pass on MNTA when a caller asked about it. So look for him to address it early next week. I'll be adding some calls before then.
NVDA and AUDC gave up the lead in the value-sales port and slow and steady VSH snuck into first place. VSH is still sporting a forward P/E of 7.5, but its growth is estimated to stall when sales and earnings level out next year.
Reversal alerts: (95), filtered down to HTGC EFII IDTI SAP PJC & SPRD (sorted by number of quarters with sales and earnings acceleration, descending). Filter is 50% earnings growth from the MRQ to two quarters out.
Trades:
A lot of my options expired today but I'm going to wait for the positions to close before reporting. OX has many of my positions mis-paired and I've rolled enough short calls to make it even more interesting.
 |
| Value-sales portfolio, +41.0% |
NVDA and AUDC gave up the lead in the value-sales port and slow and steady VSH snuck into first place. VSH is still sporting a forward P/E of 7.5, but its growth is estimated to stall when sales and earnings level out next year.
Reversal alerts: (95), filtered down to HTGC EFII IDTI SAP PJC & SPRD (sorted by number of quarters with sales and earnings acceleration, descending). Filter is 50% earnings growth from the MRQ to two quarters out.
Thursday, March 17, 2011
Holding Steady
DNS +161, +19, 17.
GTLS was on my buy list but I missed its 14% gain.
Trades:
Again I opted to close out March options rather than risk a downturn. I made good exit trades here except for not catching the MNTA calendar spread, and getting in such a bad situation with ENTR.
ENTR calls (-87.3%). It's not often I buy a stock that goes down almost every day.
MNTA spread. I put in a limit order for what I thought was a call spread ($2.99 for a $3 spread). But because OX had mis-paired my trade I was actually selling a calendar spread too cheap. -6.2% with a June call outstanding. What a mess.
VSH spread (+15.3%).
Options for IMAX, NAV, RBCN, and TTMI will expire tomorrow.
Reversal alerts: (136). I'll filter these when time permits, but right now I'd have to say if you like it, buy it.
Update: Those with strong earnings growth, descending forward P/E: (31) HSII ETP PRFT EPD CIR BGC MXIM SASR CYT KLAC EGY ORRF & DRYS (7).
GTLS was on my buy list but I missed its 14% gain.
Trades:
Again I opted to close out March options rather than risk a downturn. I made good exit trades here except for not catching the MNTA calendar spread, and getting in such a bad situation with ENTR.
ENTR calls (-87.3%). It's not often I buy a stock that goes down almost every day.
MNTA spread. I put in a limit order for what I thought was a call spread ($2.99 for a $3 spread). But because OX had mis-paired my trade I was actually selling a calendar spread too cheap. -6.2% with a June call outstanding. What a mess.
VSH spread (+15.3%).
Options for IMAX, NAV, RBCN, and TTMI will expire tomorrow.
Reversal alerts: (136). I'll filter these when time permits, but right now I'd have to say if you like it, buy it.
Update: Those with strong earnings growth, descending forward P/E: (31) HSII ETP PRFT EPD CIR BGC MXIM SASR CYT KLAC EGY ORRF & DRYS (7).
Wednesday, March 16, 2011
More Fear
... with more to follow no doubt. DNS -242, -51, -25. Except for CRZO which was rebounding from yesterday, nothing on my watch list gained 5% or more.
Trades:
SCHN hit its trailing stop, -8.3%.
With more risk that reward in this market, I sold some ITM March options: calls for SSW (+42.1%) and bull call spread XLE (+24.6%).
Reversal alerts: (15) of which FIS and BVN are of interest.
Trades:
SCHN hit its trailing stop, -8.3%.
With more risk that reward in this market, I sold some ITM March options: calls for SSW (+42.1%) and bull call spread XLE (+24.6%).
Reversal alerts: (15) of which FIS and BVN are of interest.
Uncharted Territory
DNS -138, -34, -15. Topping my watch list were YGE, NFLX, PWER, JKS, JASO, VDSI, and RBCN (5% or more).
Trades:
I had to ditch my March CF $125/135 spread for a -56.0% loss. Not long ago this stock was soaring above $150 and now it's at $124.78.
I bought protective puts for my SPRD shares.
Reversal alerts: (19). Filtered down to WTI, ANEN & JKS.
Trades:
I had to ditch my March CF $125/135 spread for a -56.0% loss. Not long ago this stock was soaring above $150 and now it's at $124.78.
I bought protective puts for my SPRD shares.
Reversal alerts: (19). Filtered down to WTI, ANEN & JKS.
Monday, March 14, 2011
Not Bad for a Down Day
Of course I'm looking at a bunch of solar stocks. PWER and WFR were up over 10%, JKS, TNP, YGE, JASO and SSW were up over 5%. DNS -51, -15, -8. Part of the gain was due to additions to the Nasdaq Green Energy index, and I suspect some reaction to problems with Japan's nuclear reactors.
Trades:
I bet on the wrong horse today when I bought SPRD shares. I was good for the first 45 minutes at least. SPRD ended near the bottom of my watch list. Grrrr.
I bought an August CF spread for cheap. Yeah!
I had an over-the-close limit buy order in for WFR and still missed it. Grrrr.
I make a good call on my SSW calls. Yeah!
Reversal alerts: (59) of which (54) were in the database. Here's the top of the list filtered by sales and earnings acceleration.
Trades:
I bet on the wrong horse today when I bought SPRD shares. I was good for the first 45 minutes at least. SPRD ended near the bottom of my watch list. Grrrr.
I bought an August CF spread for cheap. Yeah!
I had an over-the-close limit buy order in for WFR and still missed it. Grrrr.
I make a good call on my SSW calls. Yeah!Reversal alerts: (59) of which (54) were in the database. Here's the top of the list filtered by sales and earnings acceleration.
Friday, March 11, 2011
There's Hope
We had a normal day despite the tsunami in Japan (charities). DNS +60, +15, +9.
Trades:
GTLS gapped down and tripped its trailing stop loss order, +3.9%.
I found some assurance in Cramer's comments so I picked up some MNTA shares and SSW calls. SSW reports Monday.
I also repaired a MNTA trade where earlier I sold calls for a bull call spread conversion, only my cost was the same as the spread. DOAH! There's nothing I like better that locking in a way-ITM spread where I break even and only the broker makes money. Anyway, I covered the short calls so now I'm back in the money.
Reversal alerts: (13), t2:ADI, hlr: ADSK, ATML, CRM, CS, DISCA, DTLK, FCX, FFIV, OIC, MCHP, SMS, STLD. All-in-all, a pretty good bunch. I don't think I ever had a list where I recognized all of the names.
Trades:
GTLS gapped down and tripped its trailing stop loss order, +3.9%.
I found some assurance in Cramer's comments so I picked up some MNTA shares and SSW calls. SSW reports Monday.
I also repaired a MNTA trade where earlier I sold calls for a bull call spread conversion, only my cost was the same as the spread. DOAH! There's nothing I like better that locking in a way-ITM spread where I break even and only the broker makes money. Anyway, I covered the short calls so now I'm back in the money.
 |
| Value-sales portfolio, +41.2% |
Reversal alerts: (13), t2:ADI, hlr: ADSK, ATML, CRM, CS, DISCA, DTLK, FCX, FFIV, OIC, MCHP, SMS, STLD. All-in-all, a pretty good bunch. I don't think I ever had a list where I recognized all of the names.
Growing Pains?
Cramer's Growing Pains? video segment where he suggests selling your weak holdings to raise cash to get back to even, and holding your strongest stocks to catch their rebound.
Thursday, March 10, 2011
BAM!
How'd that hit you? DNS -228, -51, -25. Not good unless you were long GMCR or SMTC.
The morning started off with alert bells as trailing stop loss orders were going off.
Trades:
XLE (-1.16%), ENTR (-20.8% & -12.4%), HAYN (-5.0%), and TTMI (-4.7%) shares were sold.
I wish I could say I didn't see this downturn coming, then I'd have some excuse. I started moving out but didn't stay out and gave back easy money. It's going to be harder getting back where I was.
Reversal alerts: (1), junk.
The morning started off with alert bells as trailing stop loss orders were going off.
Trades:
XLE (-1.16%), ENTR (-20.8% & -12.4%), HAYN (-5.0%), and TTMI (-4.7%) shares were sold.
I wish I could say I didn't see this downturn coming, then I'd have some excuse. I started moving out but didn't stay out and gave back easy money. It's going to be harder getting back where I was.
Reversal alerts: (1), junk.
Wednesday, March 9, 2011
Not Yet
The beatings continue. DNS -1, -14, -2.
Trades:
VSH hit its 7% trailing stop loss, -0.08%.
I sold my shares of TE (+3.0%), XLE (+3.8) and WLL (+4.6%).
I sold my RES April calls, +20.3%.
Reversal alerts: (6) of which DTLK is interesting. It would be more interesting if tech stocks weren't getting slaughtered on a daily basis.
Trades:
VSH hit its 7% trailing stop loss, -0.08%.
I sold my shares of TE (+3.0%), XLE (+3.8) and WLL (+4.6%).
I sold my RES April calls, +20.3%.
Reversal alerts: (6) of which DTLK is interesting. It would be more interesting if tech stocks weren't getting slaughtered on a daily basis.
Selling Oil
I sold RES, TE, WLL, & XLE in anticipation of some resolution to the Libya situation. RES and PTEN are bucking the trend but I think I'll be able to get back in cheaper later so I'll take these profits and avoid the frustration of watching winning positions go negative.
MY beat estimates. So badly in fact that it loses credibility in my book. They could provide better guidance.
FMCN is up nicely.
MY beat estimates. So badly in fact that it loses credibility in my book. They could provide better guidance.
FMCN is up nicely.
Tuesday, March 8, 2011
Fingers Crossed
When everything dropped this morning I was hoping for a hard sell-off - capitulation if you will. But instead we got a fairly decent rally. DNS +124, +20, +12. EGHT, LCC, and RBCN topped my watch list gainers (>10%). We're probably not out of the woods though.
Trades: I sold March TTMI calls to convert calls to a bull call spread.
Reversal alerts: (18) t2: IDCC NAL PRSP & WTR. hlr: IBI IDCC & SEB.
Trades: I sold March TTMI calls to convert calls to a bull call spread.
Reversal alerts: (18) t2: IDCC NAL PRSP & WTR. hlr: IBI IDCC & SEB.
Monday, March 7, 2011
Late for the Door
This market continues to punish anyone trying to ride through it. DNS -80, -39, -11.
Trades:
I sold the losing positions early rather than wait for them to trip their TSLs. JKS and CF hit their 7% trailing stop loss orders somewhat unexpectedly.
Stocks: MY (-5.2%), PWER (-15.8%), JKS (-13.9%) and CF (-3.9%).
Options: MY (-26.9%) and Ford (-53.0%).
I bought SCHN shares.
Reversal alerts: (9), WFC WRI & DRI are a stretch here.
Trades:
I sold the losing positions early rather than wait for them to trip their TSLs. JKS and CF hit their 7% trailing stop loss orders somewhat unexpectedly.
Stocks: MY (-5.2%), PWER (-15.8%), JKS (-13.9%) and CF (-3.9%).
Options: MY (-26.9%) and Ford (-53.0%).
I bought SCHN shares.
Reversal alerts: (9), WFC WRI & DRI are a stretch here.
Friday, March 4, 2011
A String of One Good Day
You'd think we could get a little follow through on yesterday's rally. You'd be wrong ... along with a lot of other people. DNS -88, -14, -10.
Here's something I'd noticed weeks ago and forgot. Reversals from declining stocks and bottom bouncers weren't working; stocks coming out of consolidation bases in confirmed uptrends were working. Playing the bottom works in a strong market - not this one. I apparently put too much faith in the numbers - numbers that may not even be accurate.
There are plenty of stocks in uptrends so I'll favor them. I'll also try to diversify and move away from tech and oil. Not that petro stocks PTEN, RES, XLE & WLL haven't been a blessing.
CF, GTLS & SSW will get some company. MY and PWER are on tight stops and will be gone soon. Ford and JKS will be gone unless they start behaving. The IMAX spread will expire in two weeks.
Trades:
I rolled the short call up on the IMAX spread to buy some discounted intrinsic value.
I sold PWER April calls, -42.11%. I could wait (and hope and pray) on these losing calls, and probably lose even more money. I'd rather just move on to better prospects.
I bought HAYN (f w), MNTA (f w) & RBN (f w) shares and calls.
Reversal alerts: (10), most interesting being NFLX WNR CVGW & LOGM.
Here's something I'd noticed weeks ago and forgot. Reversals from declining stocks and bottom bouncers weren't working; stocks coming out of consolidation bases in confirmed uptrends were working. Playing the bottom works in a strong market - not this one. I apparently put too much faith in the numbers - numbers that may not even be accurate.
There are plenty of stocks in uptrends so I'll favor them. I'll also try to diversify and move away from tech and oil. Not that petro stocks PTEN, RES, XLE & WLL haven't been a blessing.
CF, GTLS & SSW will get some company. MY and PWER are on tight stops and will be gone soon. Ford and JKS will be gone unless they start behaving. The IMAX spread will expire in two weeks.
Trades:
I rolled the short call up on the IMAX spread to buy some discounted intrinsic value.
 |
| Value-sales portfolio, +51.6% |
I bought HAYN (f w), MNTA (f w) & RBN (f w) shares and calls.
Reversal alerts: (10), most interesting being NFLX WNR CVGW & LOGM.
Thursday, March 3, 2011
Great Day, Bad Picks
Today was a great day. It started with a strong open that carried through the day with broad participation. DNS +191, +51, +23.
But the solar stocks did their thing ... sell off while everyone else is soaring. JASO was selling off at a consistent volume and decline, like someone was spooling off a huge position. I bought calls when the selling paused for a bit, but then decided that there was something I was missing. Facing market risk and position risk, I decided to get out of these until their price movement makes sense.
Trades:
I sold DRYS shares and calls when Cramer raised concerns about the debt incurred for the new ships. +3.93% and -0.04% respectively.
I sold JASO calls, -66.2% and +1.92%.
I sold JKS, Mar $27/30 spreads (-81.4%) and Apr $25/29 (-31.95%).
I sold PWER Mar calls, -2.65%.
Of those I still have PWER shares and April calls, and JKS shares, April calls, and June spreads.
Reversal alerts: (46) filtered for earnings growth yields DRIV NICE HBAN DTLK & TEN.
But the solar stocks did their thing ... sell off while everyone else is soaring. JASO was selling off at a consistent volume and decline, like someone was spooling off a huge position. I bought calls when the selling paused for a bit, but then decided that there was something I was missing. Facing market risk and position risk, I decided to get out of these until their price movement makes sense.
Trades:
I sold DRYS shares and calls when Cramer raised concerns about the debt incurred for the new ships. +3.93% and -0.04% respectively.
I sold JASO calls, -66.2% and +1.92%.
I sold JKS, Mar $27/30 spreads (-81.4%) and Apr $25/29 (-31.95%).
I sold PWER Mar calls, -2.65%.
Of those I still have PWER shares and April calls, and JKS shares, April calls, and June spreads.
Reversal alerts: (46) filtered for earnings growth yields DRIV NICE HBAN DTLK & TEN.
Wednesday, March 2, 2011
No Beatings Today
It feels good to get a reprieve from the relentless selling. DNS +9, +11, +2. I'm not taking much comfort in today's action ... way too many stocks pulled back too far from their highs today.
Trades:
RES dropped on the open and hit its trailing stop loss, +0.81, so that's a do-over.
For options, I opted to convert some March calls to call spreads assuming these stocks would tread water until they expire in two weeks. Those were MNTA, RBCN, and VSH.
For beat-up JKS, I covered the March short calls to convert the call spreads to just long calls, +43.8%.
Reversal alerts: (7) unfiltered, t2: FCN & NTAP. hlr: BEAV FFIV NFLX TBBK & UTSI.
Trades:
RES dropped on the open and hit its trailing stop loss, +0.81, so that's a do-over.
For options, I opted to convert some March calls to call spreads assuming these stocks would tread water until they expire in two weeks. Those were MNTA, RBCN, and VSH.
For beat-up JKS, I covered the March short calls to convert the call spreads to just long calls, +43.8%.
Reversal alerts: (7) unfiltered, t2: FCN & NTAP. hlr: BEAV FFIV NFLX TBBK & UTSI.
Tuesday, March 1, 2011
That Stings
Ouch. DNS -168, -45, -21.
Trades:
JKS gapped down so I bought more shares and calls.
PTEN tripped its trailing stop loss order, +28.6%.
I bought calls on DRYS, MNTA, PWER, and RES, and could have paid less for each of them.
Distribution Days:
One of my scripts counts the number of distribution days over the last nine days. There's a big jump in stocks with 5 d-days, and a couple with 6. That's not surprising ... just an indication of a moderate downturn in the market. It could get worse, but if it doesn't, here's a list of stocks only sporting zero or one distribution days ordered by d-days and growth over 4-weeks: RBCN COCO, one d-day: HNR VDSI ACIW SSW DIOD TRLG FIS UDRL TSU SCHN EVOL SMS AUO. These stocks have escaped some of the heavy selling, for whatever reason.
Reversal alerts: (10) of which only COGO and SYKE have any growth.
Trades:
JKS gapped down so I bought more shares and calls.
PTEN tripped its trailing stop loss order, +28.6%.
I bought calls on DRYS, MNTA, PWER, and RES, and could have paid less for each of them.
Distribution Days:
One of my scripts counts the number of distribution days over the last nine days. There's a big jump in stocks with 5 d-days, and a couple with 6. That's not surprising ... just an indication of a moderate downturn in the market. It could get worse, but if it doesn't, here's a list of stocks only sporting zero or one distribution days ordered by d-days and growth over 4-weeks: RBCN COCO, one d-day: HNR VDSI ACIW SSW DIOD TRLG FIS UDRL TSU SCHN EVOL SMS AUO. These stocks have escaped some of the heavy selling, for whatever reason.
Reversal alerts: (10) of which only COGO and SYKE have any growth.
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