Good Week

DNS +47, +1, +3. The broad indexes are moving up in a steady fashion and almost all of my positions are up over the past week or two.

Alternate energy stocks JKS, JASO and YGE have been coming back. Throw PWER in there too.

Trades:

Snug 5% trailing stop loss orders triggered on MNTA (+30.4%) and TAL (-0.3%) today.

A TSL order on SLV call options triggered too, +13.5%.

Value-sales port, +52.7%

I bought TAL call options when I left a limit buy order in place in case TAL dipped. It sure did and I should have bid lower. Oh well, I'll sit on it a few days and see what happens.

The value-sales port is now up +52.7%.

Reversal alerts: (4), junk.

Just the DJIA

DNS +72, +3, +5.

Trades: none.

It's good to see recent purchases PTIE and TAL moving up. Even GTLS, JKS and SCCS have signs of life.

Reversal alerts: (3) - CRM would be the pick here.

Shippers

I should clarify that my move into EXM was based in part on the recent moves by DRYS, FRO, NAT, PRGN, SSW and TNP. FREE is the only one (in my watch list) not participating.

VectorVest only rates 4 of 51 such companies as Buys: GLNG, ALEX, KSP (merging), and SSW.

I just want to be in there if these guys break out because they can run up very fast. Some help from the BDI would be nice.

Not A Bad Day

DNS +96, +22, +8. MIPS took a 24% hit so so much for that rebound. NCTY, JDAS, and SIMG were up over 12% for the day. SLV came back.

Trades:

The 5% trailing stop on called TTMI shares triggered and sold 'em. TTMI's run improved my return at expiration on the 15th from 49% to +94.3%.

I bought call options on shipper EXM which alerted the other day. My sheet showed a P/E of 1.2 but now I see Yahoo's estimates are showing losses after being revised sharply downward. Oops. Let's hope for a good earnings report on the 2nd and a decent bounce. It's so unlike me to buy something for the trade.

I bought WLL call options expecting good results this evening. Oops. Bought strictly for the trade.

I bought PTIE call options since it confirmed the reversal yesterday and I've been diversifying into health care.

Reversal alerts: (3). BRO maybe.

Don't Disappoint

... or guide down. DNS +115.5, +22, +12. UA, NFLX, VDSI, FTO, and CVI dropped 5% or more today.

Trades:

I bought call options and shares of TEO which took the day off. Doesn't it know it's supposed to be up 20% by now?

CVI tripped its 7% trailing stop loss (-3.99%).

Reversal alerts: (24), but what a bunch of junk. Nothing I can even repeat in good conscience.

Pffft

Yep, that pretty much sums it up. DNS -26, +6, -2. I'm happy with my positions in TTMI, ARUN, MNTA and SSW today. APP went nuts.

Trades:

VECO was down on speculation that its earning would come in low given some issues in Japan. I sold it near the high today (+11.1%). Hey look! They reported and it's up 4% after hours. Grrr.

I bought call options in CVI and RBCN. I won't be tracking RBCN's performance in that account.

Reversal alerts: (22). There are only two that look interesting here. TEO is showing good growth with rising estimates and has a 7.1% yield, but is subject to sharp sell offs. PTIE is showing strong earnings and sales estimates for next year.

Revised Earnings Estimates

Within the last week:
 Up: AMP CPX CVI CVX MNTA PTEN STEC  WLL
 Down: ENTR JKS TTMI VECO
 Mixed: CF TAL

Within the last 30 days:
 Up: RBCN V
 Down: SSW

Source: Yahoo Finance

Earnings Reports This Week

Monday: CAT CVX NFLX VECO

Tuesday: ENTR

Wednesday: RES WLL

Thursday: PTEN TAL

Friday: BEXP GTLS

Screen

Here's a screen:

• 50% yearly earnings growth estimated over the next two quarters
• 4 quarters or more of accelerated earnings and/or sales growth
• 4 quarters or more of sequential sales growth
• sorted by forward P/E, descending

Below the table are histograms for each of the fields.

WL Sim

Here's a Wealth Lab Simulation of the "t2" script for the last 160 trading days (~8 months). The Nasdaq bottomed about 163 trading days ago according to StockCharts so I'm not sure why Buy-and-Hold took such a hit at the start. BnH had a better slope (i.e. gain) at times and held up better through the draw-down periods. Anyway, for your amusement ...

Weekly Performance

Equity Curve

Simulation Performance

What If?

... I'd bought these a year ago?

Current Holdings

(SCCO and STWD are missing because of Reuters insists on polluting their database by adding exchange suffixes to new and changed symbols.)

Up is Up

Good earnings are moving the indexes up. DNS +52, +18, +7.

Trades:

Value-sales port, +46.8%

I bought CF shares for a small account.

I bought SLV call options.

The value-sales portfolio is up 46.8%.

Reversal alerts: (54) filtered for growth down to PHH AEL MFLX SID & ZEUS.

Happy Dance

DNS +187, +58, +18. Other than having just sold VSEA (up 6.8% today) and APH (up 6.5%), it's hard to find fault with a day like today.

This morning I was reviewing alerts and my positions in Wealth Lab Developer Pro and liked the indicators on GLTS (alerted yesterday), SSW (alerted today) and TTMI. I put in a limit order for GTLS and missed it when it gapped up way over my well over the close limit price. I already have call options on GTLS (up 5.9% today).

Trades:

I bought SSW shares and call options. Up 3.4% today.

I bought TTMI shares. My called TTMI shares are still open. Up 5.7% today.

Reversal alerts: (125). Filtered for 50% yearly earnings growth and sequential sales growth, not for P/E or chart patterns. In order by descending forward P/E: SNCR EPAY GFI CVGI DMND JDAS SWC KELYA DAR FMLX AA MIC & ASIA.

The Strong Get Stronger

A modest day with DNS +65, +10, +7.5 sent APP, RES, WATG, ENTR, UA and RBN up 5% or more.

Positions up 10% or more in the last week include ENTR, FMCN, ARUN, MNTA, CPX, and PTEN. Other watchlist stocks up the same amount include APP, SNDA, RES, UDRL, LULU, WATG and SPRD.

Trades:

APH hit its trailing stop selling the call options (-13.9%).

ARR shares were bought for a small account.

Reversal alerts: (83). Those expected to grow yearly earnings by 50% in the next two quarters with sequential sales growth are (in order of lowest forward P/E): AEL, OVTI, DAR, JDAS, TEN and GTLS. If I remove the sales constraint, we pick up CF and SID. BEXP also shows up but with a high forward P/E of 53.

Wake Up Call

Standard & Poor's cut the U.S. debt outlook. Now maybe someone will do something before out nation's economy becomes the equivalent of a defaulted no-docs mortgage. DNS -140, -29, -15.

 Watchlist highlights were SNDA (+17%), APP & SPRD.

Trades:

RES hit its trailing stop before rebounding (-9.0%). It's finally recovering a bit so I would have rather not sold. But I picked a bad entry point and it wasn't supposed to get this low, but it did and now it's gone ... that's the rule.

TAL got bought because I still had a limit order hanging out there. I wasn't in a buying mood but I'm up for the day so I'll just put in the TSL order and hope for the best.

Call options were sold for JDSU (-31.7%), RBN (-39.8), and VSEA (-23.6%) [TSL], and spread STEC (-54.66%) which was trading below the long call.

I'm retrenching and raising cash because there's been way too much red on these pages lately.

Reversal alerts: (8), t2: FCFS & SWN, hlr: ANR & MEE are sporting the best reversal patterns. ANR and FCFS have the best fundamentals.

Wow!

It wasn't a monster day, but it hit me really well. Only four positions were down (fractionally), and a few jumped nicely. DNS +57, +4, +5.

If you didn't own GOOG you're probably up for the day. Topping of the list: APP, MNTA, RBCN, and ATI. My CVI, SSW, and STEC did well too.

Trades:

I had a limit sell on the ANR call spread as I expected it to continue to the down side. It filled. (-72.0%) Not only was it well in the money two weeks ago, it rallied 3.1% today and would have closed with only a 30% loss.

The TSL order for MENT calls filled (-23.9%).

The following call spreads expired: HAYN (+100.0%), SSW (+77.8%), MNTA (+31.1%), VSH (+6.5%), and TTMI (+49.0%). [Updated]. I'll have to sell called TMMI shares to close that position.

Options expiring worthless: covered calls for VECO (+100%) and protective puts for SPRD (-100%) for a net gain.

Value-sales portfolio, +43.9%

The value-sales port is at +43.9%.

Reversal alerts: (105) filtered down to HAIN, KLAC, PCAR, MENT, CFX and EPAY

Buy, Sell, Hold, or Jump?

That vexing question sums up my frustration with this market. DNS +14, -1, 0.

Watchlist gainers (5%+) UDRL, RBCN, and ENTR. Honerable mention, MCP, FMCN, and PTEN. I don't get MCP. I'm not sure why it took me so long to get back into FMCN. Losers: PAAS and GTLS.

I put in a bid for RBCN. Missed ... not going to chase. Up 6.6%. Doah!

PAAS fell 9% on mine nationalization rumors. That probably didn't help SCCO.

If you picked  up COOL on yesterday's alert, congrats on the 13% pop.

Trades:

My BEXP spread went OTM and came back a bit. I sold it at a premium over intrinsic value to recoup some of my money (-70%). One week you're looking at a 75% gain, and a 70% loss the next. Expiration week can be a, uh, pain.

SCCO triggered trailing stop loss orders. Shares were sold in two accounts (-9.1% & -9.9%). Nice chart, eh?

SCHN call options hit their trailing stop (-46.7%). 0 for 2 in steel and copper.

Reversal alerts: (15) filtered to RBN, HITT, NEWP, CBOE & BRNC. I like ENTR's numbers here, but it keeps finding the bottom.

Moderating

The market is still opening strong and closing lower, but at least a few stocks recovered somewhat. DNS +7, +17, 0. Watchlist members up 5% or more today were RVBD, ARUN, SPRD, FTO, ENER, CVI, WATG and AEA.

Trades:

I goofed and made a big trade for TAL in a small account that pegged the margin meter. I sold for a few cents more when I realized where the shares landed (+0.12%). I'll try again with TAL.

When PTEN started to fade I sold the April spread. +18.7%

I bought shares in TMH.

Reversal alerts: (45). Look at COOL, TRMB, EOG and VLO. 50% growth two quarters out, decent charts.

Brutal

I went into this week expecting some improvement. Boy was I wrong. My energy stocks got hammered (again) today. My winners, all two of them, were up less than 1%. DNS -118, -27, -10.

I'm trying to hang tight here and not lock in my losses just before the markets rebound. The other option is to throw in the towel and try to position my portfolio for a good run a little later. I think the forthcoming earnings reports and forward guidance will determine the action to take.

Some medical stocks are doing okay ... MNTA & LH. SKH topped my watchlist.

Trades:

Trailing stop loss orders fired off for RBCN (-2.45%) and WLL (-1.04%).

I sold the PTEN and XLE May calls in a small account.

Reversal alerts: (6) - all bottom bouncers.

Wrong Way

I went buying today ... unfortunately before everything went down. DNS +1, -9, -4. GTLS, STEC, BEXP and TTMI went down over 4%. April spreads ANR and BEXP are now in jeopardy. Obviously not a good day. BIIB, MCP and UDRL were up over 6%.

Trades:

ANR triggered its trailing stop loss order (+0.42%).

I bought
stocks: CPX, CVI, CVX, FMCN and V.
call options: FMCN, MENT, and V.

Reversal alerts: (5). ARUN was the pick here with indicators and fundamentals.

Call Spreads Rule

I only say that because in most cases my profit per share increases as does my percentage gain while reducing my investment and break-even point.

Obviously there's an element of timing. I sold the HAYN $50 at a good time which has more than repaired that trade. It appears that I sold the SSW too early and too low (strike-wise), though that doesn't take into account that over 80% of my investment was removed from the trade and I still doubled up what was left. I think the VSH call was at a loss when I converted it to a spread with a so-so (but positive) return.

                                                                                                                                                                                                               

Spread	Stock Price	Net / Share		Gain
		Call	Spread	Call	Spread
HAYN 45 / 50	$51.26	-$0.34	$2.70	-5.2%	117.4%
MNTA 13 / 15	$15.26	$0.36	$0.55	19.0%	37.9%
PTEN 23 / 29	$29.23	$1.03	$1.65	19.8%	37.9%
SSW 10 / 12.50	$19.13	$2.73	$1.30	42.7%	108.3%
TTMI 12.50 / 17.50	$18.05	$0.85	$2.15	18.1%	75.4%
VSH 10 / 17.5	$17.91	$0.31	$0.70	4.1%	10.3%

Rough Week

... in case there was any doubt. Let's hope next week is kinder as we go into expiration.

I have eight bull call spreads that expire next Friday. All are ITM, most are set to close at full value. Knock on wood!

Dive! Dive!

The markets started well. That was the end of the good news. DNS -29, -16, -5.

Watchlisters up 5% or more: CAAS (+32.6%!), PAAS, TRLG, WATG, PLAB & COCO.

Those down 5% or more: YONG, ARR (-6.5%), RBCN (-6%), HNR & SIMG.

Trades:

I bought shares for two accounts and a call spread for SCCO based on its numbers and the recent performance of VALE and PAAS. I should have picked up some PAAS too! (+8.4%)

I experimented this week with weekly options. Monday I bought a call spread for today's expiration on CAT ... 9 cents in the money. Note that CAT went up for four straight weeks. Let's just say that it didn't make it to five weeks (-100%). Sigh.

Value-sales port, +45.7%

The value-sales portfolio gave up a small bit of ground, back to +45.7%.

Reversal alerts: (4). Such wonderful names as ALTI GIS SORL and TM. Pass.

SCCO

I like the valuation and growth of SCCO here. The earnings estimates have been revised down a bit. Volatility is down so I can buy more time, which judging by the chart, I may need.

Earnings Growth
0.09	0.45	400.0%
0.21	0.37	76.2%
0.37	0.43	16.2%
0.43	0.58	34.9%
Estimated Growth
0.45	0.79	74.4%
0.37	0.88	137.8%

ARR Secondary

ARR will be selling 16M shares with only about 32M shares currently outstanding. This will reduce the share price and dividend yield (assuming the price doesn't fall 33%).

My timing is impeccable! :-(

Simmering Down

The downward pressure continues. We'll see who the real leader are. DNS -17, -4, -2.

HNR and SPRD took the lead today, SSW and VSEA gave some back.

Trades: I bought more shares of ARR, a strong performing REIT with an 18.8% yield.

Reversal alerts: (2) - junk.

Looks are Deceiving

With DNS +33, +9, +3, it looks like you might be up for the day. I sure wasn't.

DRYS & CSCO were up 4.9% or more. Energy stocks BEXP FTO ANR RES GLBL HNR WLL BHI & PTEN took a hit. I own five of those. :-(

Trades:

As mentioned below, I sold the CF call spread before it went negative and I had to go into "hope and pray" mode. +3.77%

PLAB shares hit the 8% trailing stop loss trigger, so gone! +7.65%

As mentioned, I bought JDSU and APH call options. I liked it better when JDSU was up 5%.

Reversal alerts: (1) - junk.

+JDSU -CF

I liked JDSU's base and it was bid up pre-market. I bought more May $15 calls at the open, more than doubling my position. It's up around 4% now - a 15/20 spread could yield over $1.50/share.

CF dropped and I didn't want it to get me again this month with a last minute drop for a loss. April call spread sold (+).

Added APH calls.

Mixed Bag

DNS -6, +2, 0. Watch list members with 5% gains or better: SMTC CIEN & KGC.

Trades:

I sold my April RBCN calls (+19.56%) and May WTW calls (+105.4%).

I bought SCHN calls. Oops.

All of my April calls have been sold or converted to call spreads. I've been taking a bit of a defensive posture here, selling marginally profitable positions coming to expiration and bottle rockets that could sputter out and take a quick dive due to profit takers. My call spreads are typically well in the money.

Reversal alerts: (3) - only SJT is worth mentioning.

Flat Day

DNS +23, 0, 0.

RES recovered some more, PLAB drifted down all day. SKH, WIRE, SSW, UTSI, RES, and TTMI gained 4% or more.

Trades:

I like SSW but it has run a little too far a little too fast for me to be comfortable with. I sold my remaining calls and got out at least 100% too soon. +497%

I converted my TTMI calls to a call spread.

I bought call spreads for CAT (Friday) and STEC (May).

Reversal alerts: RSO, ugh.

The Giveback

DNS +57, +9, +7 sounds decent enough, but you probably lost money today.

UTSI, LOCM & UA did well. JDSU, RVBD, RBN, AMED, RES & ENTR did not.

Trades:

RBN hit its 7% trailing stop loss. -2.4%

Value-sales port, +47.6%

I converted marginal April VSH calls to call spreads, and bought April CF call spreads.

I bought May calls for GTLS, JDSU & PTEN.

The value-sales portfolio moved up again this week, now +47.6%.

Reversal alerts: UMBF, WBMD & CRME.