MOH Gone

MOH had a good run but EPS estimates started slipping. I put a 4% trailing stop loss order in place. It triggered on Friday, +11.9%.

The SPY puts are still in place.

LP RI OP on AMAG

Leerink Partners reiterates its outperform rating for AMAG. "there is a high likelihood that the [competitor's] drug is contraindicated for use in pregnant women". [Street Insider]

Watching MGR

I'll grab some more MGR if it hits my limit order this week. MGR is exchange traded debt issued by AMG (which hasn't fared quite as well) which pays a 6-3/8% dividend on $25 par value callable in August 2017. That gives it a present value of $28.19. It closed at $26.11 today.

[SA article]

EFOI ... Again

I still like EFOI if their number hold. After the drubbing they took Thursday and Friday their forward P/E dropped to 17.7. It seemed to stabilize this morning so I bought some shares.

Too bad I didn't pick up some TRVN too. Up 15.5% for the day.

More AMAG

I bought more AMAG yesterday when it was down 10.8% on news of debatable impact to AMAG (SeekingAlpha - read comments).

The SPY puts are still in place.

Updates, SEDG & AMAG

SEDG had great news on their new HD-Wave inverters (PV mag article), up 4.1% for the day.

AMAG went down even more, -4.7%. With triple-digit quarterly revenue growth for the last three quarters and a forward P/E of 7.4 this looks like an easy buy. But EPS estimates were just revised down a few percent for the next two quarters, slightly reducing the estimates for this year and next. It's problematic if this becomes a trend.

MOH has been a steady performer without all the drama. Not cheap with a forward P/E of 22, but good growth projected for earnings and revenue.

I went short against the general market again with SPY puts.

DFS Gone, Less SEDG

DFS was bought in anticipation of a Fed rate hike. Since purchase DFS has been mostly good at going down. The morning started off like a 2-day rally, and I was going to sell into it. When the market started to turn south I jettisoned the DFS shares, -11.2%.

Around the same time I also sold my highest priced (and smallest) lot of SEDG, -8.9%. I'm still overweight with SEDG shares so I haven't given up on them. Just reducing my exposure and the thrashing my portfolio takes when the market tanks. More money for cheaper shares later.

My top holdings are SEDG, AMAG, and INFN.

AMAG still looks really good though the EPS estimates are bouncing around a bit. But why buy when it keeps getting cheaper? I plan to add to my position before that train leaves the station.

EFOI Gone, Puts Gone

I sold the EFOI position already, +10.6%. Too much too fast I think, plus a fair amount of negative sentiment.

I also sold the SPY puts. I was waiting for the opening rally to fade but had to bail while they were green. +2.0% for the large position, +0.3% for the small account. Next time I hope to get in earlier, and maybe sell earlier.

Zig or Zag

Now comes the hard part - figuring out whether to stay short or go long.

Yesterday was a great day for longs. My SPY puts lost half their value. AMAG had a great day and SEDG did okay, both of which I trimmed the day before.

The SPY puts have worked great. My portfolio gained value all but one day (when my #2 position AMAG took a dive). It's reassuring to know you're making more money in a down market (provided your biggest positions only suffer modest losses). I wish I'd put them on two weeks earlier. But in a rally they puts the brakes on a rebound and are soon to be a losing position.

Screen:
I looked at some stocks that have been defying the market and came up with AXGN, TRVN, EZCH, EFOI and BEAT (charts). I could have bought TRVN when it was only up 3% (sigh). I ended up buying a starter position in EFOI when it was up 9% or so and still closed with a gain.

Batten Down the Hatches

Today I gave up on a short term recovery. As much as I like the rebound prospects for my under water positions, I don't like the market. So to reduce exposure and raise cash I sold some of my highest priced (and smallest) lots and September calls.

First to go were some SEDG positions opened in June, -36.5%. Then I sold the quickly decaying time value in my Sept $25 calls, -83.4%. Yeah, those got away from me.

I sold the top lot of AMAG, -15.1%.

The SPY put options have worked well so far; up 49% and offsetting my stock losses. Now if I can only divine the bottom and shift gears before these puts smack me in the face.