Wednesday, February 29, 2012

Perspective

The markets started off great then tanked. Your mood sure hinges on whether you're in a buying mood or fully invested. Most of my options took big hits with the underlying stocks dropping 2.5, 4, 6, and 18% (SPRD). None of those is good where options are concerned. I did cover the short calls on all of my bull call spreads, so if those stocks will just go back up I can enjoy my lemonade.

Stopped Out

These three equities ended lower for the day. RES just barely tripped the trailing stop loss trigger before moving higher, closing out at -1.4%. My LGF position closed out at +11.8%, and the FTK position closed out at +7.0%. While there's no shame in taking a profit, the risk adverse trailing stops will probably cost me money on the last two.

I also bought April call options on speculative medical play ABMD.

SPRD was up 8.3% today, MPEL was up 4.3%. Watchlister GTLS was up 7.1%.

Monday, February 27, 2012

Decent Recovery

The markets dropped then recovered to finish flat. That kicked me out of my KEG shares when the 5% trailing stop loss order tripped (+5.5%). It rebounded to close down only 0.8%. I'll know in a few weeks if that was a good stop. Otherwise, I still have well ITM call options.

FTK had a nice 8% day, LGF started higher, then gave some back. My short positions in MNTA and SIMG improved as they both dropped.

My call spread in SPRD is underwater and it's been going down. I wish I could recommend it here, but I can't do it while it's heading south. Great sales growth, forward P/E around 6, estimates holding steady, and tends to surprise to the upside. Watchlist it.

Take a look at KOG here. Tremendous sales growth, P/E falling from 63 to 23 in the next two quarters.

Thursday, February 23, 2012

The Market is Having a Sale

I'm buying SCCO calls and bull call spreads, and shorting SIMG and MNTA.

I sold some of my PRFT shares. MIC is having a good day so far. LGF has panned out well.

WPRT is down again which hasn't happened lately. Can't touch it until Pres. O. speaks on his energy policy ... or lack thereof.

Update: I forgot WPRT issued a secondary, and that was most likely why the price was down. I bought some April $35 calls and some March $37/$42 bull call spreads. WPRT closed at $43.94 Friday.

Wednesday, February 22, 2012

Added ...

shares in LGF and a March $14/17 bull call spread for SPRD ($16.40).

CF got away from me.

Update: I just added FTK and STLD shares and calls (from reversal alerts).

Saturday, February 18, 2012

Feb Expiration

The Feb bull call spreads have closed out.

BAS +22.56%, GTE +49.68%, KEG +4.08%, MPEL +47.81%.

That leaves the following March calls in place: HMY $11, KEG $12.50, MPEL $10, MYL $20, and WYN $40.

Equity positions: ABT, ARR, KEG, MIC, MPEL, MYL, PRFT, RES, and WYN.

Thursday, February 16, 2012

Monster Day

What a day to be in the market. Pretty much everything I'd care to own went up. I'm sorry I sold anything earlier this week, and glad I bought what I did. How's that for 20/20 hindsight? :-)

My Feb KEG calls were still under water as of yesterday's close. Today I was able to sell calls for a bull call spread conversion that should close out with a very modest profit (green good, red bad).

My fingers are crossed for tomorrow.

If You Sell It ,They Will ...

... go up. At least it seems that way.

I closed out my Feb ABT and RES calls, -11.1% and -38.3% respectively. I had awful judgement on the petro calls this month. Let's sit back and watch RES run like crazy now.

I bought shares in MYL and PRFT, and Mar $20 calls for MYL.

Tuesday, February 14, 2012

Takin' out the Trash and Near Misses

One day earlier on ASGN would have been nice, up 14.5% today. Old fav TAL was up 10%, both on earnings reports.

Yesterday I closed out losing option positions (Feb calls) on ABT, PTEN, and RES (way OTM), -13.0%, -69.7%, and -96%. I still have more Feb calls for ABT, KEG, and RES to close out in another account. I should have put the brakes on PTEN and RES a lot sooner. Instead, I bought more. Don't do what I did. :-(

My MCHX shares drooped into the trailing stop and sold, +10.4%. No more MCHX.

I missed on my MYL buy but did pick up some Mar $11 HMY calls.

Shopping List

I'm looking to buy these picks from a recent screen. HMY is probably the most speculative.


EPS Growth
Prev Yr Past Yr Growth P/E
-0.09 0.08 188.9% -
0.01 -0.02 -300.0% -
0.03 0.16 433.3% -
0.10 0.30 200.0% 24.8
Next Two Quarters (est)
0.08 0.21 160.0% 19.91
-0.02 0.32 1680.0% 13.11

Sales Growth
Prev Yr Last Yr Growth
336.0 422.0 25.6%
404.0 503.0 24.5%
422.0 550.0 30.3%
434.0 595.0 37.1%

Mylan Inc. (MYL)  :: Reporting Feb 21

EPS Growth
Prev Yr Past Yr Growth P/E
0.01 0.01 0.0% -
0.20 0.24 20.0% -
0.17 0.34 100.0% -
0.35 0.37 5.7% 24.5
Next Two Quarters (est)
0.01 0.50 4890.0% 16.07
0.24 0.53 122.5% 13.23

Sales Growth
Prev Yr Last Yr Growth
1351.8 1434.5 6.1%
1292.4 1449.0 12.1%
1368.5 1573.9 15.0%
1355.1 1575.8 16.3%

Perficient Inc. (PRFT) :: Reporting Mar 1

EPS Growth
Prev Yr Past Yr Growth P/E
0.02 0.05 150.0% -
0.03 0.07 133.3% -
0.08 0.10 25.0% -
0.08 0.12 50.0% 37.1
Next Two Quarters (est)
0.05 0.21 326.0% 24.06
0.07 0.19 171.4% 19.04

Sales Growth
Prev Yr Last Yr Growth
47.4 55.9 17.9%
48.9 56.2 14.9%
55.5 65.6 18.2%
54.6 70.2 28.6%

as well as CLMT and ASGN.

Sunday, February 12, 2012

Charts Trump Numbers

Here's my overdue update:

MSCC spiked down and plowed through the stop loss trigger before rebounding and moving higher. I went from a 12% or better gain to close out my shares at +0.3%. Sigh.

I picked up some more shares of ARR when their secondary dropped the price.

This week's downturn took out shares in ROSE (+7.1%), NWPX (+4.9%), and BAS (-0.1%) when the 6% trailing stops triggered.

I closed out some calls in BAS and MPEL for +46.3% and +13.0% respectively.

I converted Feb calls in BAS, GTE, and MPEL to call spreads which should yield around 31%, 56%, and 54% less commissions.

I have KEG Feb $10 calls, and just bought Mar $12.50 calls on the dip.

I decided to trim losers RES and MCHX after doubling down on them and ignoring what are now some pretty obvious indicators, -6.9% and -12.4% respectively. At least the second MCHX buy is up 6.7% after Friday's [dead cat?] bounce.

If you look at RES, PTEN, and MCHX you'll see estimates for strong double digit sales and earnings growth (YoY quarterly) and sequential earnings growth over the MRQ. But it hasn't mattered thus far. Winners keep winning, losers keep losing ... that's what the charts are saying.