I was really hoping for more of a rally this week. Overall it was okay though with a higher high and a higher low. That's bullish in my book. DNS -69, -9, -5.
Trades: none.
Portfolios:
The test portfolios continue to bob around. The ESG port is at -14.61% with 10 of 37 stocks above water. The value-sales port is at -1.12%.
Reversal alerts: none.
Here's hoping for a better year in 2012 because this market has been a beast to trade since April.
Cheers!
Saturday, December 31, 2011
Thursday, December 29, 2011
Getting There
Today's gain got us closer to going positive for the week, but we're not there yet. DNS +136, +24, +13.
Trades: none.
Reversal alerts: (3).
ULTA has some growth and a forward P/E improving from 40 to 35.
Trades: none.
Reversal alerts: (3).
ULTA has some growth and a forward P/E improving from 40 to 35.
A Day Too Early
Hmmm, seems I should have waited a day. DNS -140, -35, -7.
Trades:
The rest of my KOG order filled, then I doubled down.
Then I gambled that MCP was going to bounce so I added on there. That didn't pan out when MCP drifted down more to close down 14.1%, and is down again today.
Reversal alerts: (3).
The only one to even consider here is TGT with modest growth and a 2.3% dividend yield.
Trades:
The rest of my KOG order filled, then I doubled down.
Then I gambled that MCP was going to bounce so I added on there. That didn't pan out when MCP drifted down more to close down 14.1%, and is down again today.
Reversal alerts: (3).
The only one to even consider here is TGT with modest growth and a 2.3% dividend yield.
Tuesday, December 27, 2011
Friday, December 23, 2011
Ho-hum
We managed to hang onto Tuesday's gain and ended up higher for the week. Almost to where we were two weeks ago. DNS +124, +19, +11.
Trades: none.
Portfolios:
Not much difference this week. ESG is at -13.7% with 11 of 37 stocks above water, and the value-sales port is at +0.19%.
Reversal alerts: (9).
First, there are the value traps MY, FLSR, and ASIA. Then more substantial companies SYNA, ARUN, and UA.
Have a Merry Christmas folks!
Trades: none.
Portfolios:
Not much difference this week. ESG is at -13.7% with 11 of 37 stocks above water, and the value-sales port is at +0.19%.
Reversal alerts: (9).
First, there are the value traps MY, FLSR, and ASIA. Then more substantial companies SYNA, ARUN, and UA.
Have a Merry Christmas folks!
Thursday, December 22, 2011
Safe To Dip In?
Another day of nice gains is making it hard to stay away. But it'll be tough to make too much of the market's direction as the volume thins out. DNS +62, +21, +10.
Trades: none.
Reversal alerts: (10).
TIBX looks good with strong double digit YoY quarterly sales (~24%) and earnings (36 - 92%) growth, and the P/E falling from 41 to 29.
CRM's quarterly earnings should jump to a new level for the next two quarters but the P/E will only drop to 315 then 152. The P/E would go to 71 if CRM could sustain those earnings levels for two more quarters. Kind of pricey.
Trades: none.
Reversal alerts: (10).
TIBX looks good with strong double digit YoY quarterly sales (~24%) and earnings (36 - 92%) growth, and the P/E falling from 41 to 29.
CRM's quarterly earnings should jump to a new level for the next two quarters but the P/E will only drop to 315 then 152. The P/E would go to 71 if CRM could sustain those earnings levels for two more quarters. Kind of pricey.
Wednesday, December 21, 2011
Better Late Than Never
Tuesday, December 20, 2011
Take a Pass
It was tough seeing a nice day like today go by with so many of my favorites running well. But I'll venture that buyers will be underwater later this week. DNS +337, +81, +36.
I liked the charts of CF and CMG going into today but not enough to buy them up 3 or 4 percent in this market.
Trades: none.
Reversal alerts: (62).
Filtered down to NFX, XCO, ATAX, MINI, and MDRX.
I liked the charts of CF and CMG going into today but not enough to buy them up 3 or 4 percent in this market.
Trades: none.
Reversal alerts: (62).
Filtered down to NFX, XCO, ATAX, MINI, and MDRX.
Monday, December 19, 2011
We Used to Trade Stocks
... back in the day that is. Now we just hope a few dividend paying stocks will hold up and watch our 401(k) plans drop even lower with every government move to bolster the economy (or is it to bolster their votes come next November?). DNS -100, -32, -14.
Trades:
There go the market indexes again so there's not much use in holding my called FMCN and SPRD shares. Plus both of these have been hit pretty hard so there's a head wind of tax loss selling. No sense fighting to get back where I'm at now.
FMCN, +29.8%.
SPRD, -84.7%, which almost feels like a win considering where it's at. There's 15.3% worth of icing on what was going to be a big fat doughnut had my calls expired worthless. Fortunately this was a small position, but it sucked up most of the profit from the other two.
I put a contingency order on my XLF puts and it triggered. That's +19.9% profit sniped. Moving on.
That leaves me with only ARR in my trading accounts, and even that is starting to flirt with the stop loss trigger.
Reversal alerts: (37).
Filtered for EPS growth and combined sales and earnings acceleration, lowest forward P/E first: OC, TEN, SPN, EXXI, MCP, BGCP, GPRO, and MLNX.
Trades:
There go the market indexes again so there's not much use in holding my called FMCN and SPRD shares. Plus both of these have been hit pretty hard so there's a head wind of tax loss selling. No sense fighting to get back where I'm at now.
FMCN, +29.8%.
SPRD, -84.7%, which almost feels like a win considering where it's at. There's 15.3% worth of icing on what was going to be a big fat doughnut had my calls expired worthless. Fortunately this was a small position, but it sucked up most of the profit from the other two.
I put a contingency order on my XLF puts and it triggered. That's +19.9% profit sniped. Moving on.
That leaves me with only ARR in my trading accounts, and even that is starting to flirt with the stop loss trigger.
Reversal alerts: (37).
Filtered for EPS growth and combined sales and earnings acceleration, lowest forward P/E first: OC, TEN, SPN, EXXI, MCP, BGCP, GPRO, and MLNX.
Friday, December 16, 2011
More Down
That seems to be what we have to look forward to for at least a little while longer as we close out another down week. DNS -2, +14, +4.
The oil group did well today with 13 gainers out of 14 in my watchlist.
Trades:
Both of my call spreads closed with just the long calls ITM, so I'll have some big positions to close out next week. FMCN couldn't hold above $20 (the short strike) and SPRD nudged above $20 (the long strike). I gambled that SPRD's volatility would kick in and mitigate my losses, but that didn't happen (yet). Maybe they'll gap up Monday morning. It could happen. Really.
Portfolios:
The ESV port is at -17.9% with (10) stocks above water, the value-sales port is at -3.96%.
Reversal alerts: (35).
Filtered, by lowest forward P/E first: CAM, SQM, EL, and AMZN.
The oil group did well today with 13 gainers out of 14 in my watchlist.
Trades:
Both of my call spreads closed with just the long calls ITM, so I'll have some big positions to close out next week. FMCN couldn't hold above $20 (the short strike) and SPRD nudged above $20 (the long strike). I gambled that SPRD's volatility would kick in and mitigate my losses, but that didn't happen (yet). Maybe they'll gap up Monday morning. It could happen. Really.
Portfolios:
The ESV port is at -17.9% with (10) stocks above water, the value-sales port is at -3.96%.
Reversal alerts: (35).
Filtered, by lowest forward P/E first: CAM, SQM, EL, and AMZN.
Thursday, December 15, 2011
Medic!
My call spreads need help tomorrow! DNS +45, +2, +4.
Two stocks showing consistent price gains are NCTY and SWS. UEPS and LLY have been moving up lately.
Trades: none.
Reversal alerts:
Of the five stocks alerting in the T2 script, ATAX and LIWA are interesting.
ATAX has YoY quarterly sales gains of about 20%, and is expected to ramp up earnings over the next two quarters dropping the P/E from 56 to 16.9. The chart stinks though.
LIWA is showing strong sales and earnings growth with current and forward P/Es below 3.3. I'd say someone is skeptical of their numbers.
The HLR script alerted on thirty-eight stocks. Filtered for good earnings growth yields WNS, BIRT, and RTI. These stocks aren't exactly making the new highs list.
Two stocks showing consistent price gains are NCTY and SWS. UEPS and LLY have been moving up lately.
Trades: none.
Reversal alerts:
Of the five stocks alerting in the T2 script, ATAX and LIWA are interesting.
ATAX has YoY quarterly sales gains of about 20%, and is expected to ramp up earnings over the next two quarters dropping the P/E from 56 to 16.9. The chart stinks though.
LIWA is showing strong sales and earnings growth with current and forward P/Es below 3.3. I'd say someone is skeptical of their numbers.
The HLR script alerted on thirty-eight stocks. Filtered for good earnings growth yields WNS, BIRT, and RTI. These stocks aren't exactly making the new highs list.
Wednesday, December 14, 2011
At Least ...
Tuesday, December 13, 2011
Ouch
A number of leading stocks took a big hit today. DNS -66, -33, -11.
SSW gained 16.4% today after gapping up much higher at the open.
Trades:
CLMT hit the stop loss trigger, -4.6%.
Reversal alerts: (1).
MNTA, but it has been on my radar as a stock to short as it appears to be facing a patent cliff and increasing competition.
SSW gained 16.4% today after gapping up much higher at the open.
Trades:
CLMT hit the stop loss trigger, -4.6%.
Reversal alerts: (1).
MNTA, but it has been on my radar as a stock to short as it appears to be facing a patent cliff and increasing competition.
Momenta Pharmaceuticals Inc. (MNTA)
| EPS Growth | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Prev Yr | Past Yr | Growth | P/E |
| -0.34 | 0.79 | 332.4% | - |
| -0.37 | 1.15 | 410.8% | - |
| -0.34 | 1.29 | 479.4% | - |
| 0.72 | 1.21 | 68.1% | 3.6 |
| Next Two Quarters (est) | |||
| 0.79 | 0.23 | -71.5% | 4.08 |
| 1.15 | 0.43 | -62.6% | 5.01 |
Monday, December 12, 2011
If You Can't Say Something Nice ...
then I shouldn't say anything at all about this market. Well, everything is getting cheaper so I guess that's good. And the markets closed higher than they were most of the day. DNS -163, -35, -19.
I thought NFLX was sporting a bullish pattern on Friday. It prevailed today with a 6.2% gain despite the markets' decline, coming in just behind UTSI in the watchlist.
Trades: none.
Remaining Positions:
Equities: ARR is holding up. CLMT is just above the trailing stop ... for now.
Bull call spreads: FMCN is well in the money (above the short call) but only 7% away from costing me money ... that's not far enough when it's moving 5% every day. SPRD is showing a loss for now. Both expire Friday.
Puts: My short position in XLF (Financial ETF) is doing fine.
By next Monday I expect to have only two positions, both profitable. One long with an 18.6% annual yield, paid monthly, and one short.
Reversal alerts: (3).
MEDW and ESEA pass through the penny stock filter.
I thought NFLX was sporting a bullish pattern on Friday. It prevailed today with a 6.2% gain despite the markets' decline, coming in just behind UTSI in the watchlist.
Trades: none.
Remaining Positions:
Equities: ARR is holding up. CLMT is just above the trailing stop ... for now.
Bull call spreads: FMCN is well in the money (above the short call) but only 7% away from costing me money ... that's not far enough when it's moving 5% every day. SPRD is showing a loss for now. Both expire Friday.
Puts: My short position in XLF (Financial ETF) is doing fine.
By next Monday I expect to have only two positions, both profitable. One long with an 18.6% annual yield, paid monthly, and one short.
Reversal alerts: (3).
MEDW and ESEA pass through the penny stock filter.
Friday, December 9, 2011
Got Whiplash?
I don't recall a market this hard to trade since the dot com bubble started to burst. DNS +187, +50, +21.
SIGA has a nice 32% gain today. CWEI rebounded with a 9.8% gain.
Trades: none.
Portfolios:
The ESG portfolio is at -11.0% with 13 of 37 stocks above water now. The value-sales port dropped to +3.3%.
Reversal alerts: (3), junk.
SIGA has a nice 32% gain today. CWEI rebounded with a 9.8% gain.
Trades: none.
Portfolios:
The ESG portfolio is at -11.0% with 13 of 37 stocks above water now. The value-sales port dropped to +3.3%.
Reversal alerts: (3), junk.
Thursday, December 8, 2011
As Expected
Wednesday, December 7, 2011
Rebound to Even
The markets opened down and clawed their way back to even. DNS +46, 0, +3.
I took my cue from the European markets as they were diving and continued to liquidate positions. All equity positions are protected by trailing stop loss orders. That leaves two bull call spreads (long) and put options (short) on the XLF Financial ETF.
Trades:
I sold my CVI calls, +7.33%.
All this trading while in capital preservation mode is a losing proposition. I need more and bigger winners to make up for the trades that go bad (e.g., GMCR, FMCN, SPRD), and I'm not getting them in this environment. So I'll wait for the market or at least oil prices to reset.
Reversal alerts:(2), junk.
I took my cue from the European markets as they were diving and continued to liquidate positions. All equity positions are protected by trailing stop loss orders. That leaves two bull call spreads (long) and put options (short) on the XLF Financial ETF.
Trades:
I sold my CVI calls, +7.33%.
All this trading while in capital preservation mode is a losing proposition. I need more and bigger winners to make up for the trades that go bad (e.g., GMCR, FMCN, SPRD), and I'm not getting them in this environment. So I'll wait for the market or at least oil prices to reset.
Reversal alerts:(2), junk.
Tuesday, December 6, 2011
Close 'em Out
It's quite a mixed bag of gainers and losers today. DNS +52, -6, +1.
FRO closed up 18.6% after being considerably higher. HL closed up 9.2%.
SPRD got clobbered again for another 9.9%, and that's after it recovered some. I was sitting on a 51.5% gain (less comms) two days ago, now I'm down about 40%. SPRD is pretty volatile so a few good days could get me back ITM.
I felt like most everyone has been ignoring the elephant in the room that is Europe. Something is going to hit the fan again soon and I wanted to be in cash or short.
Trades:
I chose to close out my MCHX call options with an execute and sell order, +5.20%.
I sold my $20/$22.50 FMCN call spread while there was some value there (FMCM closed at $20.34), -25.2%. It might have recovered by the 16th, but not if the tide goes out. I'd rather have 75% of my money than none of it.
I went short with XLF (Financial Sector ETF) puts.
Reversal alerts: (3).
MEDW, PRFT, and GR. Pass.
FRO closed up 18.6% after being considerably higher. HL closed up 9.2%.
SPRD got clobbered again for another 9.9%, and that's after it recovered some. I was sitting on a 51.5% gain (less comms) two days ago, now I'm down about 40%. SPRD is pretty volatile so a few good days could get me back ITM.
I felt like most everyone has been ignoring the elephant in the room that is Europe. Something is going to hit the fan again soon and I wanted to be in cash or short.
Trades:
I chose to close out my MCHX call options with an execute and sell order, +5.20%.
I sold my $20/$22.50 FMCN call spread while there was some value there (FMCM closed at $20.34), -25.2%. It might have recovered by the 16th, but not if the tide goes out. I'd rather have 75% of my money than none of it.
I went short with XLF (Financial Sector ETF) puts.
Reversal alerts: (3).
MEDW, PRFT, and GR. Pass.
Monday, December 5, 2011
Give Back Half
It was a nice start. Too bad the markets couldn't hold their ground. DNS +78, +29, +13.
FRO had a 16% gain today. SPRD gave back 8.6%.
Trades:
PTEN ran up then drifted into its 5% trailing stop. It needed either more wiggle room or less, -2.2%.
I should have stuck with GMCR.
Reversal alerts: (11).
GEOY, PRSC, CSTR, and NFLX.
FRO had a 16% gain today. SPRD gave back 8.6%.
Trades:
PTEN ran up then drifted into its 5% trailing stop. It needed either more wiggle room or less, -2.2%.
I should have stuck with GMCR.
Reversal alerts: (11).
GEOY, PRSC, CSTR, and NFLX.
Friday, December 2, 2011
Two Steps Back, One Big Step Forward
This week didn't make up the losses from the two previous weeks, but it came close. DNS -1, +1, 0.
Watchlisters with a 20% or more gain for the week are NCTY (57.7%), CWEI (35.3%), ANR, AMED, CMC, MCHX, SWS, VIT, MCP, LCC, and SPN (20.2%).
Trades: none.
Portfolios:
The ESG portfolio is at -12.6% with 11 of 37 positions above water. The value-sales port is at +4.5%. The oil portfolio is at +5.85% with 8 of 11 positions above water (all but one were negative before). KOG, CWEI, and ROSE have double digit gains since Nov 3.
Reversal alerts: (13).
KITD, HXM, VCI, INTX, FLY, ZION, and SNCR sort of look okay. Maybe. Or not.
Watchlisters with a 20% or more gain for the week are NCTY (57.7%), CWEI (35.3%), ANR, AMED, CMC, MCHX, SWS, VIT, MCP, LCC, and SPN (20.2%).
Trades: none.
Portfolios:
The ESG portfolio is at -12.6% with 11 of 37 positions above water. The value-sales port is at +4.5%. The oil portfolio is at +5.85% with 8 of 11 positions above water (all but one were negative before). KOG, CWEI, and ROSE have double digit gains since Nov 3.
Reversal alerts: (13).
KITD, HXM, VCI, INTX, FLY, ZION, and SNCR sort of look okay. Maybe. Or not.
Thursday, December 1, 2011
I'll Take It
Today was good for a few good trades. DNS -26, +6, -2.
Shippers FREE and DRYS were up 11% and change. LULU recovered two thirds of its early morning loss.
Trades:
I was happy to sell when GCMRrrr's little rally faded and hit the 2% trailing stop loss order. It was nice to recover some value after it got clobbered but I have no intention of waiting around hoping to get back to even, -25.0%. Grrr.
SPRD bounced enough to hit a limit sell order for a bull call spread conversion. If it can hold $25 in 11 trading days it'll gross 61%.
My FMCN calls moved into the money today.
Reversal alerts: (32) with (24) coming from the more reliable t2 script.
Filtered: PTEN, DMND, BRCM, NGS, INFA, and RTI. PTEN and RTI have the best EPS growth estimates.
Shippers FREE and DRYS were up 11% and change. LULU recovered two thirds of its early morning loss.
Trades:
I was happy to sell when GCMRrrr's little rally faded and hit the 2% trailing stop loss order. It was nice to recover some value after it got clobbered but I have no intention of waiting around hoping to get back to even, -25.0%. Grrr.
SPRD bounced enough to hit a limit sell order for a bull call spread conversion. If it can hold $25 in 11 trading days it'll gross 61%.
My FMCN calls moved into the money today.
Reversal alerts: (32) with (24) coming from the more reliable t2 script.
Filtered: PTEN, DMND, BRCM, NGS, INFA, and RTI. PTEN and RTI have the best EPS growth estimates.
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