Toes In

I'm dipping back in with smaller positions and tight 5% trailing stops on equities. DNS +128, +38, +14.

Trades:

I was starting to worry about TEO so I put a 2% trailing stop on it. Sold, +5.2%.

I bought a June call spread and shares for PTEN. I just like the growth and rising estimates too much to not be a holder here.

I converted July PTIE calls to a call spread.

Reversal alerts: (19). Nothing spectacular but maybe DDE, ABT, or SPRD.

Encouraging

Three "up" days - I'm starting to wonder if we've turned the corner. I want to see what happens Tuesday. DNS +39, +14, +5.

Value-sales portfolio, +43.5%

Trades: none. Just my monthly ARR dividend.

Reversal alerts: (57) but nothing really strong. KELYA CAST DISCA OI and WSM will have to do.

Two Days

... don't make a trend. I'm not feeling like I missed the boat just yet. DNS +8, +21.5, +5.

Trades:

Visa spiked down and sold the calls, -5.3%.

Reversal alerts: (55) filtered down to ZAGG, SWK, STE, and VRSN based on sales and earnings growth, though I don't like the sloppy indicator charts (lower confidence of reversal) though it won't matter if we get a rising tide here.

* * * Another Four Bite The Dust

DNS +38, +15, +4.

Let's see, a broad rally on higher oil prices. Can you say "bull trap"? I'm not buying it.

Trades:

AMP shares hit the trailing stop (-3.5%).

Trailing stops for call options triggered as well: HCN (-8.2%), RBCN (-72.3%), and TAL (-52.9%).

Reversal alerts: (66) filtered for earnings growth and combined sales and earnings acceleration: TBBK CVGI MMSI ETFC RENT and CBL.

Defying Gravity

Stocks within 10% of their highs (a/o Friday's prices), with 50% estimated yearly sales growth over the next two quarters, four quarters of accelerated sales + earnings growth, two quarters of accelerated sales growth, 4 quarters of sequential sales growth, ordered by lowest forward P/E first:
SRMC ENDP DAR OVTI NSTC SYMC STE VRNT PBCT ARE CVD MSCI ANF EXXI ROSE VRSN EQIX ALXN GMCR ATHN IRC and CRM.

Cautiously Pessimistic

DNS -25, -13, -1.

Trades:

VSH shares hit their trailing stop, -14.9%.

I put 10% trailing stops on my June calls today. They triggered for FMCN (-38.7%), SSW (-45.9%), and STEC (-15.1%).

I sure hope I'm not selling at the bottom. (If only I'd said that three weeks ago!)

Reversal alerts: (99) filtered for earnings growth and sales and earnings acceleration, lowest forward P/E first: TSO COGO STEI MIC VZ SPAR AOS FLR ATI HCP UFPI EXXI and ARBA.

Backing Out

DNS -131, -44, -16.

This market is just too hard to make money in. All my favs are getting beaten up on a daily basis. The trailing stop loss order will take me out of the stock positions, and I'll just sell off the calls while there's some value left.

PTIE, TEO, and ARR are my only positions showing any staying power.

Trades:

I sold off the SPRD shares acquired with May calls, -92.4% for the full trade.

My FMCN shares hit the 6% trailing stop in one trading day, -6.2%.

I sold my June calls for CVI (-62.8%), PTEN (-36.9%), and TEO (+29.4%).

Reversal alerts: (2) - PTI and TSL.

Growth Screen

Stocks with projected 50% yearly earnings growth over the next two quarters and 3 quarters of triple digit sales growth, lowest forward P/E first: LDK* ARR CF PTEN PVH NBIX SPPI.

ARR has recovered from the price drop following the announcement of a secondary offering and offers a nice dividend paid monthly. I have ARR positions in three accounts.

(*) Cramer says stay away from LDK.

Options Closed

To recap, ARUN -100%.

I was able to mitigate the RBCN losses, but still -54.9%.

I have to sell the SPRD shares to close out that trade.

Arublaaah

... Networks. DNS -93, -20, -10.

Trades:

I bought shares in FMCN.

Limit orders for my FMCN and PTEN call spreads triggered, +32.0% and -46.9% respectively.

Value-sales portfolio, +44.1%

Today Aruba Networks closed down 17.1%, dropping the price from $32.69 to $27.10 making my $28/32 call spread worthless. The value went from $4/share to $0 in one hour. Sheez.

I'm glad to put this options expiration behind me ... the worst in a long time. I'm okay with the stocks ... the trailing stop loss orders did their job.

Reversal alerts: (14) yielding SWS RBCN RCKY WRLD ICUI ENH BKH ETP & OTTR.

The Day Before the Day Before

the day after tomorrow. DNS +45, +8, +3.

Trades:

I rolled the upper call of the PTEN spread for a bit more value.

Otherwise I'm just waiting for expiration with (3) spreads priced above the upper call and (3) where I'll have to sell the called shares.

Reversal alerts: (17) filtered for earnings growth down to PCLN and NGPC with an 8.5% dividend.

The Strangest Thing Happened

... we didn't get slaughtered today. DNS +81, +32, +12.

Trades:

I bought HCP shares.

I converted all of my May calls to call spreads - some before the prices ran up. :-(

When ARUN moved up, I rolled the upper call to buy another dollar of intrinsic value for 60 cents. I'm still going to lose on the overall trade, but every little bit helps at this point.

I sold the OTM GTLS call for more than zero (I have such high standards these days). -99.6%

Reversal alerts: (78). Filtered for earnings growth, lowest forward P/E first. Some of the charts are ugly!

LDK AINV ROC JAZZ FCF BGCP CATV MTRX GTLS JSII NGPC PLCM RENT HCN & GIFI.

Spread Conversions

With May expiration looming, I sold higher calls to reduce my cost basis in ARUN, FMCN, PTEN, RBCN and SPRD.

Stocks Up, Options Down

I'm ready for a three day rally! DNS -69, +0.9, -0.5.

Trades: none.

Reversal alerts: (17), of interest based on sales and earnings acceleration:

• HCP has low double-digit sales growth, a P/E falling from 43 to 27, and a 5.2% yield.
• MEE has double-digit sales growth, is shedding four quarters of losses  with a forward P/E of 67. Earnings estimates have been revised downward somewhat.
• MINI's price has been pushed down but sales are holding up and earnings are about to move up and drop the P/E from 62 to 45. Earnings estimates have been revised downward.
• PRSP's sales are down slightly YoY but earnings are holding with estimates revised upward, holding a P/E of around 15, and a 1.6% yield.

More Pain

DNS -47, -46, -8. A few meager gains don't make up for the many that got hammered today.

Trades: none.

Reversal alerts: (26). Some of the charts are okay but nothing has the fundamentals to warrant a listing. Besides, I'd probably buy them ... and we all know how that's been going.

Watchlist Perfomance

Here is a link to my watchlist performance chart sorted by performance for the month. All of the yellow cells are for gains that went negative yesterday. Lots of red at the bottom.

The image to the right links to a snapshot of my distribution days page. There are usually one or two stocks with 5 distribution days (over the last 10 trading days) and no 6s or 7s. The chart is definitely flagging caution if not a warning. The percentages in the right column are the 2-week and 4-week price performance. Red is decelerating, orange declining, blue rising, and yellow shifting from a positive to a negative trend.

Weekly Performance Chart

t2 chart script weekly performance

It feels worse than it looks.

I Hope This is a Good Time to Buy

... because it stinks otherwise. DNS -100, -35, -11.

Thursday trades (Blogger down):

I sold my May ENTR calls since it seemed to be slipping (+31.1%).

Friday Trades:

TNE hit the TSL and sold (-5.72%). I was almost ready to call a bottom on it. Not now.

Value-sales portfolio, +45.7%

I bought shares of Thursday reversal alerts HCN and EM, plus STWD and VSH for smaller accounts.

I bought June calls for HCN and FMCN.

The value-sales port closed the week at +45.7%.

Reversal alerts: (55) filtered for earnings growth down to PLCM, CIR, and PTEN.

Bracing for Next Week

Two up days can't make up for last week and today. I held onto most of my options and even bought rebound candidates ... and now I'm going to get punished for it. Next week's expiration Friday is coming way too fast. DNS -130, -27, -15.

STWD took a dilution hit. Maybe it will rebound like ARR did. It didn't hurt that ARR has continued to show a 19% dividend.

Trades:

Shares of FMCN were sold when the trailing stop loss order triggered (+5.44%).

I bought call options on the falling knife that is STEC. I thought -18+% was safe enough. I thought wrong.

Reversal alerts: (3). Of interest: PRIM with a forward P/E of 12, strong sales and modest earnings growth with upwardly revised estimates.

That Makes Two

DNS +76, +29, +11.

Holdings SPRD and FMCN took a hit but PTIE, TAL, and VSH made nice rebounds and most everything else finished up for the day. I wish I'd rolled back into TTMI and HAYN, but it's been a very unpredictable market lately.

Trades: none.

Reversal alerts: (40), filtered for strong earnings growth: CIR STLD CLMT FSC & LOCM.

Up for a Change

DNS +46, +16, +6.

Trades:

I picked up some PTEN call options and underbid RBCN.

Reversal alerts: (18), Of interest, GRS and BEXP.

What?

I'm looking at my Fidelity watchlist that is mostly up - except my favs. You know, the ones that beat estimates. Hammered for 6% or more were SPRD, TMH, GLBL, TTMI, RBCN, and UTSI. Throw MNTA in there too, down 4.5%. Up 6% or more were APP, HAYN, PWER, TSU, and CF. DNS +55, +13, +5.

Trades:

Value-sales port, +47.6%

The trailing stop loss order sold the TMH shares (+8.99%).

I tried to pick up a little SLV but missed.

The value-sales port declined this week, now at +47.55%.

Reversal alerts: (39) of which CEVA, NBR, AMTD and HP are the most interesting.

Tough Sledding

DNS-139, -13.5, -12. Down between 22 and 12% were SMSI, APP, UDRL, GLBL, and SLV. Up 6%  or more - ERTS and JDSU.

Trades:

CVX hit its stop loss (-7.29%).

EXM isn't going to cut it, so those options were sold (-20.9%).

I bought shares of TNE, and shares of ARR for a small account.

I bought May call options for SPRD in case they beat estimates after the close. They did (as did RBCN).

Reversal alerts: (17). CHS CMG CVI DUSA OME and UA look like decent charts. Gotta run, so no fundamental filtering.

Up Big, Down Big, or Somewhere In Between

DNS -84, -13, -9. Watch list stocks up 8% or more: VSEA, TMH, SIGA, and GTLS. Down 8% or more: BEXP, NOK, APP, and MCP. VSEA was the winner with a 51% gain as AMAT acquires them.

Trades:

Trailing stops for SSW (-1.37%) and PTEN (+3.14%) shares triggered.

Oddly enough, I was buying call options for PTEN and VSH. Hopefully these falling knives won't leave me too bloody.

Reversal alerts: none.

Bomb Shelter

Wow. I feel like taking cover after today. DNS 0, -22.5, -4.6. (21) watchlist stocks were down 5% or more. Those down 6% or more were LOCM, ANAD, UDRL, VSH, NTES, PTIE, CVI, RES and SNDA. Up 5% or more were AEIS, MCP, FRPT and SKH.

Trades:

Trailing stop loss orders fired off for CF (-1.06%), CPX (+6.0%), and TTMI (+5.5%).

I bought call options for RBCN and VSH.

Reversal alerts: (1) VLCCF.

That Was Ugly

DNS -3, -9.5, -2. It doesn't sound bad but there lots of hits for 2, 3, and 4%. Watchlisters clobbered 5% or more were SLV, LOCM, CELL, SIGA, ANAD, WATG and HOV. Up 5% or more, OMN and FMCN.

I'm surprised trailing stop loss orders didn't start firing off. If we get another day or two like this, they will be.

Trades: none.

Reversal alerts: (7).

There's EXM which I'm already in.

For the contrarians  out there, there's Brazilian telecom TNE with negative analyst sentiment, with earning estimates adjusted down for the next two quarters, but recently revised upward for this year and next, yielding a forward P/E below 7. I do like the looks of the reversal pattern - I may invest based on the indicators alone.