I was really hoping for more of a rally this week. Overall it was okay though with a higher high and a higher low. That's bullish in my book. DNS -69, -9, -5.
Trades: none.
Portfolios:
The test portfolios continue to bob around. The ESG port is at -14.61% with 10 of 37 stocks above water. The value-sales port is at -1.12%.
Reversal alerts: none.
Here's hoping for a better year in 2012 because this market has been a beast to trade since April.
Cheers!
Saturday, December 31, 2011
Thursday, December 29, 2011
Getting There
Today's gain got us closer to going positive for the week, but we're not there yet. DNS +136, +24, +13.
Trades: none.
Reversal alerts: (3).
ULTA has some growth and a forward P/E improving from 40 to 35.
Trades: none.
Reversal alerts: (3).
ULTA has some growth and a forward P/E improving from 40 to 35.
A Day Too Early
Hmmm, seems I should have waited a day. DNS -140, -35, -7.
Trades:
The rest of my KOG order filled, then I doubled down.
Then I gambled that MCP was going to bounce so I added on there. That didn't pan out when MCP drifted down more to close down 14.1%, and is down again today.
Reversal alerts: (3).
The only one to even consider here is TGT with modest growth and a 2.3% dividend yield.
Trades:
The rest of my KOG order filled, then I doubled down.
Then I gambled that MCP was going to bounce so I added on there. That didn't pan out when MCP drifted down more to close down 14.1%, and is down again today.
Reversal alerts: (3).
The only one to even consider here is TGT with modest growth and a 2.3% dividend yield.
Tuesday, December 27, 2011
Friday, December 23, 2011
Ho-hum
We managed to hang onto Tuesday's gain and ended up higher for the week. Almost to where we were two weeks ago. DNS +124, +19, +11.
Trades: none.
Portfolios:
Not much difference this week. ESG is at -13.7% with 11 of 37 stocks above water, and the value-sales port is at +0.19%.
Reversal alerts: (9).
First, there are the value traps MY, FLSR, and ASIA. Then more substantial companies SYNA, ARUN, and UA.
Have a Merry Christmas folks!
Trades: none.
Portfolios:
Not much difference this week. ESG is at -13.7% with 11 of 37 stocks above water, and the value-sales port is at +0.19%.
Reversal alerts: (9).
First, there are the value traps MY, FLSR, and ASIA. Then more substantial companies SYNA, ARUN, and UA.
Have a Merry Christmas folks!
Thursday, December 22, 2011
Safe To Dip In?
Another day of nice gains is making it hard to stay away. But it'll be tough to make too much of the market's direction as the volume thins out. DNS +62, +21, +10.
Trades: none.
Reversal alerts: (10).
TIBX looks good with strong double digit YoY quarterly sales (~24%) and earnings (36 - 92%) growth, and the P/E falling from 41 to 29.
CRM's quarterly earnings should jump to a new level for the next two quarters but the P/E will only drop to 315 then 152. The P/E would go to 71 if CRM could sustain those earnings levels for two more quarters. Kind of pricey.
Trades: none.
Reversal alerts: (10).
TIBX looks good with strong double digit YoY quarterly sales (~24%) and earnings (36 - 92%) growth, and the P/E falling from 41 to 29.
CRM's quarterly earnings should jump to a new level for the next two quarters but the P/E will only drop to 315 then 152. The P/E would go to 71 if CRM could sustain those earnings levels for two more quarters. Kind of pricey.
Wednesday, December 21, 2011
Better Late Than Never
Tuesday, December 20, 2011
Take a Pass
It was tough seeing a nice day like today go by with so many of my favorites running well. But I'll venture that buyers will be underwater later this week. DNS +337, +81, +36.
I liked the charts of CF and CMG going into today but not enough to buy them up 3 or 4 percent in this market.
Trades: none.
Reversal alerts: (62).
Filtered down to NFX, XCO, ATAX, MINI, and MDRX.
I liked the charts of CF and CMG going into today but not enough to buy them up 3 or 4 percent in this market.
Trades: none.
Reversal alerts: (62).
Filtered down to NFX, XCO, ATAX, MINI, and MDRX.
Monday, December 19, 2011
We Used to Trade Stocks
... back in the day that is. Now we just hope a few dividend paying stocks will hold up and watch our 401(k) plans drop even lower with every government move to bolster the economy (or is it to bolster their votes come next November?). DNS -100, -32, -14.
Trades:
There go the market indexes again so there's not much use in holding my called FMCN and SPRD shares. Plus both of these have been hit pretty hard so there's a head wind of tax loss selling. No sense fighting to get back where I'm at now.
FMCN, +29.8%.
SPRD, -84.7%, which almost feels like a win considering where it's at. There's 15.3% worth of icing on what was going to be a big fat doughnut had my calls expired worthless. Fortunately this was a small position, but it sucked up most of the profit from the other two.
I put a contingency order on my XLF puts and it triggered. That's +19.9% profit sniped. Moving on.
That leaves me with only ARR in my trading accounts, and even that is starting to flirt with the stop loss trigger.
Reversal alerts: (37).
Filtered for EPS growth and combined sales and earnings acceleration, lowest forward P/E first: OC, TEN, SPN, EXXI, MCP, BGCP, GPRO, and MLNX.
Trades:
There go the market indexes again so there's not much use in holding my called FMCN and SPRD shares. Plus both of these have been hit pretty hard so there's a head wind of tax loss selling. No sense fighting to get back where I'm at now.
FMCN, +29.8%.
SPRD, -84.7%, which almost feels like a win considering where it's at. There's 15.3% worth of icing on what was going to be a big fat doughnut had my calls expired worthless. Fortunately this was a small position, but it sucked up most of the profit from the other two.
I put a contingency order on my XLF puts and it triggered. That's +19.9% profit sniped. Moving on.
That leaves me with only ARR in my trading accounts, and even that is starting to flirt with the stop loss trigger.
Reversal alerts: (37).
Filtered for EPS growth and combined sales and earnings acceleration, lowest forward P/E first: OC, TEN, SPN, EXXI, MCP, BGCP, GPRO, and MLNX.
Friday, December 16, 2011
More Down
That seems to be what we have to look forward to for at least a little while longer as we close out another down week. DNS -2, +14, +4.
The oil group did well today with 13 gainers out of 14 in my watchlist.
Trades:
Both of my call spreads closed with just the long calls ITM, so I'll have some big positions to close out next week. FMCN couldn't hold above $20 (the short strike) and SPRD nudged above $20 (the long strike). I gambled that SPRD's volatility would kick in and mitigate my losses, but that didn't happen (yet). Maybe they'll gap up Monday morning. It could happen. Really.
Portfolios:
The ESV port is at -17.9% with (10) stocks above water, the value-sales port is at -3.96%.
Reversal alerts: (35).
Filtered, by lowest forward P/E first: CAM, SQM, EL, and AMZN.
The oil group did well today with 13 gainers out of 14 in my watchlist.
Trades:
Both of my call spreads closed with just the long calls ITM, so I'll have some big positions to close out next week. FMCN couldn't hold above $20 (the short strike) and SPRD nudged above $20 (the long strike). I gambled that SPRD's volatility would kick in and mitigate my losses, but that didn't happen (yet). Maybe they'll gap up Monday morning. It could happen. Really.
Portfolios:
The ESV port is at -17.9% with (10) stocks above water, the value-sales port is at -3.96%.
Reversal alerts: (35).
Filtered, by lowest forward P/E first: CAM, SQM, EL, and AMZN.
Thursday, December 15, 2011
Medic!
My call spreads need help tomorrow! DNS +45, +2, +4.
Two stocks showing consistent price gains are NCTY and SWS. UEPS and LLY have been moving up lately.
Trades: none.
Reversal alerts:
Of the five stocks alerting in the T2 script, ATAX and LIWA are interesting.
ATAX has YoY quarterly sales gains of about 20%, and is expected to ramp up earnings over the next two quarters dropping the P/E from 56 to 16.9. The chart stinks though.
LIWA is showing strong sales and earnings growth with current and forward P/Es below 3.3. I'd say someone is skeptical of their numbers.
The HLR script alerted on thirty-eight stocks. Filtered for good earnings growth yields WNS, BIRT, and RTI. These stocks aren't exactly making the new highs list.
Two stocks showing consistent price gains are NCTY and SWS. UEPS and LLY have been moving up lately.
Trades: none.
Reversal alerts:
Of the five stocks alerting in the T2 script, ATAX and LIWA are interesting.
ATAX has YoY quarterly sales gains of about 20%, and is expected to ramp up earnings over the next two quarters dropping the P/E from 56 to 16.9. The chart stinks though.
LIWA is showing strong sales and earnings growth with current and forward P/Es below 3.3. I'd say someone is skeptical of their numbers.
The HLR script alerted on thirty-eight stocks. Filtered for good earnings growth yields WNS, BIRT, and RTI. These stocks aren't exactly making the new highs list.
Wednesday, December 14, 2011
At Least ...
Tuesday, December 13, 2011
Ouch
A number of leading stocks took a big hit today. DNS -66, -33, -11.
SSW gained 16.4% today after gapping up much higher at the open.
Trades:
CLMT hit the stop loss trigger, -4.6%.
Reversal alerts: (1).
MNTA, but it has been on my radar as a stock to short as it appears to be facing a patent cliff and increasing competition.
SSW gained 16.4% today after gapping up much higher at the open.
Trades:
CLMT hit the stop loss trigger, -4.6%.
Reversal alerts: (1).
MNTA, but it has been on my radar as a stock to short as it appears to be facing a patent cliff and increasing competition.
Momenta Pharmaceuticals Inc. (MNTA)
| EPS Growth | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Prev Yr | Past Yr | Growth | P/E |
| -0.34 | 0.79 | 332.4% | - |
| -0.37 | 1.15 | 410.8% | - |
| -0.34 | 1.29 | 479.4% | - |
| 0.72 | 1.21 | 68.1% | 3.6 |
| Next Two Quarters (est) | |||
| 0.79 | 0.23 | -71.5% | 4.08 |
| 1.15 | 0.43 | -62.6% | 5.01 |
Monday, December 12, 2011
If You Can't Say Something Nice ...
then I shouldn't say anything at all about this market. Well, everything is getting cheaper so I guess that's good. And the markets closed higher than they were most of the day. DNS -163, -35, -19.
I thought NFLX was sporting a bullish pattern on Friday. It prevailed today with a 6.2% gain despite the markets' decline, coming in just behind UTSI in the watchlist.
Trades: none.
Remaining Positions:
Equities: ARR is holding up. CLMT is just above the trailing stop ... for now.
Bull call spreads: FMCN is well in the money (above the short call) but only 7% away from costing me money ... that's not far enough when it's moving 5% every day. SPRD is showing a loss for now. Both expire Friday.
Puts: My short position in XLF (Financial ETF) is doing fine.
By next Monday I expect to have only two positions, both profitable. One long with an 18.6% annual yield, paid monthly, and one short.
Reversal alerts: (3).
MEDW and ESEA pass through the penny stock filter.
I thought NFLX was sporting a bullish pattern on Friday. It prevailed today with a 6.2% gain despite the markets' decline, coming in just behind UTSI in the watchlist.
Trades: none.
Remaining Positions:
Equities: ARR is holding up. CLMT is just above the trailing stop ... for now.
Bull call spreads: FMCN is well in the money (above the short call) but only 7% away from costing me money ... that's not far enough when it's moving 5% every day. SPRD is showing a loss for now. Both expire Friday.
Puts: My short position in XLF (Financial ETF) is doing fine.
By next Monday I expect to have only two positions, both profitable. One long with an 18.6% annual yield, paid monthly, and one short.
Reversal alerts: (3).
MEDW and ESEA pass through the penny stock filter.
Friday, December 9, 2011
Got Whiplash?
I don't recall a market this hard to trade since the dot com bubble started to burst. DNS +187, +50, +21.
SIGA has a nice 32% gain today. CWEI rebounded with a 9.8% gain.
Trades: none.
Portfolios:
The ESG portfolio is at -11.0% with 13 of 37 stocks above water now. The value-sales port dropped to +3.3%.
Reversal alerts: (3), junk.
SIGA has a nice 32% gain today. CWEI rebounded with a 9.8% gain.
Trades: none.
Portfolios:
The ESG portfolio is at -11.0% with 13 of 37 stocks above water now. The value-sales port dropped to +3.3%.
Reversal alerts: (3), junk.
Thursday, December 8, 2011
As Expected
Wednesday, December 7, 2011
Rebound to Even
The markets opened down and clawed their way back to even. DNS +46, 0, +3.
I took my cue from the European markets as they were diving and continued to liquidate positions. All equity positions are protected by trailing stop loss orders. That leaves two bull call spreads (long) and put options (short) on the XLF Financial ETF.
Trades:
I sold my CVI calls, +7.33%.
All this trading while in capital preservation mode is a losing proposition. I need more and bigger winners to make up for the trades that go bad (e.g., GMCR, FMCN, SPRD), and I'm not getting them in this environment. So I'll wait for the market or at least oil prices to reset.
Reversal alerts:(2), junk.
I took my cue from the European markets as they were diving and continued to liquidate positions. All equity positions are protected by trailing stop loss orders. That leaves two bull call spreads (long) and put options (short) on the XLF Financial ETF.
Trades:
I sold my CVI calls, +7.33%.
All this trading while in capital preservation mode is a losing proposition. I need more and bigger winners to make up for the trades that go bad (e.g., GMCR, FMCN, SPRD), and I'm not getting them in this environment. So I'll wait for the market or at least oil prices to reset.
Reversal alerts:(2), junk.
Tuesday, December 6, 2011
Close 'em Out
It's quite a mixed bag of gainers and losers today. DNS +52, -6, +1.
FRO closed up 18.6% after being considerably higher. HL closed up 9.2%.
SPRD got clobbered again for another 9.9%, and that's after it recovered some. I was sitting on a 51.5% gain (less comms) two days ago, now I'm down about 40%. SPRD is pretty volatile so a few good days could get me back ITM.
I felt like most everyone has been ignoring the elephant in the room that is Europe. Something is going to hit the fan again soon and I wanted to be in cash or short.
Trades:
I chose to close out my MCHX call options with an execute and sell order, +5.20%.
I sold my $20/$22.50 FMCN call spread while there was some value there (FMCM closed at $20.34), -25.2%. It might have recovered by the 16th, but not if the tide goes out. I'd rather have 75% of my money than none of it.
I went short with XLF (Financial Sector ETF) puts.
Reversal alerts: (3).
MEDW, PRFT, and GR. Pass.
FRO closed up 18.6% after being considerably higher. HL closed up 9.2%.
SPRD got clobbered again for another 9.9%, and that's after it recovered some. I was sitting on a 51.5% gain (less comms) two days ago, now I'm down about 40%. SPRD is pretty volatile so a few good days could get me back ITM.
I felt like most everyone has been ignoring the elephant in the room that is Europe. Something is going to hit the fan again soon and I wanted to be in cash or short.
Trades:
I chose to close out my MCHX call options with an execute and sell order, +5.20%.
I sold my $20/$22.50 FMCN call spread while there was some value there (FMCM closed at $20.34), -25.2%. It might have recovered by the 16th, but not if the tide goes out. I'd rather have 75% of my money than none of it.
I went short with XLF (Financial Sector ETF) puts.
Reversal alerts: (3).
MEDW, PRFT, and GR. Pass.
Monday, December 5, 2011
Give Back Half
It was a nice start. Too bad the markets couldn't hold their ground. DNS +78, +29, +13.
FRO had a 16% gain today. SPRD gave back 8.6%.
Trades:
PTEN ran up then drifted into its 5% trailing stop. It needed either more wiggle room or less, -2.2%.
I should have stuck with GMCR.
Reversal alerts: (11).
GEOY, PRSC, CSTR, and NFLX.
FRO had a 16% gain today. SPRD gave back 8.6%.
Trades:
PTEN ran up then drifted into its 5% trailing stop. It needed either more wiggle room or less, -2.2%.
I should have stuck with GMCR.
Reversal alerts: (11).
GEOY, PRSC, CSTR, and NFLX.
Friday, December 2, 2011
Two Steps Back, One Big Step Forward
This week didn't make up the losses from the two previous weeks, but it came close. DNS -1, +1, 0.
Watchlisters with a 20% or more gain for the week are NCTY (57.7%), CWEI (35.3%), ANR, AMED, CMC, MCHX, SWS, VIT, MCP, LCC, and SPN (20.2%).
Trades: none.
Portfolios:
The ESG portfolio is at -12.6% with 11 of 37 positions above water. The value-sales port is at +4.5%. The oil portfolio is at +5.85% with 8 of 11 positions above water (all but one were negative before). KOG, CWEI, and ROSE have double digit gains since Nov 3.
Reversal alerts: (13).
KITD, HXM, VCI, INTX, FLY, ZION, and SNCR sort of look okay. Maybe. Or not.
Watchlisters with a 20% or more gain for the week are NCTY (57.7%), CWEI (35.3%), ANR, AMED, CMC, MCHX, SWS, VIT, MCP, LCC, and SPN (20.2%).
Trades: none.
Portfolios:
The ESG portfolio is at -12.6% with 11 of 37 positions above water. The value-sales port is at +4.5%. The oil portfolio is at +5.85% with 8 of 11 positions above water (all but one were negative before). KOG, CWEI, and ROSE have double digit gains since Nov 3.
Reversal alerts: (13).
KITD, HXM, VCI, INTX, FLY, ZION, and SNCR sort of look okay. Maybe. Or not.
Thursday, December 1, 2011
I'll Take It
Today was good for a few good trades. DNS -26, +6, -2.
Shippers FREE and DRYS were up 11% and change. LULU recovered two thirds of its early morning loss.
Trades:
I was happy to sell when GCMRrrr's little rally faded and hit the 2% trailing stop loss order. It was nice to recover some value after it got clobbered but I have no intention of waiting around hoping to get back to even, -25.0%. Grrr.
SPRD bounced enough to hit a limit sell order for a bull call spread conversion. If it can hold $25 in 11 trading days it'll gross 61%.
My FMCN calls moved into the money today.
Reversal alerts: (32) with (24) coming from the more reliable t2 script.
Filtered: PTEN, DMND, BRCM, NGS, INFA, and RTI. PTEN and RTI have the best EPS growth estimates.
Shippers FREE and DRYS were up 11% and change. LULU recovered two thirds of its early morning loss.
Trades:
I was happy to sell when GCMRrrr's little rally faded and hit the 2% trailing stop loss order. It was nice to recover some value after it got clobbered but I have no intention of waiting around hoping to get back to even, -25.0%. Grrr.
SPRD bounced enough to hit a limit sell order for a bull call spread conversion. If it can hold $25 in 11 trading days it'll gross 61%.
My FMCN calls moved into the money today.
Reversal alerts: (32) with (24) coming from the more reliable t2 script.
Filtered: PTEN, DMND, BRCM, NGS, INFA, and RTI. PTEN and RTI have the best EPS growth estimates.
Wednesday, November 30, 2011
Tuesday, November 29, 2011
Monday, November 28, 2011
Black Friday Wins the Day
DNS +291, +86, +34. Let's see if we can rally two days in a row or if we get more Woe is Europe news in the morning.
CMC was up 23.8%. FREE dropped 12.8%.
It's frustrating to see Friday's sale of MCHX followed by a 14.3% rally, and the only two red stocks in my brokerage watch list are two of my four options.
Trades: none.
Reversal alerts: (322) from the HLR script and (37) from the T2 script combined to yield (352) alerts.
Filtered for earnings and sales growth, lowest forward P/E first: TSYS, PGI, PRFT, MIC, BBNK, TMH, LSI, MINI, CDNS, MDRX, and SNCR.
CMC was up 23.8%. FREE dropped 12.8%.
It's frustrating to see Friday's sale of MCHX followed by a 14.3% rally, and the only two red stocks in my brokerage watch list are two of my four options.
Trades: none.
Reversal alerts: (322) from the HLR script and (37) from the T2 script combined to yield (352) alerts.
Filtered for earnings and sales growth, lowest forward P/E first: TSYS, PGI, PRFT, MIC, BBNK, TMH, LSI, MINI, CDNS, MDRX, and SNCR.
Sunday, November 27, 2011
Nothing Is Working
I've been reviewing the charts of stocks with recent reversal alerts. None of them has sustained a breakout to the upside.
And nothing I follow is moving up either. The only watchlist stocks that are holding their own (more or less) are ARR (REIT), ATLS, KOG (oil), MNTA (pharma), and VRTS (investment).
So many stocks look under-priced or have formed bases that look prime for a move up. Just like they did in 2001 when so many of us got whipsawed as stocks stair-stepped down ... then down more ... then down more ... ad nauseum.
I'll continue liquidating stock holdings to cash as the trailing stop orders fire off. When the inevitable bounce comes I'll try to recoup some cash via call options while it lasts, then I'll go short unless the situation changes in Europe. I'm not at all sure that it's too late to go short now.
And nothing I follow is moving up either. The only watchlist stocks that are holding their own (more or less) are ARR (REIT), ATLS, KOG (oil), MNTA (pharma), and VRTS (investment).
So many stocks look under-priced or have formed bases that look prime for a move up. Just like they did in 2001 when so many of us got whipsawed as stocks stair-stepped down ... then down more ... then down more ... ad nauseum.
I'll continue liquidating stock holdings to cash as the trailing stop orders fire off. When the inevitable bounce comes I'll try to recoup some cash via call options while it lasts, then I'll go short unless the situation changes in Europe. I'm not at all sure that it's too late to go short now.
Friday, November 25, 2011
Second Rough Week
Buy and Holders are getting punished. That makes two pretty bad weeks, and we're still not done with Europe. DNS -26, -19, -3.
FREE and SPRD were up 6.8% or better.
Trades:
I didn't want to sell CF, feeling that I got it at a good price. But it hit the stop loss, so it's gone, -7.2%.
MCHX couldn't muster a rebound and hit its stop. Gone, -18.9%.
SUMR just keeps sliding downward, -8.6%.
Portfolios:
The tracking portfolios got clobbered too. ESG is at -21.8%, value-sales at -6.3%.
Reversal alerts: (8).
Filtered down to MY, DMND, DLLR, and GRMN.
FREE and SPRD were up 6.8% or better.
Trades:
I didn't want to sell CF, feeling that I got it at a good price. But it hit the stop loss, so it's gone, -7.2%.
MCHX couldn't muster a rebound and hit its stop. Gone, -18.9%.
SUMR just keeps sliding downward, -8.6%.
Portfolios:
The tracking portfolios got clobbered too. ESG is at -21.8%, value-sales at -6.3%.
Reversal alerts: (8).
Filtered down to MY, DMND, DLLR, and GRMN.
Wednesday, November 23, 2011
A Good Day To Be In Cash
I'm not, but I wish I was (in cash). DNS -236, -61, -26.
Speculative solar stocks YGE and JKS topped the watchlist with 9.7% gains or better. Three oil stocks were in the bottom four, KEG, BAS, and CWEI.
I don't see this European mess going away soon so I went defensive with trailing stops on everything. Tight on the stocks that just keep drifting lower, and loose stops for stocks that looked like they were coming out of a bottom. Better late than never I guess.
Trades:
ENV hit the 5% trailing stop loss order, -11.3%.
KEG hit its 7% TSL order, -3.3%.
Reversal alerts: (5).
Three had good patterns. My pick is
followed by
and finally JKS, but only as a play on the chart.
Speculative solar stocks YGE and JKS topped the watchlist with 9.7% gains or better. Three oil stocks were in the bottom four, KEG, BAS, and CWEI.
I don't see this European mess going away soon so I went defensive with trailing stops on everything. Tight on the stocks that just keep drifting lower, and loose stops for stocks that looked like they were coming out of a bottom. Better late than never I guess.
Trades:
ENV hit the 5% trailing stop loss order, -11.3%.
KEG hit its 7% TSL order, -3.3%.
Reversal alerts: (5).
Three had good patterns. My pick is
| EPS Growth | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Prev Yr | Past Yr | Growth | P/E |
| 0.48 | 2.31 | 381.3% | - |
| 0.49 | 0.75 | 53.1% | - |
| 0.54 | 0.70 | 29.6% | - |
| 0.53 | 0.72 | 35.8% | 6.3 |
| Next Two Quarters (est) | |||
| 2.31 | 0.79 | -66.0% | 6.18 |
| 0.75 | 0.77 | 2.7% | 6.14 |
| Sales Growth | ||
|---|---|---|
| Prev Yr | Last Yr | Growth |
| 789.7 | 3440.1 | 335.6% |
| 762.5 | 969.4 | 27.1% |
| 813.8 | 1052.5 | 29.3% |
| 884.0 | 1119.4 | 26.6% |
followed by
Express Scripts Inc. (ESRX)
| EPS Growth | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Prev Yr | Past Yr | Growth | P/E |
| 0.41 | 0.62 | 51.2% | - |
| 0.47 | 0.62 | 31.9% | - |
| 0.56 | 0.66 | 17.9% | - |
| 0.58 | 0.67 | 15.5% | 17.2 |
| Next Two Quarters (est) | |||
| 0.62 | 0.85 | 37.6% | 15.80 |
| 0.62 | 0.81 | 30.8% | 14.74 |
| Sales Growth | ||
|---|---|---|
| Prev Yr | Last Yr | Growth |
| 8197.0 | 11294.2 | 37.8% |
| 11138.4 | 11094.5 | -0.4% |
| 11288.8 | 11361.4 | 0.6% |
| 11251.8 | 11571.0 | 2.8% |
and finally JKS, but only as a play on the chart.
Tuesday, November 22, 2011
Too Early
There's a definite bias to the downside here. DNS -54, -2, -5.
FMCN came back 14.7% but still has a long way to go. FRO got clobbered for 41.0%. In fact, the shippers had a prominent position at the bottom of the watchlist today: FRO, TNP, FREE, liwa, and EXM.
Trades: See previous post.
Reversal alerts: (97).
Filtered for growth, lowest forward P/E first: RSO, TEN, MCP, EFII, SMBL, and MDRX.
FMCN came back 14.7% but still has a long way to go. FRO got clobbered for 41.0%. In fact, the shippers had a prominent position at the bottom of the watchlist today: FRO, TNP, FREE, liwa, and EXM.
Trades: See previous post.
Reversal alerts: (97).
Filtered for growth, lowest forward P/E first: RSO, TEN, MCP, EFII, SMBL, and MDRX.
Monday, November 21, 2011
Dag!
DNS -249, -49, -23.
I never would have expected that GMCRrrr would have been second best in the watchlist with a 4.9% gain for the day, between NVDA (+5.0%) and KOG (3.4%). KOG is up 12.7% since 11/3 while most of the other oil stocks in that oil test portfolio have gone negative for the same holding period.
The wheels fell off the bus that is FMCN, down 39.5%. SPRD took a 13.1% hit. Last week's breakout stock VIT gave back 18.4%.
Trades:
With all the volatility in FMCN, I bought a December bull call spread for what was a good price for a $15/$20 with the stock trading at $21.xx. Unfortunately what I bought was a $20/$25. So I sold it 3 1/2 minutes later for a +14.0% gain. Whew!
Then I put it a limit order for the $15/$20. It filled at 12:35 and the stock moved back up. Then at 1 pm someone (or their broker) spooled off a large position until 1:30 or so dropping the price from $19.95 to $8.79. It recovered somewhat. Hopefully we'll get more back tomorrow.
:: Update ::
Reuters is reporting that allegations of the company overstating the number of displays in its advertising network (among other charges) in a short seller's report are to be refuted by the company in a statement tomorrow. The allegation were stated as being "completely untrue" and the company suggested that such behavior "should be legally punished". :: ::
I bought KEG shares which are ITM.
Reversal alerts: (2).
HFC and NFLX.
I never would have expected that GMCRrrr would have been second best in the watchlist with a 4.9% gain for the day, between NVDA (+5.0%) and KOG (3.4%). KOG is up 12.7% since 11/3 while most of the other oil stocks in that oil test portfolio have gone negative for the same holding period.
The wheels fell off the bus that is FMCN, down 39.5%. SPRD took a 13.1% hit. Last week's breakout stock VIT gave back 18.4%.
Trades:
With all the volatility in FMCN, I bought a December bull call spread for what was a good price for a $15/$20 with the stock trading at $21.xx. Unfortunately what I bought was a $20/$25. So I sold it 3 1/2 minutes later for a +14.0% gain. Whew!
Then I put it a limit order for the $15/$20. It filled at 12:35 and the stock moved back up. Then at 1 pm someone (or their broker) spooled off a large position until 1:30 or so dropping the price from $19.95 to $8.79. It recovered somewhat. Hopefully we'll get more back tomorrow.
:: Update ::
Reuters is reporting that allegations of the company overstating the number of displays in its advertising network (among other charges) in a short seller's report are to be refuted by the company in a statement tomorrow. The allegation were stated as being "completely untrue" and the company suggested that such behavior "should be legally punished". :: ::
I bought KEG shares which are ITM.
Reversal alerts: (2).
HFC and NFLX.
Friday, November 18, 2011
Rotten Week
We'd have been better off sleeping on our money this week. DNS +25, -15, 0.
Today's action was a tug of war with a slight bias to the downside.
Trades: none.
Portfolios:
They took a beating this week. The ESG port is at -15.0, the value-sales port is at +1.0%.
Reversal alerts: (27).
Filtered for earnings growth, lowest forward P/E first: KNOL, IFSIA, LSI, ACTG, and MCHX.
Today's action was a tug of war with a slight bias to the downside.
Trades: none.
Portfolios:
They took a beating this week. The ESG port is at -15.0, the value-sales port is at +1.0%.
Reversal alerts: (27).
Filtered for earnings growth, lowest forward P/E first: KNOL, IFSIA, LSI, ACTG, and MCHX.
Thursday, November 17, 2011
Firecrackers
That describes how my trailing stop loss orders were firing off. DNS -135, -52, -21.
LIWA was up 10.3% today, VIT had another good day with a 4.1% gain. The oil stocks gave some back.
Trades:
TSL sales: BAS +11.3%, CWEI +7.4%, KEG +5.5% & +10.8%, RES +13.6% & +1.4%.
I had lowball orders in for CF shares and CVI call options - both filled and could have been bought for less (but not by much ;-)
I tried to buy LIWA but it got away from me.
Reversal alerts: (3), junk.
LIWA was up 10.3% today, VIT had another good day with a 4.1% gain. The oil stocks gave some back.
Trades:
TSL sales: BAS +11.3%, CWEI +7.4%, KEG +5.5% & +10.8%, RES +13.6% & +1.4%.
I had lowball orders in for CF shares and CVI call options - both filled and could have been bought for less (but not by much ;-)
I tried to buy LIWA but it got away from me.
Reversal alerts: (3), junk.
Wednesday, November 16, 2011
Jumped the Gun
We were doing well until the bottom fell out. DNS -191, -47, -21.
Watchlisters up 7% or more for the day are TSRA, GMCRrrr, and VIT.
Trades:
I tried to catch the falling knife that was CVI. I bought shares and call options which were good 'til the last hour.
I sold my November $55/$60 GMCRrrr call spread that expires Friday. GMCRrrr ran up 9.85% to close at $52.30. I sold too early, but to be honest, the fact that I was able to recovery any meaningful amount for my way OTM spread was a win, and my time value was rapidly decaying, -87.9%.
Reversal alerts: (5).
CEP, DMND, and CBD might be worth a look.
Watchlisters up 7% or more for the day are TSRA, GMCRrrr, and VIT.
Trades:
I tried to catch the falling knife that was CVI. I bought shares and call options which were good 'til the last hour.
I sold my November $55/$60 GMCRrrr call spread that expires Friday. GMCRrrr ran up 9.85% to close at $52.30. I sold too early, but to be honest, the fact that I was able to recovery any meaningful amount for my way OTM spread was a win, and my time value was rapidly decaying, -87.9%.
Reversal alerts: (5).
CEP, DMND, and CBD might be worth a look.
Tuesday, November 15, 2011
Monday, November 14, 2011
Dabbling
DNS -75, -22, -12.
Trades:
I went with a few diversified trades today, a mix of stocks based on either fundamentals or charts. I bought shares in CLMT, ENV, MCHX, MMSI, and SUMR. I bought call options for MCHX. I bought KEG shares for an untracked account.
CLMT was my favorite pick here. ENV has good fundamentals and a good trend-line off of the bottom. SUMR has solid numbers and what could have been a bottom. MCHX was my pick to break out of its bottom. It broke, but not out, -9.9%.
Reversal alerts: (12).
After many months I'm starting to see more classic reversal patterns as stocks move between overbought and oversold levels. From the reversal candidates there's an occasional gem that offers the additional appeal of stellar growth prospects. But even without that, the rest can offer a good short term trading opportunity given a positive sentiment for the stock and a cooperative market.
That said, while I don't see any gems below, your [research | analysis | hunch | eight-ball | lucky rabbit's foot] may lead you to venture into one or more of the following. The decrease in selling pressure that the chart scans detect help nudge the odds in your favor, IMHO.
ALKS is at a relative bottom, has double-digit sales growth, but is expected to continue to lose money into next year.
VNR has recent sales and earnings growth, shedding losses and dropping the P/E from 11.3 to 5.9.
STRT and BRLI have modest sales and earning growth with a forward P/E of 10.0 and 10.2 respectively.
HLF has double digit sales growth. Forward earnings are slowing a bit, forward P/E is 17.5.
DRIV is moving back to a higher level of earnings, recent sales growth is in the teens, forward P/E is 20.7.
PWR is moving to a higher level of earnings with modest sales growth, forward P/E is 21.0.
MRGE is estimated to move back to profitability, dropping the P/E from 538 to 97.8.
Oh yeah, there's CROX too, but a data error keeps it out of my database, so no P/E or growth numbers.
Trades:
I went with a few diversified trades today, a mix of stocks based on either fundamentals or charts. I bought shares in CLMT, ENV, MCHX, MMSI, and SUMR. I bought call options for MCHX. I bought KEG shares for an untracked account.
CLMT was my favorite pick here. ENV has good fundamentals and a good trend-line off of the bottom. SUMR has solid numbers and what could have been a bottom. MCHX was my pick to break out of its bottom. It broke, but not out, -9.9%.
Reversal alerts: (12).
After many months I'm starting to see more classic reversal patterns as stocks move between overbought and oversold levels. From the reversal candidates there's an occasional gem that offers the additional appeal of stellar growth prospects. But even without that, the rest can offer a good short term trading opportunity given a positive sentiment for the stock and a cooperative market.
That said, while I don't see any gems below, your [research | analysis | hunch | eight-ball | lucky rabbit's foot] may lead you to venture into one or more of the following. The decrease in selling pressure that the chart scans detect help nudge the odds in your favor, IMHO.
ALKS is at a relative bottom, has double-digit sales growth, but is expected to continue to lose money into next year.
VNR has recent sales and earnings growth, shedding losses and dropping the P/E from 11.3 to 5.9.
STRT and BRLI have modest sales and earning growth with a forward P/E of 10.0 and 10.2 respectively.
HLF has double digit sales growth. Forward earnings are slowing a bit, forward P/E is 17.5.
DRIV is moving back to a higher level of earnings, recent sales growth is in the teens, forward P/E is 20.7.
PWR is moving to a higher level of earnings with modest sales growth, forward P/E is 21.0.
MRGE is estimated to move back to profitability, dropping the P/E from 538 to 97.8.
Oh yeah, there's CROX too, but a data error keeps it out of my database, so no P/E or growth numbers.
Sunday, November 13, 2011
10 to Watch
Here are 10 picks from today's growth screen.
| EPS Growth | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Prev Yr | Past Yr | Growth | P/E |
| 0.24 | 0.26 | 8.3% | - |
| -0.36 | 0.11 | 130.6% | - |
| -0.03 | -0.19 | -533.3% | - |
| 0.59 | 0.46 | -22.0% | 30.4 |
| Next Two Quarters (est) | |||
| 0.26 | 0.67 | 157.7% | 18.54 |
| 0.11 | 0.40 | 263.6% | 14.53 |
| Sales Growth | ||
|---|---|---|
| Prev Yr | Last Yr | Growth |
| 495.9 | 596.2 | 20.2% |
| 484.6 | 605.2 | 24.9% |
| 514.7 | 733.8 | 42.6% |
| 595.3 | 777.8 | 30.7% |
Summer Infant Inc. (SUMR)
| EPS Growth | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Prev Yr | Past Yr | Growth | P/E |
| 0.11 | 0.03 | -72.7% | - |
| 0.11 | 0.07 | -36.4% | - |
| 0.14 | 0.05 | -64.3% | - |
| 0.13 | 0.12 | -7.7% | 26.7 |
| Next Two Quarters (est) | |||
| 0.03 | 0.18 | 510.0% | 17.43 |
| 0.07 | 0.15 | 111.4% | 14.66 |
| Sales Growth | ||
|---|---|---|
| Prev Yr | Last Yr | Growth |
| 39.3 | 51.1 | 30.0% |
| 44.1 | 58.5 | 32.7% |
| 49.5 | 61.0 | 23.2% |
| 49.8 | 63.3 | 27.1% |
| EPS Growth | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Prev Yr | Past Yr | Growth | P/E |
| -0.44 | 0.09 | 120.5% | - |
| -0.10 | 0.24 | 340.0% | - |
| 0.01 | -0.05 | -600.0% | - |
| 0.20 | 0.14 | -30.0% | 65.1 |
| Next Two Quarters (est) | |||
| 0.09 | 0.77 | 750.0% | 24.97 |
| 0.24 | 0.81 | 237.5% | 16.42 |
| Sales Growth | ||
|---|---|---|
| Prev Yr | Last Yr | Growth |
| 193.6 | 221.5 | 14.4% |
| 201.3 | 239.9 | 19.2% |
| 204.7 | 247.2 | 20.8% |
| 213.3 | 251.6 | 18.0% |
| EPS Growth | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Prev Yr | Past Yr | Growth | P/E |
| 0.06 | -0.20 | -433.3% | - |
| 0.11 | 0.01 | -90.9% | - |
| -0.05 | 0.20 | 500.0% | - |
| -0.15 | 0.04 | 126.7% | 300.0 |
| Next Two Quarters (est) | |||
| -0.20 | 0.16 | 182.0% | 29.70 |
| 0.01 | 0.19 | 1840.0% | 20.41 |
| Sales Growth | ||
|---|---|---|
| Prev Yr | Last Yr | Growth |
| 24.3 | 28.5 | 17.3% |
| 18.3 | 35.4 | 93.4% |
| 19.7 | 36.4 | 84.8% |
| 20.1 | 38.8 | 93.0% |
Genesis Energy L.P. (GEL)
| EPS Growth | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Prev Yr | Past Yr | Growth | P/E |
| 0.08 | 0.02 | -75.0% | - |
| 0.06 | 0.11 | 83.3% | - |
| 0.29 | 0.27 | -6.9% | - |
| 0.12 | 0.27 | 125.0% | 39.4 |
| Next Two Quarters (est) | |||
| 0.02 | 0.29 | 1350.0% | 28.09 |
| 0.11 | 0.32 | 189.1% | 23.00 |
| Sales Growth | ||
|---|---|---|
| Prev Yr | Last Yr | Growth |
| 436.3 | 602.2 | 38.0% |
| 466.5 | 689.8 | 47.9% |
| 456.5 | 762.8 | 67.1% |
| 576.0 | 830.2 | 44.1% |
Cadence Design Systems Inc. (CDNS)
| EPS Growth | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Prev Yr | Past Yr | Growth | P/E |
| 0.01 | -0.14 | - | - |
| -0.04 | 0.02 | 150.0% | - |
| 0.19 | 0.10 | -47.4% | - |
| 0.49 | 0.11 | -77.6% | 143.6 |
| Next Two Quarters (est) | |||
| -0.14 | 0.15 | 209.3% | 30.80 |
| 0.02 | 0.14 | 585.0% | 23.45 |
| Sales Growth | ||
|---|---|---|
| Prev Yr | Last Yr | Growth |
| 220.3 | 249.0 | 13.0% |
| 221.9 | 266.1 | 19.9% |
| 227.1 | 283.3 | 24.7% |
| 237.9 | 292.5 | 23.0% |
Evercore Partners Inc. (EVR)
| EPS Growth | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Prev Yr | Past Yr | Growth | P/E |
| 0.09 | 0.15 | 66.7% | - |
| 0.11 | 0.16 | 45.5% | - |
| 0.01 | 0.09 | 800.0% | - |
| 0.26 | 0.06 | -76.9% | 70.2 |
| Next Two Quarters (est) | |||
| 0.15 | 0.41 | 170.7% | 40.93 |
| 0.16 | 0.43 | 167.5% | 28.83 |
| Sales Growth | ||
|---|---|---|
| Prev Yr | Last Yr | Growth |
| 115.1 | 107.6 | -6.5% |
| 93.6 | 112.9 | 20.6% |
| 70.9 | 147.7 | 108.3% |
| 129.6 | 168.5 | 30.0% |
| EPS Growth | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Prev Yr | Past Yr | Growth | P/E |
| 0.10 | 0.40 | 300.0% | - |
| 0.18 | -0.05 | -127.8% | - |
| 0.48 | -0.20 | -141.7% | - |
| -0.28 | 0.15 | 153.6% | 115.6 |
| Next Two Quarters (est) | |||
| 0.40 | 0.48 | 20.5% | 83.90 |
| -0.05 | 0.53 | 1162.0% | 32.75 |
| Sales Growth | ||
|---|---|---|
| Prev Yr | Last Yr | Growth |
| 338.1 | 387.8 | 14.7% |
| 377.1 | 444.2 | 17.8% |
| 391.8 | 455.0 | 16.1% |
| 383.3 | 474.3 | 23.7% |
Envestnet Inc. (ENV)
| EPS Growth | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Prev Yr | Past Yr | Growth | P/E |
| -0.25 | 0.03 | 112.0% | - |
| -0.20 | 0.04 | 120.0% | - |
| 0.01 | 0.08 | 700.0% | - |
| 0.02 | 0.06 | 200.0% | 58.9 |
| Next Two Quarters (est) | |||
| 0.03 | 0.09 | 186.7% | 46.02 |
| 0.04 | 0.12 | 187.5% | 35.59 |
| Sales Growth | ||
|---|---|---|
| Prev Yr | Last Yr | Growth |
| 21.8 | 27.6 | 26.6% |
| 21.6 | 29.3 | 35.6% |
| 24.2 | 31.3 | 29.3% |
| 24.6 | 32.0 | 30.1% |
Mellanox Technologies Ltd. (MLNX)
| EPS Growth | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Prev Yr | Past Yr | Growth | P/E |
| 0.13 | -0.02 | -115.4% | - |
| 0.16 | -0.05 | -131.3% | - |
| 0.16 | 0.06 | -62.5% | - |
| 0.10 | 0.13 | 30.0% | 290.2 |
| Next Two Quarters (est) | |||
| -0.02 | 0.29 | 1565.0% | 80.42 |
| -0.05 | 0.28 | 660.0% | 45.64 |
| Sales Growth | ||
|---|---|---|
| Prev Yr | Last Yr | Growth |
| 35.5 | 40.7 | 14.6% |
| 36.2 | 55.1 | 52.2% |
| 40.0 | 63.3 | 58.3% |
| 37.8 | 68.2 | 80.4% |
Saturday, November 12, 2011
Oil ... Good
Friday, November 11, 2011
A Good Recovery
The last two days almost made up for Wednesday's loss. DNS +259, +54, +24.
I thought SPRD was flagging but it was up 8.1% today. ZAGG and GMCRrrr 6.9% or more.
Trades:
The AMZN call spread closed out well ITM, +34.3%.
Portfolios:
The portfolios gave up some ground this week, ESG is at -11.44%, value-sales at +7.6%.
Reversal alerts: (48).
Stocks with some growth or a viable reversal pattern, lowest forward P/E first: NNBR, CMED, CWEI, CHK, ECPG, SAH, JCOM, CMCSA, ABV, AKRX, MKTX, SMBL, BWLD, CTSH, CBD, PRXL, LPSN, and LQDT.
I thought SPRD was flagging but it was up 8.1% today. ZAGG and GMCRrrr 6.9% or more.
Trades:
The AMZN call spread closed out well ITM, +34.3%.
Portfolios:
The portfolios gave up some ground this week, ESG is at -11.44%, value-sales at +7.6%.
Reversal alerts: (48).
Stocks with some growth or a viable reversal pattern, lowest forward P/E first: NNBR, CMED, CWEI, CHK, ECPG, SAH, JCOM, CMCSA, ABV, AKRX, MKTX, SMBL, BWLD, CTSH, CBD, PRXL, LPSN, and LQDT.
Thursday, November 10, 2011
GMCRrrr
It was a good day except for the part where GMCRrrr ripped me a new one. DNS +113, +4, +11.
GMCRrrr tanked 39%. Equity position: hammered. Next week's call spread: from way ITM to way OTM.
Shippers FREE, FRO, EXM, and by extension container leaser TAL did well today.
10 of 11 of my oil port stocks were up - high flier ATLS sat this one out.
Trades: none.
I tried to sell to sell the GMCRrrr call spread for cost. No takers.
Reversal alerts: (10).
By lowest forward P/E first: CS, CAST, SMS (current P/E), UNH, NTRI, SEP, CPSI, and WCN, Most have decent reversal patterns except for CS. Even WCN's forward P/E is 21.7, so none are particularly expensive.
GMCRrrr tanked 39%. Equity position: hammered. Next week's call spread: from way ITM to way OTM.
Shippers FREE, FRO, EXM, and by extension container leaser TAL did well today.
10 of 11 of my oil port stocks were up - high flier ATLS sat this one out.
Trades: none.
I tried to sell to sell the GMCRrrr call spread for cost. No takers.
Reversal alerts: (10).
By lowest forward P/E first: CS, CAST, SMS (current P/E), UNH, NTRI, SEP, CPSI, and WCN, Most have decent reversal patterns except for CS. Even WCN's forward P/E is 21.7, so none are particularly expensive.
Wednesday, November 9, 2011
Spoke Too Soon
Okay, that was a bad one. DNS -388, -106, -47.
Trades:
MIC hit a tight trailing stop, +8.8% - held two weeks.
The contingent order on my SPRD calls triggered and filled, +49.2% - held almost a month.
I bought stock in BAS, and added on to positions in KEG and RES.
I bought Friday's AMZN $205/$210 bull call spread that should net out around 36% if it holds $210.
Reversal alerts: none.
Trades:
MIC hit a tight trailing stop, +8.8% - held two weeks.
The contingent order on my SPRD calls triggered and filled, +49.2% - held almost a month.
I bought stock in BAS, and added on to positions in KEG and RES.
I bought Friday's AMZN $205/$210 bull call spread that should net out around 36% if it holds $210.
Reversal alerts: none.
Tuesday, November 8, 2011
Rearview Mirror
Here are watchlist stocks up 18% or more over the last two weeks. Sure beats a 2% CD.
Visiting Old Friends
I'm seeing more good days than bad, so I'm reestablishing positions with my favorite group. DNS +102, +32, +15.
Homebuilders HOV and TOL came out strong today with gains over 7%.
Trades:
PTEN, KEG, RES, BAS, and ROSE were on my short list of energy stocks that I want to accumulate. The first four were in my order editor. I put in limit orders for PTEN and KEG and got them. BAS and RES were up more (sigh), 6.7% and 4% respectively.
Reversal alerts: (6).
The t2 script alerted on BMY. RCKY also has a good reversal pattern.
CS and DMND also alerted.
Here's an "oil" tracking portfolio I put together Friday morning on ClearStation:
Homebuilders HOV and TOL came out strong today with gains over 7%.
Trades:
PTEN, KEG, RES, BAS, and ROSE were on my short list of energy stocks that I want to accumulate. The first four were in my order editor. I put in limit orders for PTEN and KEG and got them. BAS and RES were up more (sigh), 6.7% and 4% respectively.
Reversal alerts: (6).
The t2 script alerted on BMY. RCKY also has a good reversal pattern.
CS and DMND also alerted.
Here's an "oil" tracking portfolio I put together Friday morning on ClearStation:
Monday, November 7, 2011
Fear of Shoes
... or at least of the other one dropping. This market can't decide whether to celebrate great earnings or hide in the closet from Italy, Greece, or wherever the dart sticks in the map of Europe next week. DNS +85, +9, +8.
Force Protection (FRPT) got a nice bid from GD today, up 30.6%.
LIWA was up 9.1% today. Yep, sold that one too soon.
I'm still too cautious to take the tight limit orders off of MIC and RES ... I'm just glad they didn't get dumped at the low for today.
Trades: none.
Reversal alerts: (9).
None of these is particularly compelling, but some are okay ... lowest forward P/E first: UAL, BMY, BBBY, CL, CPSI.
Force Protection (FRPT) got a nice bid from GD today, up 30.6%.
LIWA was up 9.1% today. Yep, sold that one too soon.
I'm still too cautious to take the tight limit orders off of MIC and RES ... I'm just glad they didn't get dumped at the low for today.
Trades: none.
Reversal alerts: (9).
None of these is particularly compelling, but some are okay ... lowest forward P/E first: UAL, BMY, BBBY, CL, CPSI.
Friday, November 4, 2011
Not So Bad
While the indexes were down for the week, many of the better stocks actually closed higher. DNS -61, -12, -8.
RBCN, ACOR and VECO had a good day, up 10% or more.
Trades:
GMCR held the line (and then some) so the $55/$60 call spread I bought Wednesday expired well ITM, +36.0%.
Portfolios:
The ESG portfolio now has 12 (of 37) positions above water and is at -10.67%. The value-sales port is at +9.63%.
Reversal alerts: none.
RBCN, ACOR and VECO had a good day, up 10% or more.
Trades:
GMCR held the line (and then some) so the $55/$60 call spread I bought Wednesday expired well ITM, +36.0%.
Portfolios:
The ESG portfolio now has 12 (of 37) positions above water and is at -10.67%. The value-sales port is at +9.63%.
Reversal alerts: none.
Thursday, November 3, 2011
Missed the Boat?
Well I sure don't like being on the sidelines here. The markets were supposed to resume the downtrend today, but there was too much good news. DNS +208, +58, +23. Sigh.
ANR tops the watchlist with a 13.3% gain today. NFLX was up 10.7% when the closing bell rang.
GMCR gave me some relief on my call spreads, up 8.5%. RES may be getting in gear with its peers, up 7.6%.
Trades: none.
Reversal alerts: (1).
IDCC looks like it will start improving two quarters out but I'd wait for the numbers to firm up a bit (or a lot).
ANR tops the watchlist with a 13.3% gain today. NFLX was up 10.7% when the closing bell rang.
GMCR gave me some relief on my call spreads, up 8.5%. RES may be getting in gear with its peers, up 7.6%.
Trades: none.
Reversal alerts: (1).
IDCC looks like it will start improving two quarters out but I'd wait for the numbers to firm up a bit (or a lot).
Wednesday, November 2, 2011
DOAH!
It was a great day, unless you were in cash. DNS +178, +33, +20.
I want my KEG, CF, and LIWA back! All were up 5% or more today. At least FMCN had a good day, and SPRD continues to nudge upwards.
Trades:
I ditched the NLY after getting the dividend and seeing the distribution days pile up. The cap "gains" across three accounts come in around -8%. Fortunately the dividends covered a large portion of that.
I bought Friday's $55/60 GMCR bull call spread. I'm hopeful, but this one's certainly not money in the bank.
Reversal alerts: (4).
ATHN popped up after eight days of decline. The stock had a nice run for reasons I never understood ... double digit sales growth with a P/E falling from 91 to 70 didn't do it for me, and I didn't see anything in the news to fall in love with. I'm not expecting lightning to strike twice here, but the reversal pattern looks pretty good.
The t2 script came up with CVC and AVP.
CVC is sporting a "value-trap" looking P/E of 3 until they shed the MRQ's earnings of $4.27 and revert back to the $0.32 range. Not interested.
AVP announced a dividend today and is expected to have a little earnings bump next quarter with a P/E between 9 and 11. Curious.
I want my KEG, CF, and LIWA back! All were up 5% or more today. At least FMCN had a good day, and SPRD continues to nudge upwards.
Trades:
I ditched the NLY after getting the dividend and seeing the distribution days pile up. The cap "gains" across three accounts come in around -8%. Fortunately the dividends covered a large portion of that.
I bought Friday's $55/60 GMCR bull call spread. I'm hopeful, but this one's certainly not money in the bank.
Reversal alerts: (4).
ATHN popped up after eight days of decline. The stock had a nice run for reasons I never understood ... double digit sales growth with a P/E falling from 91 to 70 didn't do it for me, and I didn't see anything in the news to fall in love with. I'm not expecting lightning to strike twice here, but the reversal pattern looks pretty good.
The t2 script came up with CVC and AVP.
CVC is sporting a "value-trap" looking P/E of 3 until they shed the MRQ's earnings of $4.27 and revert back to the $0.32 range. Not interested.
AVP announced a dividend today and is expected to have a little earnings bump next quarter with a P/E between 9 and 11. Curious.
Tuesday, November 1, 2011
Cash By Default
It's been a pretty brutal week so far. DNS -297, -77, -35.
SPRD and MIC were up again today.
Trades:
The trailing stop loss orders continue to do their job.
CF shares sold, +18.3%.
KEG shares sold, +1.1%.
LIWA shares sold, -4.1%.
MSCC shares sold, +1.2%.
WPRT shares sold, +2.1%.
Many of these closed higher than they sold, but if the markets tank again tomorrow, I'll be quite content.
Reversal alerts: none.
SPRD and MIC were up again today.
Trades:
The trailing stop loss orders continue to do their job.
CF shares sold, +18.3%.
KEG shares sold, +1.1%.
LIWA shares sold, -4.1%.
MSCC shares sold, +1.2%.
WPRT shares sold, +2.1%.
Many of these closed higher than they sold, but if the markets tank again tomorrow, I'll be quite content.
Reversal alerts: none.
Monday, October 31, 2011
Protecting Profits
The beatings shall continue. DNS -276, -53, -32.
MNTA was up 20.9% today. I was fortunate that SPRD and MIC were up today. Everything else, not so much.
Trades:
I've got just about every position protected with trailing stop loss orders. If everything sells, then I'll just wait for the next cycle. I'm taking no profit for granted.
HAYN hit the 8% TSL, +9.9%.
VRTS hit the 5% TSL, +5.5%.
CVI hit the 4% TSL, +1.7%.
The contingent order on my MSCC call options fired and filled, +9.6%.
Reversal alerts: (1).
AEM - kind of a long shot.
MNTA was up 20.9% today. I was fortunate that SPRD and MIC were up today. Everything else, not so much.
Trades:
I've got just about every position protected with trailing stop loss orders. If everything sells, then I'll just wait for the next cycle. I'm taking no profit for granted.
HAYN hit the 8% TSL, +9.9%.
VRTS hit the 5% TSL, +5.5%.
CVI hit the 4% TSL, +1.7%.
The contingent order on my MSCC call options fired and filled, +9.6%.
Reversal alerts: (1).
AEM - kind of a long shot.
Saturday, October 29, 2011
Adding BAS to Watch List
It's getting hard to find good growth candidates that haven't already run very well in the last 3-1/2 weeks.
My earlier strategy as we came out of the bottom was to buy many small positions in my favorite stocks and rotate out of the losers into the winners. But after so many stocks ran so well I was content to let the winners drift down into trailing stop loss orders and sell, then I'd buy something at the bottom of the cycle.
So here we are with oil above $93, and the under-performers are fewer and of lesser quality. On that cautionary note, here's the latest addition to the watch list, BAS. With consistent quarterly sales growth above 60%, and sustaining a higher level of earnings while shedding losses to drop the P/E from 37 to under 9.
My earlier strategy as we came out of the bottom was to buy many small positions in my favorite stocks and rotate out of the losers into the winners. But after so many stocks ran so well I was content to let the winners drift down into trailing stop loss orders and sell, then I'd buy something at the bottom of the cycle.
So here we are with oil above $93, and the under-performers are fewer and of lesser quality. On that cautionary note, here's the latest addition to the watch list, BAS. With consistent quarterly sales growth above 60%, and sustaining a higher level of earnings while shedding losses to drop the P/E from 37 to under 9.
| EPS Growth | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Prev Yr | Past Yr | Growth | P/E |
| -0.61 | -0.05 | 91.8% | - |
| -0.54 | -0.46 | 14.8% | - |
| -0.27 | 0.41 | 251.9% | - |
| -0.23 | 0.66 | 387.0% | 37.4 |
| Next Two Quarters (est) | |||
| -0.05 | 0.61 | 1326.0% | 16.62 |
| -0.46 | 0.59 | 227.2% | 8.86 |
| Sales Growth | ||
|---|---|---|
| Prev Yr | Last Yr | Growth |
| 128.1 | 212.9 | 66.2% |
| 143.0 | 246.1 | 72.1% |
| 175.1 | 296.9 | 69.6% |
| 197.3 | 346.0 | 75.4% |
Holdings
Here's what I've got right now along with its performance. Option gains are computed using intrinsic value only.
| REIT | ARR | 5.3% | |
| NLY | -5.8% | ||
| Advertising | FMCN | 78.6% | call spread |
| Chemicals | CF | 30.4% | |
| Food | GMCR | -6.5% | |
| GMCR | 78.6% | call spread | |
| Infrastructure | MIC | 7.5% | |
| Investment Svcs | VRTS | 9.7% | |
| Metals | HAYN | 17.9% | |
| LIWA | 3.1% | ||
| Oil | CVI | 6.1% | |
| KEG | 13.5% | ||
| RES | 2.9% | ||
| Semiconductors | MSCC | 7.5% | |
| MSCC | 23.9% | call | |
| SPRD | 52.0% | call |
Friday, October 28, 2011
Good Enough
Not a bad close considering yesterday's run and the fact the markets were underwater most of the day. DNS +23, -1, +1.
Watchlisters up 8% or more are JDAS, AMD, JKS, VDSI, GMCR, and MIPS.
Trades:
UEPS opened up 14% so that got sold from two accounts when it drifted down into a red tape, +13.4% and +9.0%.
Portfolios:
This great week brought the porfolios up considerably. The ESG port is at -10.55% with 8 of 37 positions above water (the most ever) and the Value-Sales port moved up to +12.97%.
Reversal alerts: none.
Watchlisters up 8% or more are JDAS, AMD, JKS, VDSI, GMCR, and MIPS.
Trades:
UEPS opened up 14% so that got sold from two accounts when it drifted down into a red tape, +13.4% and +9.0%.
Portfolios:
This great week brought the porfolios up considerably. The ESG port is at -10.55% with 8 of 37 positions above water (the most ever) and the Value-Sales port moved up to +12.97%.
Reversal alerts: none.
Thursday, October 27, 2011
Ca-Ching!
A proposed resolution to the Greek quagmire sent the markets flying. DNS +340, +88, +43.
Watchlisters gaining over 15% today were VDSI (29.5%), VIT (25%), CWEI (22.9%), NEWP, MS, YGE, and SWS.
Portfolio members with a good showing were VRTS (11.5%), HAYN (11.4%), KEG (8.5%), and RES (8%).
Trades:
Some early volatility sent GTLS into the 8% TSL at 10 am, +12.2%.
TAL hit the 8%-er and SPRD the 7% TSL around 11 am, +5.2% and 15.6% respectively. I still have SPRD call options.
Reversal alerts: (1), junk.
Watchlisters gaining over 15% today were VDSI (29.5%), VIT (25%), CWEI (22.9%), NEWP, MS, YGE, and SWS.
Portfolio members with a good showing were VRTS (11.5%), HAYN (11.4%), KEG (8.5%), and RES (8%).
Trades:
Some early volatility sent GTLS into the 8% TSL at 10 am, +12.2%.
TAL hit the 8%-er and SPRD the 7% TSL around 11 am, +5.2% and 15.6% respectively. I still have SPRD call options.
Reversal alerts: (1), junk.
Wednesday, October 26, 2011
Schizophrenic Day
Start strong, tank, finish stronger. That was enough to drive someone crazy. DNS +162, +12, +13.
ANAD topped the other watchlisters with a nice 18% gain. Portfolio members SPRD, GTLS, WPRT, KEG, and CVI were up between 5.1 and 7.7%.
Trades:
WLL hit the 8% trailing stop, +11.4%.
My nemesis GMCR continued to vex me. It looked like it bottomed, I bought more to dollar cost average. Then it went down. Then it went down more. I threw up my hands and sold my first, most expensive position, -36.2%. Then it went up. I lost money on both trades. Grrr. No, Gmcrrrr.
I bought CVI and UEPS shares as mentioned in the last post.
The sale of the GMCR gave me some extra cash so I re-bought HAYN shares which I wanted to do since HAYN was hammered yesterday, and was down another 4% today. That worked out okay because it rebounded and the position closed the day up 4.7%.
While I was selling GMCR shares, I was buying GMCR's November $55/$60 call spread for $2.80. [I just noticed that I bought November options, not Friday's weekly options. Gmcrrrr.]
Reversal alerts: none.
ANAD topped the other watchlisters with a nice 18% gain. Portfolio members SPRD, GTLS, WPRT, KEG, and CVI were up between 5.1 and 7.7%.
Trades:
WLL hit the 8% trailing stop, +11.4%.
My nemesis GMCR continued to vex me. It looked like it bottomed, I bought more to dollar cost average. Then it went down. Then it went down more. I threw up my hands and sold my first, most expensive position, -36.2%. Then it went up. I lost money on both trades. Grrr. No, Gmcrrrr.
I bought CVI and UEPS shares as mentioned in the last post.
The sale of the GMCR gave me some extra cash so I re-bought HAYN shares which I wanted to do since HAYN was hammered yesterday, and was down another 4% today. That worked out okay because it rebounded and the position closed the day up 4.7%.
While I was selling GMCR shares, I was buying GMCR's November $55/$60 call spread for $2.80. [I just noticed that I bought November options, not Friday's weekly options. Gmcrrrr.]
Reversal alerts: none.
+ GMCR, CVI, UEPS
CVI is a deal.
GMCR might have bottomed.
UEPS is speculative. (See tables in previous post.)
GMCR might have bottomed.
UEPS is speculative. (See tables in previous post.)
CVR Energy Inc. (CVI)
| EPS Growth | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Prev Yr | Past Yr | Growth | P/E |
| -0.16 | 0.27 | 268.8% | - |
| 0.11 | 0.03 | -72.7% | - |
| -0.14 | 0.53 | 478.6% | - |
| 0.01 | 1.44 | - | 11.8 |
| Next Two Quarters (est) | |||
| 0.27 | 1.65 | 510.4% | 7.28 |
| 0.03 | 0.73 | 2320.0% | 6.11 |
| Sales Growth | ||
|---|---|---|
| Prev Yr | Last Yr | Growth |
| 811.7 | 1031.2 | 27.0% |
| 921.9 | 1148.2 | 24.5% |
| 894.5 | 1167.3 | 30.5% |
| 1005.9 | 1447.7 | 43.9% |
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