Monday, February 28, 2011

Indigestion

I'm sitting here trying to digest what happened today. The indexes are up ... DNS +96, +1, +7. Even the S&P MidCap 400 and Russell 2000 were up. Watch list winners: PDLI, plus oil stocks HNR, GLBL, RES & BEXP. Losers: penny stock CBAI then PWER, RBCN, YGE, SPRD & WFR. Even JKS finished down 3.6%. A bad day for tech.

Trades: none.

Reversal orders: (14), those with reasonable chart patterns: (t2) ANEN CXW LQDT UFPI & WPI. (hlr) IGT LQDT (again) NWPX & SHW.

JKS Reporting for Duty

JKS reported EPS $2.36 vs. estimated 1.56. It's P/E is now 8.86 - at least until the open!

Sales were $267.7M. Their guidance for next quarter's sales is $280-290M, with 2011 projected at $1.4 - 1.5B.

That's quarterly earnings growth of 424% sequentially, 1375% YoY. Quarterly sales growth is 22.6% sequentially and 156% YoY.

Sunday, February 27, 2011

Interesting Stocks

Here's what's getting my attention as I'm screening the latest database ...

MNTA's sales have jumped10x, earnings growth is triple-digit for the last two and next two projected quarters. The P/E will fall from 18 to 4.6. It's coming out of a base so I see it running for a little while. Please note that it's yearly earnings are estimated to fall back to around $1 that will drop it's 2012 P/E to 13 at its current price. Optionable.

Stocks screen: stocks with strong sales and earnings acceleration:

                                                                                       
TickerP/EP/E
1qo
P/E
2qo
CF28.617.2912.12
LDK14.47.385.71
PVH223.2104.9826.93
SWK107.326.5219.15
TTMI18.814.5311.22
JKS26.811.727.78
MNTA18.27.274.60
SOL11.05.914.81
RES18.914.0811.97


As usually lately, a number of solar stocks (LDK, JKS, and SOL) are showing up. With subsidies being cut, these stocks could be struggling before long.

Saturday, February 26, 2011

Bakken

Cramer's picks for the Bakken oil field. You might recognize some of the names.

Bakken. Other BOF plays.

Friday, February 25, 2011

That Was Refreshing

Ah, the market finally went up today. DNS +62, +43, +14.

Trades: none. I put in low-ball orders for SMTC and SPRD calls but there was no Friday afternoon panic selling.

JKS reports earnings Monday morning.

ENTR may have a pulse.

CCM is back to a new low. If you're really quiet, you can hear CCM owners kicking themselves.

Value-sales portfolioe, +52.6%
The value sales port rebounded nicely, up +52.6%.

Reversal alerts: (29), four with decent reversal patterns and fundamentals. BBT is my pick here, CPSI is higher than I'd like, FULT and COGO bring up the rear. I'll stick with what I've already got though.

Thursday, February 24, 2011

Hope It's Not a Train

Could that be light at the end of this tunnel? Prices seemed to firm up a bit today. DNS -37, +15, +8.

Trades:

I bought shares of JKS and CF.

I bought an ITM March call spread on CF ($134.02). You should be able to pick up a $125/$135 spread for $6 or less that's worth $9 now and expires in three weeks. That's 50% in three weeks on a great stock ... even Cramer likes it. It's even sporting a strong reversal signal with good symmetry following a weaker one.

Other thoughts:

Thanks John for GTLS who beat estimates. Ca-ching!

RBCN holding strong.

ENTR still in search of a bottom.

CCM got away ... maybe.

Reversal alerts: (20) fitered down to:
BRCM - strong sales growth and a P/E falling from 21 to 18.
CBOU - guided up yesterday and bounced 15%. The forward P/E was 18 ... probably much lower now.
STEC - sales have been climbing, earnings will flatten out with the P/E falling from 38 to 17.
ERIC - little or no sales growth but sustaining a higher level of earnings dropping the P/E from 23 to 17.

Wednesday, February 23, 2011

Jumped the Gun

Another rough day. I may have bought too much too soon ... we'll know before long. DNS -107, -33, -8.

Trades:
Other than what was mentioned below, MCHP hit its trailing stop, +6.76%.

I picked up another JKS call spread for March.

I'm thinking the June JKS spread may be a bit long to wait for a spread, so I may cover the short call if it gets cheap enough.

Earnings:

WLL reported after the bell today. GTLS and IMAX report tomorrow, DRYS on Friday.

Reversal alerts: (4), nothing interesting.

+Ming Yang

I bought shares and calls on MY and PWER.

I sold calls on AEIS at break-even (+1.8%) and Shaeffer pick SHW (-37.7%).

I need this market to get back on track! The energy plays are doing okay, but the tech stocks need some help ... and Ford too.

Tuesday, February 22, 2011

Those Whacky Lybians

DNS -178, -78, -28.

Bought:
Stock - RES, TTMI and WLL.
March options -  JASO (x 2), TTMI, and VSH calls.
April options - JKS spread (x 2) and VSH calls.
June options - JKS spread.

Reversal alerts: EOG

Monday, February 21, 2011

Holiday

No trades other than expired options.

CF shown below.

ENTR call options were exercised, buy at $7.50.

DRYS protective put expired worthless.

Friday, February 18, 2011

Looking for Cracks

in the pavement, so to speak. I don't think the DOW's gain was representative of the general market. DNS +73, +2, +3.

Trades:
Trailing stops were hit for ANR (-1.93%) and CF (-4.92% & -3.75%).

I had a limit order in to sell my SMTC calls when it got back to even. SMTC gapped up, filled my order, and kept going (+3.16%).

My CF call spread expired today, +138.4% less commissions.

The value-sales port is up +57.3%.

Reversal alerts: (3) ... junk.

Thursday, February 17, 2011

Quick Draw Mc ... Crap

I pulled the trigger a little too quick on those RBCN positions and cut my gains in half. I could have waited a day maybe. DNS +30, +6, +4.

Trades:

RBCN gapped up and then sold off for the first three minutes and triggered my stop loss order, +26.9%. I still have half of my March calls.

I sold MTX because it was a reversal play that never got moving. +0.91%

The limit order for half of my TTMI calls sold, +41.2%.

I bought a few OTM SSW May calls.

Reversal alerts: (6), but nothing interesting.

Wednesday, February 16, 2011

Hedging My Bets

For whatever reason I opted to continue the theme of cleaning house and taking some profits off of the table by selling into the rally. DNS +62, +21, +8.

Stock Trades:

I bought TE.

PAAS gapped down and tripped the 7% TSL, -6.9%.

I sold half of my shares in PTEN (+25.5) and RBCN (+9.0%).

I tightened up the stop loss orders from 7% to 5% (trailing).

Option Trades:

I closed out my March calls on AEIS, +34.8% (held one day).

I closed out ALTR [Shaeffer pick] (+50.5%), SCCO (-41.7%), and SPRD (+0.01%).

I sold half of my RBCN calls (+46.2%).

Reversal alerts: (11). t2: TE (again) & BRY. hlr: CCM. CCM has been dropping hard but will be holding a P/E of 8 with 30% YoY quarterly sales growth and good yearly sales and earnings growth. Wait for it to bottom.

Tuesday, February 15, 2011

That's One

Today's drop was no fun. DNS -42, -13, -5. Many have been fearing a pull-back or correction, and with much more of this action they'll be quick to move into cash.

I began looking for under-performing positions to sell to 1) limit my exposure, 2) raise cash for the buying opportunities that corrections bring.

Trades:
AEIS reported earnings and gapped down and triggered the 7% trailing stop loss order: -8.10%. I held onto the April calls and even low-balled some March call options and got them, thinking the selling may have been overdone.

I sold my calls for Shaeffer pick LEN: -1.18%.

I sold my DRYS calls: +22.96%. I still have DRYS shares, protected by a Feb $5 put.

Trailing stop loss order triggered later for MIPS (+6.91%) and SPRD (-2.19%).

Reversal alerts: (6), TEco is the pick here, market withstanding.

Monday, February 14, 2011

Steady As She Goes

A mixed day but not bad for the Nasdaq and S&P. Great for ANAD, NFLX, JKS, FTO, and SIMG (all 6%+). My holdings PAAS, RBCN and VSEA did well (4%+) and AEIS, ANR, DRYS, MIPS, and XLE nudged up 2%+. SPRD took a hit and ENTR continues to be a serial disappointer.

JKS gapped up and stayed high - I obviously missed it. It went on to gain 6.79% for the day.

Trades:
I'd bought TSRA thinking it might bounce; it didn't and there are better places to put my money, so ... sold (+3.10%).

AEIS had been lagging so I sold the Feb calls for a small profit (+10.8%). Then it went up a bit more. I still have Apr. calls I'll hold if AEIS continues to recover.

I put in orders to sell ENTR; calls, stock, whatever. It doesn't matter why you like a stock if everyone else is selling, and that seemed to be the case here. BUT, when I looked at the chart and saw higher highs and higher lows, the stock appeared to be coming out of a bottom. I felt like I should hang onto it, so I canceled the orders. It went down even more. Yet I feel I made the right decision to hang tight. It's primed for a reversal.

Reversal alerts: EPAY MRLN NS and CSR. Nothing very interesting.

Sunday, February 13, 2011

JKS and SWK

JinkoSolar has been showing up repeatedly in my scans. JKS had a nice 300% run followed by a strong sell-off, then a 30% run and has recently consolidated with some recovery. Because of the volatility and not being at a particularly strong buy point, I wouldn't recommend it for a buy and hold position now. But the fundamentals are compelling.

Earnings-wise, JKS has gone from declining losses last year to increasing profitability this year: $0.16, .13, .36, .45 with estimates of $1.62 and 1.25 (both > 850% YoY) $/share for the next two quarters, dropping its P/E from 26.2 to 7.8. That's triple digit YoY earnings growth for six quarters. Estimates have been revised upward and analyst opinions are favorable.

There's triple-digit YoY quarterly sales growth too for the last three quarters, and estimated for the next two (152% two quarters out).

I'm going to start a position here and probably buy more either on dips or strength.


Stanley Black & Decker is also sporting triple digit sales growth (around +150%)  for the last three quarters. SWK is resuming profitability and will shed some losses that will drop its P/E from 106 to 18.9.

SWK is at the top of its chart now, so I wouldn't buy here but it's got a spot in my watch list.

Saturday, February 12, 2011

Wealth-Lab Simulation

This is a 6-month run of the t2 script against a select universe of 1459 stocks. (One of my two daily chart scans.)

Equity Graph
 
Performance Stats

Weekly gain/loss

Friday, February 11, 2011

Here We Go

That's more like it. DNS +44, +19, +7. Watch list members with 4% or more gains: SWS JDSU WYNN VECO SSW PDLI CMG and YGE.

Trades: none. It was just nice to see some of the laggards getting back to even and the winners nudging upward.

Value-sales portfolio, +55.6%
Reversals: (11) of which only NIHD and NS are of the slightest interest.

Thursday, February 10, 2011

Rough Opening

The markets opened poorly but managed to recover ... mostly. It was a good day if you owned DIOD NTES SNDA FTO EBAY RBCN ESV AHS RVBD VECO or UA because they gained 4% or more.

Trades:
I bought more ENTR call options as the stock was bouncing around today's bottom. I'm done dollar cost averaging until this stock shows some strength.

I bought GTLS shares based on this Mad Money snippet sent to me by John.

My break-even limit order for my Feb VECO calls triggered (+13.54%). One minute I'm trying not to lose all my money on an out-of-the-money call that expires in 6 trading days, the next I'm whining because I didn't double my investment. I can't win with me.

Reversal alerts: ESV FBNC LFL LFUS SORL & VPHM.

Wednesday, February 9, 2011

A Good Day to Buy?

85% of my watch list is red. The good news is that RBCN and MIPS are coming out of their bases, and CF is hitting new highs. ENTR needs to get some traction.

Trades:
I bought stocks CF, RBCN, and VSH.

I bought calls options for Ford, ENTR, VSEA, and VSH, and rolled the short call higher for the IMAX spread.

Reversal alerts: (5) - nothing compelling.

+ RBCN, ENTR, F

I bought RBCN stock and call options for ENTR and Ford.

I rolled the short calls on the IMAX spread, buying $1 of intrinsic value for $0.60.

There's an limit order in place to buy VSH calls.

Tuesday, February 8, 2011

Nice Run

Except for the morning dip that kicked me out of WLL, it was a nice run today. DNS +72, +13, +6.

Trades:
I bought some protective puts on DRYS.

WLL dipped and tripped its 5% TSL. (+4.59%)

Seller's Remorse:
CSTR UA MCP WFR & BRKS.

Reversal alerts: t2: none. hlr: CBD LGL & SO.

Monday, February 7, 2011

Good Start

... too bad it didn't keep going. DNS +69, +15, +8.

Trades:
I bought XLE and CF shares for small accounts thinking these are good buy-and-hold stocks.

SSW was headed down toward it's trailing stop so I moved the stop up (non-trailing). I wished I'd checked my cost basis because it sold later and I took a small loss (-0.29%). I could have sold a bit higher.

I bought some Feb VECO call options, thinking they might beat estimates.

Reversal alerts: (10). Unfiltered ...  t2: CBKN CCOI CHRW INFY & SCRL. hlr: LFL MBI PCG RBCN & SBIB.

Saturday, February 5, 2011

Holdings

FWIW these are my holdings. Obviously I've been buying a lot this week, and a number of those stocks were at relative lows. I'd love to see them pull up but the market hasn't been cooperating. I figure I'm well positioned to either make a lot of money, or lose a lot of money. Funny how this investing stuff works.

Falling Knives

I could write a chapter on how I mishandled CSTR when it gapped down Friday. I could have left the trailing stop in place and sold at the bid at the open. I could have put in a tight trailing stop loss order at the open and sold near the high. I could have not sold near the bottom. I could have not bought and sold call options that cost me even more money. I misread the tea leaves at every turn. There are times when you execute moves like this brilliantly and look like a genius. This was not one of those times. Stock -34.4%, calls -25.1%.

Value sales portfolio, +52.4%
I bought Feb and Apr call options on AEIS. One was a standing order that filled at the open, the second was me trying to buy a good stock at a discount.

I bought ENTR shares.

Reversal alerts: (11) of which F VLY CISG BWA BCH WX SIGA MASI & LUV have some redeeming quality in addition to their chart.

Thursday, February 3, 2011

Mid-Morning Scare

It was a decent recovery but I could have done without the sharp drop this morning. Or at least done all my buying then. Oh well.

Trades: The three calls in the previous post plus AEIS shares. ENTR was up, then back down, then up, then negative. I like it better when things just go up.

Reversal alerts: only (2) today. GIS with 0.7% sales growth and a flat P/E of 13-14 or WTSLA with a P/E going from 4 to 25 and 0.45% sales growth. Don't hold your breath waiting for these to show up in my watch list, much less my portfolio.

+ ENTR RBCN TSRA

All call options. Fingers crossed!

It Pays to Read the News (ENTR)

As I'm adding ENTR to my watch list I see they reported earnings after the bell yesterday. Talks about being behind the curve.

ENTR closed at $11.01, now at $11.75/$11.76. Now I'll have to see how it opens.

Wednesday, February 2, 2011

Just Buy Stocks that Start with 'A'

Theres' the obvious AAPL, but these may be doing even better: AEIS AMAT AMP APH ASML and AXE. And these are just the ones from my watch list!

See how easy stock picking is?

Buying Spree

Trades:
Stocks bought: DRYS MIPS MTX RBCN SPRD and XLE.
Calls bought: DRYS & TTMI.
Call spreads bought: XLE.

The limit order filled for the last UA call option. (+40.2% for the Apr 45 calls)

I sold MCP call options (Schaeffer pick) after deciding the stock wasn't my cup of tea. (+10.6%) Then the stock went up 9%. I guess I don't like making money.

Reversal alerts: (18) over $1, SNI TMH LGL VPHM and maybe TXRH are modestly interesting.

Travis pointed me to these short squeeze plays and I really like ENTR with an 8.5 day short ratio, YoY quarterly sales growth of 56 - 98% for the last three qtrs, triple digit YoY quarterly earnings growth for the last four and next two quarters dropping the P/E from 51 to 19. 192 institutions own it and 90% of their trades are buys. ENTR beat earnings estimates the last four qtrs between 25 and 5%.

Shopping List

If the market holds I'll be looking to get into the following stocks ...

Reversal plays with strong fundamentals: RBCN and DRYS. RBCN tried to pull out of its tailspin yesterday but still has considerable negative momentum. The shippers haven't been moving upward with any consistency. DRYS is probably safe here, RBCN seems to be slipping again.

Reversal plays with modest fundamentals: MIPS and MTX. In a good market stocks with these patterns will launch out and let you grab a few percent over a short period. Today's futures aren't promising, so maybe I can get a discount and the market will hold.

High going higher: AEIS SPRD & XLE. The first two have strong growth. XLE could pull back with oil prices.

Tuesday, February 1, 2011

Back Where We Were

... before Friday. The Dow is slightly improved. DNS +148, +51, +21.

Trades:
I bought SSW shares again, and RBCN calls.

Limit sell orders triggered for Shaeffer pick BTU (+49.1%) and my March and April UA calls (+53.3% and +40.2%). [One UA call didn't fill.]

Reversal alerts: (65) over $1. Filtering on earnings growth yields VECO SUP EBS GB SIGM PRFT & COLB. If I were to buy on the chart alone, with less emphasis on growth, those would be MTX MRVL MIPS EBS TSRA SUBK PRSC & GILT. Those need a lot more research because a few of them are never coming back.