Bargain Hunting

The bargain hunters lost out to the folks that didn't want to hold anything over the weekend. DNS -241, -65, -29.

Trades:

I was in the first camp. I picked up some CF shares. $20 ITM Jan call options had a 33% time premium, so I wasn't buying any calls!

A low-ball limit order for FMCN call options filled in the last hour.

My theory is that the markets are alternating weekly. This week has been particularly harsh so I have to think next week will give us some relief. I won't say CF and FMCN can't go any lower because we all know that isn't true (or we should by now).

I tried to pick up some SPRD calls, but it got away. SPRD was the best performer on my watchlist today. Oddly enough, CF and FMCN were the worst.

Portfolios:

Down again - ESG port at -27.5%, value-sales port at -6.25%.

Reversal alerts: (31).

I'll go through these later. HOTT has the only chart that has held up reasonably well.

Update:

CISG and NEWP have four quarters of double digit sales growth, forward P/E of 6 and 6.4 respectively.

ESFC, PKOH, PBH, RUSHA,CVS, ROG, TPX, SPPI, MCP, and ADVS all have redeeming qualities in terms of sales and/or earnings growth.

RUSHA is hitting new levels of sales and earnings with its P/E dropping from 14.8 to 11.2.

TPX earnings and sales are still growing sequentially with the two MRQs showing accelerating sales growth and its P/E falling from 19.3 to 16.8.

SPPI has four quarters of triple digit sales growth (269% MRQ), erratic earnings, and a P/E falling from 21.8 to 17.11.

MCP has crushing numbers (high triple digit growth all around) but some feel the numbers may be suspect (i.e., too good to be true).

Pessimism Rewarded

Today's top gainers from my watchlist: AMED, OMN, LOCM, CRZO, SIGA, and ENTR. Not terribly obvious picks, eh? DNS +143, -11, +9.

Trades:

LVS has been losing ground, and the robust open was turning tail when I sold the call options.

Seller's Remorse:

Here's the section where I complain about selling my NFLX and SPRD puts too early. NFLX was down 11% today, hitting new 52-week lows. SPRD was down 11% as well.

I was bullish on FMCN. It dropped 18.2% today. I've not yet found any news to explain the drop.

Reversal alerts: (14).

Hmm, CRZO and LOCM from above showed up in the hlr script output.

 Lots of financials in this group, but all have some sales or earnings growth. Lowest forward P/E first:

THN - no estimates, just double digit sales growth, EPS growth has decelerated from 119% to 78%, and a P/E around 12.1.

Then PTEN, WCBO, MTZ, BXS, CRZO, and TBBK.

Same Ol' Same Ol'

Just plain boring now. DNS -180, -55, -24.

Trades:

I sold my GLD shares before the trailing stop triggered lower (which it would have).

I closed out the calls on CPX, SMS, and FHN, and the puts on TM.

I bought more NLY.

Reversal alerts: (4).

The t2 script came up with SIGA which I'd toss. The hlr script came up with RRST, PLCM, and NFLX, all of which have good numbers and are pretty beaten up.

Moving Target

Wow. Stocks are bouncing all over the place. DNS +147, +30, +12. It's great that the markets are trading higher, but can you trust them not to be down 3% tomorrow (or any other day)? I wish I could.

Trades:

I closed out my SPRD puts. This is one stock I don't want to be short on when the market rallies.

UNTK rose 15% on an upgrade not so long after the reversal alert. I'm sure glad there's no such thing as insider trading.

Reversal alerts: (23).

Of interest (lowest forward P/E first): HMX, RPC, CBT, AF (6.4% yield), LAYN, CEP (shedding losses), HL, NCIT, BOOM, and PDC. Just watchlist these and see who crawls out of the wreckage that is their charts.

HL is a miner with double digit sales growth, triple digit earnings growth, and a P/E falling from 21 to 10, positive analyst opinions and estimates trending upward.

Trading on Hope

This market crashes in fear one minute, rallies big on hope the next. It's hard to apply rational decisions to an irrational market. DNS +272, +33, +27.

Trades: none.

I put the trailing stop order on the GLD ... it held.

Reversal alerts: (9).

ARR got some traction again (maybe), and sports a 19.6% annual yield, paid monthly.

MPR makes a showing with double digit earnings growth projected for the next two quarters. decent sales grow, and a P/E falling from 20.5 to 16.6.

AKRX

AKRX's chart has been bucking the trend since Feb.

EPS Growth
Prev Yr	Past Yr	Growth	P/E
-0.06	0.04	166.7%	-
-0.03	0.25	933.3%	-
0.04	0.06	50.0%	-
-0.10	0.19	290.0%	18.0
Next Two Quarters (est)
0.04	0.07	62.5%	17.16
0.25	0.08	-70.0%	24.35

Sales Growth
Prev Yr	Last Yr	Growth
19.4	21.7	11.9%
18.2	24.0	31.9%
20.5	25.4	23.9%
20.2	32.1	58.9%

It's Only as Bad as It Looks

Wealth-Lab simulation results:

Monthly:

Weekly:

More Inflection Points Please

The DJIA didn't spend nearly enough time bobbing around the center line today. DNS +38, +28, +7.

Trades:

I bought SLV when it dropped 9% or more at the open. I followed up with a combo order - a stop loss and limit sell in case it rebounded more. The stop loss order kicked me out with a profit before SLV slid another 6% or so.

One of my limit buy orders for ARR caught.

Portfolios:

Both portfolios took a good hit this week (who didn't?). The ESG port is at -25.2% with only 2 of 37 stocks above water. The value-sales port went negative at -2.99%.

Reversal alerts: (27).

The t2 script generated 10 of these. I'll go through them more and update the post tomorrow (after my database is updated) but for now I see decent growth for CF, LAYN, DTLK, SOHU, EXPE, ANR, BOOM, CBD, and NFLX.

Update:

I ran the numbers and reviewed the estimates and came up with HXM, CF, LAYN, DTLK, EXPE, BOOM, ANR, NFLX, AVB, and BRE. See the tables.

First off, the charts on all of these are horrible. But analyst opinions are generally favorable and estimates are holding or even rising for these except ANR (down big), NFLX (down some, but probably not enough), and AVB (down slightly). AVB and BRE have a dividend yield around 3.6%. CF is my pick here.

Two More Shoes

DNS -391, -83, -37.

Trades:

I bought put options on TM and SPRD. I figure with a deepening recession, Fords and Chevys are cheaper than Toyota (and Lexus) and businesses still tend to by domestic brands. Their stocks also have a lower multiple.

With SPRD, a lot of people have made a nice profit, and won't want to lose it. Once the stock starts to slip, there will be a race for the door.

I had low-ball limit buy orders in for ARR, but the stock didn't spike down.

Reversal alerts: (2), JKS and NFLX. NFLX has a decent reversal pattern, but I'm not sure the negative sentiment has subsided. Someone will be buying at these levels though.

Another Shoe Drops

Not much enthusiasm for the Fed's plan I guess. DNS -284, -52, -35.

Trades: none.

Reversal alerts: (4), all on the HLR script, not the more reliable T2 script.

LIWA is a Chinese copper alloy wire producer with triple digit sales growth and strong double digit earnings growth and a P/E of 3.3 and falling. There's a recent Buy recommendation and generally rising estimates. Only one analyst is covering it. With this low a multiple, there is obviously some skepticism with regard to the numbers. Research it. SCCO for comparison has comparable earnings grow, weaker sales growth, and a forward P/E of 10.5.

Gessed Right?

Maybe I sold at the right time. We'll know before long. DNS +8, -23, -2.

Trades:

AAPL shares hit the trailing stop and sold.

I sold the last of the calls for MCP, PTEN, and JBHT.

That leaves me with GLD, ARR, and NLY shares.

I also have call options for CPX, LVS, PVH, FHN, and SMS. Not that I'm particularly bullish on these ... just that I haven't gotten the price I want.

Reversal alerts: (2), junk.

Tired of This Ride

That was a nice recovery. Too bad it had to tank first. DNS -108, -9, -12.

Watchlisters closing up 3% or more were CMG, LULU, GTLS, LVS, SPRD, RES, ZAGG, and FMCN.

Trades:

A bad open coupled with a bad attitude lead me to sell almost everything this morning. I just had a feeling that we were going to give back last week's gains over the course of this week (and next week, and the next week).

I sold all of my equity positions except AAPL, ARR, NLY, and GLD when tight trailing stop loss orders (based on Friday's close) triggered.

I sold most of my call options, including the big winners like SPRD and WPRT. ROSE, RES, CPX, MCP, PVH, and LVS weren't spared either.

Reversal alerts: (1), junk.

Up Every Day This Week

I would never have bet money on that. DNS +76, +15, +7.

Watchlisters catching my eye are AMZN, EBAY, and ATHN, particularly since they are positive for every performance period in my performance chart. Old fav FMCN has been coming back. The beatings continued for NFLX and the solar energy cos (JKS, YGE, & JASO).

Trades: No limit orders filled. Not chasing, especially after (5) up days.

I wish I'd waited 'til after Monday morning to close out some of my options, but I can honestly say I didn't see this week's gains coming.

Portfolios:

You'd probably guess that they improved and you'd be right. The ESG port has (5) stocks above water and improved to -14.56%. The value-sales port is up to +7.68% gain for a year and change.

I intended to retire the value-sales port soon after introducing the (37) stock ESG port, but the ESG port got clobbered right off the bat, and the value-sales port provided some continuity and a point of reference though the sell-off. The ESG port will be positive before you know it!

Reversal alerts: (5).

I like the reversal pattern for HURN, and the modest sales growth and P/E dropping from 32.6 to 18 don't hurt.

HMX has some growth, a bad chart, and a P/E dropping from 8 to 6.

CFX has better growth (YoY quarterly sales growth has accelerated to 52%), triple digit earning growth for this and the next two quarters and a P/E falling from 32.5 to 20.7.

Confidence Returns?

Another nice day from start to finish (mostly). DNS +186, +35, +20.

NFLX and ZAGG took a hit.

Trades: None of my limit order filled, so nothing new.

Reversal alerts: (23).

I see a lot of familiar names here: BKS, USG, YGE, JPM, JASO, CCM, CHRM, MOH, DE, SAM, VDSI, LOGI, and BGG. But P/Es are flat or even rising for some of these.

CCM, MOH, and DE have decent sales growth, but earnings are basically flat. CHRM is the only one with any growth.

Charm Comminications.cn:

EPS Growth
Prev Yr	Past Yr	Growth	P/E
0.10	0.14	40.0%	-
-0.13	0.14	207.7%	-
0.10	0.10	0.0%	-
0.12	0.14	16.7%	18.2
Next Two Quarters (est)
0.14	0.33	135.7%	13.03
0.14	0.40	185.7%	9.50

Sales Growth
Prev Yr	Last Yr	Growth
75.4	48.4	-35.8%
30.6	56.7	85.3%
42.0	62.3	48.3%
45.3	67.3	48.6%

The Oddest Thing Happened

The markets went up for the third straight day. Hard to believe, eh? DNS +141, +40, +16.

Of the day's top ten performers, 9 of the 10 aren't in any other period's top ten list. #1 SIMG was, but its 14.3% gain got it into the one and two week top ten lists. The stronger leaders seemed to take the day off, coming in with modest gains or very modest losses. Only SMTC, FCFS, and YONG were in the +4.5% range.

Trades:

I bought call options on SMS, my little fast action steel play. I've followed SMS since it was MTLM, and when there's a little good news, this guy runs up fast. There's no meaningful coverage of it, so I won't recommend it. I bought December calls with almost no time premium, and for less than the intrinsic value at the close.

Reversal alerts: (17).

Those with some earnings and sales growth, lowest forward P/E first: UNTK, PRAA, LOJN, TSU, TRCR, and ANR. These charts aren't pretty. UNTK and TSU have the best reversal patterns.

A Real "Up" Day

DNS +45, +37, +11.

Lots of stuff was up with the losers down modestly, except maybe CVI and IDCC. My WPRT calls nudged up with the stock rising 11.3%. EXM, CIEN, ATHN, CMI, and GTLS stand out too.

Trades:

This morning I'm looking at some of my stocks, SPRD, CPX, PTEN, FHN, ROSE, LVS, MCP and I'm seeing earnings estimate being revised upward, not downward, and sales estimates that exceed the MRQ and show substantial growth from a year ago. Then I see so many that were recovering then got knocked down again. But not to where they were, but down to a trendline along the bottoms that looked like it could actually be rising. That in my opinion is not the time to sell, but the time to buy. At the risk of throwing good money after bad ...

I bought call options on MCP and CPX for two accounts.

Reversal alerts: (37), but most get filtered out very quickly.

Honestly, the only one of interest to me is VRTS which I already own. Sales growth has accelerated for the last four quarters from 17.1% to 40.5% though sales are estimated to level off. YoY quarterly earnings growth has been in the high triple digits (512.5% MRQ) but is estimated to fall to 128.2% and 138.8% for the next two quarters, but still significantly higher sequentally. The P/E will drop from 35.4 to 19.6.

EPS Growth
Prev Yr	Past Yr	Growth	P/E
-0.14	0.39	378.6%	-
0.09	0.49	444.4%	-
0.03	0.48	-	-
-0.08	0.33	512.5%	35.4
Next Two Quarters (est)
0.39	0.89	128.2%	26.35
0.49	1.17	138.8%	19.55

Sales Growth
Prev Yr	Last Yr	Growth
30.4	35.6	17.1%
33.3	40.7	22.2%
33.4	44.1	32.0%
34.8	48.9	40.5%

Residual Value

DNS +69, +27, +8.

Trades:

I sold-to-close the RBCN put options, +6.5%.

I closed out most of my underwater September call options while there was still a bit of time value. HUN -97.9%, ODFL -87.3%, TW -71.7%.  AGM and TIBX are about to close worthless.

I sold calls to convert ROSE to a bull call spread.

Timing can be everything with options and I really jumped the gun here.

REITs ARR and NLY were up, GLD down, and SPRD marches upward.

Reversal alerts: (2), SAVB and VLCCF. Nope.

Miserable

I don't like to short the market but that seems to be the only way to make money here. It's a good thing I put my gainers list together yesterday, because today's action pulled a lot of those numbers negative. DNS -304, -61, -32.

Trades: none.

HURC beat the estimates, up 9.1%. REITs ARR and NLY were up.

Portfolios:

The ESG port is down to -18.9%, the value-sales port is at +2.37%.

Reversal alerts: (3).

CHRM's growth and P/E looked good, then I saw the chart. Maybe not.

Roller Coaster

I'll be glad when we get off this ride. DNS -119, -20, -13.

Trades: none.

 There are some stocks showing steady gains for the 1 & 2 week, 1, 2, & 3 month, 6 month, and year periods - i.e., everything not counting today. The two month period is the crunch point, so I'll order it by that performance period: EM (being acquired), ATHN, SPRD, CF, FCFS, CVI, SLV, LVS, WPRT, MCP, BIDU, GG, AMZN, and VSEA (acquired).

Honorable mention goes to those with a loss in only one of those periods: JCOM, CHL, AAPL, KGC, PAAS, ZAGG, LULU, EGHT, and GTLS.

Reversal alerts: (4), nothing interesting.

Up, Then More

What a day! I'm so glad I didn't push the panic sell button yesterday morning. DNS +276, +75, +33.

Trades: none.

My WPRT leads the watchlist, up 19.4% today.

Reversal alerts: (4), nothing interesting.

Down, Then Not So Much

That was a decent recovery after a rough open. DNS -101, -7, -9.

Trades: I bought GLD.

Reversal alerts: (1), junk.

Ugh

A very disappointing two days to say the least. Oddly enough, the indexes are up for the week. DNS -253, -66, -30.

Trades: none.

I'm not buying any more here. I'll wait to see how things shake out.

Portfolios:

The value-sales port is at +4.33%. The ESG portfolio was coming along, but now back down to -16.8%.

Reversal alerts: (2), uh, no.

I Should Have Waited

Today was certainly a better day to buy. DNS -120, -33, -14.

Trades:

I had orders in, but nothing filled. That's probably because they were for call options on SPRD (up 8.55%) and CVLT (up 1.86%).

Otherwise, CIEN had a good day. Hey look, they might turn a profit in six months!

I'm generally optimistic because my reversal indicators are trending up, as is the VectorVest Market Timing Indicator.

Reversal alerts: (3), duds.