Kind of a mixed day. DNS +97, -2, +1.
Trades:
My Jan $19 PTEN calls expired worthless, -100%.
Portfolios:
There was some improvement this week. The ESG port is at -9.05% with 14 of 37 positions above water. The value-sales port is at +9.65%.
Reversal alerts: (5).
The t2 script produced ABT, MMP, and PGN.
Saturday, January 21, 2012
Thursday, January 19, 2012
GOOG Down
9% after market. DNS +45, 19, +6.
UEPS was up another 11.3%,
Trades:
FMCN shares hit the trailing stop loss trigger, +3.4%.
I bought shares in BAS and ROSE, and Feb calls for BAS and RES.
I sold GTE calls in an untracked account.
My Jan PTEN calls need a miracle to expire ITM tomorrow.
Reversal alerts: (9).
By lowest forward P/E first: XCO, UPL, SFD, PKD, AIMC, CHG, and ANTI. A pretty good bunch, all but two came from the t2 script.
UEPS was up another 11.3%,
Trades:
FMCN shares hit the trailing stop loss trigger, +3.4%.
I bought shares in BAS and ROSE, and Feb calls for BAS and RES.
I sold GTE calls in an untracked account.
My Jan PTEN calls need a miracle to expire ITM tomorrow.
Reversal alerts: (9).
By lowest forward P/E first: XCO, UPL, SFD, PKD, AIMC, CHG, and ANTI. A pretty good bunch, all but two came from the t2 script.
Wednesday, January 18, 2012
Nice!
That's a solid "up" day. DNS +97, +42, +14.
Trades:
UEPS gapped up and was up around +28% and started trending down when I started selling. Calls +71.4%, stock +24.0%.
I'd been looking to sell my KOG Jan. calls ITM. Had to do an execute and sell, +2.0%.
That leaves me with stock in ARR, MSCC, FMCN, and KEG. Jan. calls for PTEN (OTM), and Feb. calls for GTE and KEG.
Reversal alerts: (16).
The less reliable HLR script produced seven alerts but only MCHX is of interest. If the numbers are correct, the sales and earnings growth looks phenomenal. The chart is abysmal. Institutional trading is strongly biased to the sell side (hard for it to be otherwise with that chart). The value is reasonable with a forward P/E of 28.
The t2 script alerted on a number of MLPs (with the best charts and reversal patterns) and my UEPS. By lowest forward P/E first: WTI (great growth, flat chart), AAN, EEQ, ENB, & KMR.
Trades:
UEPS gapped up and was up around +28% and started trending down when I started selling. Calls +71.4%, stock +24.0%.
I'd been looking to sell my KOG Jan. calls ITM. Had to do an execute and sell, +2.0%.
That leaves me with stock in ARR, MSCC, FMCN, and KEG. Jan. calls for PTEN (OTM), and Feb. calls for GTE and KEG.
Reversal alerts: (16).
The less reliable HLR script produced seven alerts but only MCHX is of interest. If the numbers are correct, the sales and earnings growth looks phenomenal. The chart is abysmal. Institutional trading is strongly biased to the sell side (hard for it to be otherwise with that chart). The value is reasonable with a forward P/E of 28.
The t2 script alerted on a number of MLPs (with the best charts and reversal patterns) and my UEPS. By lowest forward P/E first: WTI (great growth, flat chart), AAN, EEQ, ENB, & KMR.
Why So Much Red?
... when the indexes are up? DNS +60, +17, +5.
ENER was at it again, up 45.2%.
Trades:
OAS was up 8%, so I tried selling ITM calls for a spread conversion. No takers. I couldn't get any time value for my calls either, so I did an "execute and sell". +92.3%.
Reversal alerts: (6).
First off, the t2 script alerted on KMB and LEG. Both have recent YoY quarterly sales growth around 8%. The forward P/Es are 15.8 and 18.2 respectively with dividend yields of 3.85 and 4.98%.
The HLR script alerted on ED, DUK, ANGO, and RGS. Most pay dividends.
ENER was at it again, up 45.2%.
Trades:
OAS was up 8%, so I tried selling ITM calls for a spread conversion. No takers. I couldn't get any time value for my calls either, so I did an "execute and sell". +92.3%.
Reversal alerts: (6).
First off, the t2 script alerted on KMB and LEG. Both have recent YoY quarterly sales growth around 8%. The forward P/Es are 15.8 and 18.2 respectively with dividend yields of 3.85 and 4.98%.
The HLR script alerted on ED, DUK, ANGO, and RGS. Most pay dividends.
Friday, January 13, 2012
Down But Up?
The indexes finished up for the week despite today's broad sell-off. DNS -49, -14, -6.
Penny stock ENER is up 326% over the last two weeks; up 63% just today. MY, ZAGG, and SMSI were up between 10 and 20% today.
Trades: none.
So far most of my buys were premature - I could have gotten better entry points on most of them. I decided to pause and wait and see if the market firms up.
Portfolios:
The ESG port is at -11.6 and the value-sales port is at +3.2%. Even the oil port lost 6 or 7 percentage points this week. I was thinking the ESG port might finally break into positive territory this week, but then the rest of the week happened.
Reversal alerts: (2).
IART and FRED. Neither is very interesting.
Penny stock ENER is up 326% over the last two weeks; up 63% just today. MY, ZAGG, and SMSI were up between 10 and 20% today.
Trades: none.
So far most of my buys were premature - I could have gotten better entry points on most of them. I decided to pause and wait and see if the market firms up.
Portfolios:
The ESG port is at -11.6 and the value-sales port is at +3.2%. Even the oil port lost 6 or 7 percentage points this week. I was thinking the ESG port might finally break into positive territory this week, but then the rest of the week happened.
Reversal alerts: (2).
IART and FRED. Neither is very interesting.
Thursday, January 12, 2012
Oil, Ouch
Why is my part of the watchlist red? DNS +22, +14, +3.
MCP had a decent day.
Oil dropped a bit and took down many of my holdings, PTEN (-6.4%), KEG, OAS, and KOG. Bummer.
Trades:
UEPS seemed to be forming a bottom, at least until I bought shares in it. It has some compelling growth numbers if the estimates hold.
Being one to buy on weakness when I think the market is trending up, I bought calls in KEG and UEPS, and added onto my January PTEN calls. Even after yeseterday's slide, PTEN continued to drift down. That one might leave a mark.
When SPRD moved up yesterday I put a 3% trailing stop under it. No way was I going to take a loss at the risk of not maximizing profit. It sold this morning before moving lower; +4.6%, held two days.
Reversal alerts: (4).
TRCR has 30 and 40% YoY quarterly sales growth but is pretty beat up. CL is moving to around 10% sales growth but has a great reversal pattern. However, neither has much earnings growth and are showing a P/E of 18 to 17 over the next two quarters.
MCP had a decent day.
Oil dropped a bit and took down many of my holdings, PTEN (-6.4%), KEG, OAS, and KOG. Bummer.
Trades:
UEPS seemed to be forming a bottom, at least until I bought shares in it. It has some compelling growth numbers if the estimates hold.
Being one to buy on weakness when I think the market is trending up, I bought calls in KEG and UEPS, and added onto my January PTEN calls. Even after yeseterday's slide, PTEN continued to drift down. That one might leave a mark.
When SPRD moved up yesterday I put a 3% trailing stop under it. No way was I going to take a loss at the risk of not maximizing profit. It sold this morning before moving lower; +4.6%, held two days.
Reversal alerts: (4).
TRCR has 30 and 40% YoY quarterly sales growth but is pretty beat up. CL is moving to around 10% sales growth but has a great reversal pattern. However, neither has much earnings growth and are showing a P/E of 18 to 17 over the next two quarters.
Wednesday, January 11, 2012
Solar Flares
Today was mixed unless you held solar stocks. DNS -13, +8, 0.
Solar stocks boomed. From the watchlist: ENER, JASO (+34.7%), JKS, WFR, YGE, and PWER (+17%).
SUMR tanked 21.8% today.
Trades:
I picked up some Feb. PTEN calls.
Reversal alerts: (8).
A pretty sad lot all-in-all. [Any club that would have UAL and WBMD as members ...]
TYPE has modest growth, BGS is about the same, and SPSC is just plain expensive.
Solar stocks boomed. From the watchlist: ENER, JASO (+34.7%), JKS, WFR, YGE, and PWER (+17%).
SUMR tanked 21.8% today.
Trades:
I picked up some Feb. PTEN calls.
Reversal alerts: (8).
A pretty sad lot all-in-all. [Any club that would have UAL and WBMD as members ...]
TYPE has modest growth, BGS is about the same, and SPSC is just plain expensive.
Tuesday, January 10, 2012
Buying
Today's action was encouraging. DNS +70, +26, +11.
LULU and VDSI had nice gains even after LULU gave some back.
Trades:
One minute I say I'm staying away from oil and Chinese stocks. The next I'm buying shares of KEG, SPRD, and FMCN, and Feb calls for GTE. So much for that plan.
I also added more shares of REIT ARR, and bought shares of semi MSCC.
Reversal alerts: (11).
I was thinking that it would be nice for this market to level out to a modest uptrend and start alerting on some quality stocks with good reversal patterns. Well we're not there yet but it was nice to see FMCN and SPRD pop up in the t2 alerts after buying them today.
Lowest forward P/E first: SPRD, ANH (good pattern and 14.97% dividend yield), FMCN, ESV (fourth try), NAVG, and ATRO. The last two are weak in the growth department but have a decent reversal pattern and are reversing in the context of a larger uptrend.
LULU and VDSI had nice gains even after LULU gave some back.
Trades:
One minute I say I'm staying away from oil and Chinese stocks. The next I'm buying shares of KEG, SPRD, and FMCN, and Feb calls for GTE. So much for that plan.
I also added more shares of REIT ARR, and bought shares of semi MSCC.
Reversal alerts: (11).
I was thinking that it would be nice for this market to level out to a modest uptrend and start alerting on some quality stocks with good reversal patterns. Well we're not there yet but it was nice to see FMCN and SPRD pop up in the t2 alerts after buying them today.
Lowest forward P/E first: SPRD, ANH (good pattern and 14.97% dividend yield), FMCN, ESV (fourth try), NAVG, and ATRO. The last two are weak in the growth department but have a decent reversal pattern and are reversing in the context of a larger uptrend.
Monday, January 9, 2012
Buy or Sell?
There seems to be an air of cautious optimism that would lead me to say "Buy", but cautiously. DNS +33, +2, +3.
Did I mention last week that you should have bought NFLX? It's up again today, 13.8%. Yep, you should have bought NFLX ... or CAAS ... or HOV.
Trades:
Rather than wait for more bad news to hit MCP, I sold my January calls while there was some time value left, +8.95%.
I also sold my January CDE calls, +5.4%.
Rather than hope these mediocre trades can hold their relative highs, I decided to just sell them and be happy with the gains and better prospects of my KOG and OAS calls (both January).
Reversal alerts: (4), all too marginal to bother with.
Did I mention last week that you should have bought NFLX? It's up again today, 13.8%. Yep, you should have bought NFLX ... or CAAS ... or HOV.
Trades:
Rather than wait for more bad news to hit MCP, I sold my January calls while there was some time value left, +8.95%.
I also sold my January CDE calls, +5.4%.
Rather than hope these mediocre trades can hold their relative highs, I decided to just sell them and be happy with the gains and better prospects of my KOG and OAS calls (both January).
Reversal alerts: (4), all too marginal to bother with.
Friday, January 6, 2012
They All Went Up
The three indexes held onto Tuesday's gain and closed up for the abbreviated week. DNS -56, +4, 3.
SPRD dropped over 22% today.
Trades: none.
Portfolios:
The ESG port is at -13.32% with 9 stocks above water. The value-sales port is at +2.08%.
Reversal alerts: (5).
TSCO is the only candidate here, but the reversal pattern isn't very compelling.
SPRD dropped over 22% today.
Trades: none.
Portfolios:
The ESG port is at -13.32% with 9 stocks above water. The value-sales port is at +2.08%.
Reversal alerts: (5).
TSCO is the only candidate here, but the reversal pattern isn't very compelling.
Thursday, January 5, 2012
Rally To Flat
DNS -3, +22, +4.
My CDE pulled into the black today. OAS and KOG are well ITM, that just leaves MCP to rebound into the black.
With oil over $100, I can't get too excited over oil stocks that have already had a good run. Other than that, I don't see much direction.
In the "Paid to Wait" department, I'm happy with the incremental gains of ARR, and even happier with the monthly dividend (currently 18.46% annual yield).
Trades: none.
Reversal alerts: (2), junk.
My CDE pulled into the black today. OAS and KOG are well ITM, that just leaves MCP to rebound into the black.
With oil over $100, I can't get too excited over oil stocks that have already had a good run. Other than that, I don't see much direction.
In the "Paid to Wait" department, I'm happy with the incremental gains of ARR, and even happier with the monthly dividend (currently 18.46% annual yield).
Trades: none.
Reversal alerts: (2), junk.
Wednesday, January 4, 2012
Up Again, Sort Of
Tuesday, January 3, 2012
Fresh Start
Today's buying started the new trading year off with a nice rally. DNS +180, +44, +19.
The oil drillers did well today, particularly RES, up 12.4%. All 11 stocks the oil tracking portfolio (started Nov 4 2011, +7.78%) were up.
A few shippers were up well for the day: EXM, FREE, TNP, and DRYS.
Trades: none.
Reversal alerts: (9).
COOL, ROG, TZOO, and LOGM make the cut.
The oil drillers did well today, particularly RES, up 12.4%. All 11 stocks the oil tracking portfolio (started Nov 4 2011, +7.78%) were up.
A few shippers were up well for the day: EXM, FREE, TNP, and DRYS.
Trades: none.
Reversal alerts: (9).
COOL, ROG, TZOO, and LOGM make the cut.
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