Thursday, March 28, 2013

If In Doubt, Get Out

I just made that up.

Or I heard or read it somewhere some time between 20 years ago and 10 minutes ago.

Anyway, that sort of describes what I did this morning, selling my April CRZO and FLT calls, +84% and +52% respectively. I didn't want to see my gains evaporate with the window closing on expiration. And, if they go down, I get a better entry point for the next round.

GOOG hit the trailing stop, -1.17%.

I tried to sell my DCIX and buy more SMS, but neither worked out.

Tuesday, March 26, 2013

More Register Ringing

I sold my GALE shares when it hit my limit order, +3.1%. It will probably push through resistance and move up from here, but I'm tired of the ride.

I took some money off of the table and sold half of my FLT calls, +52%. It's not that I don't think FLT will continue to do well; there was just too much profit at risk and it was my largest option position (and my biggest stock holding for that matter).

I bought JAZZ shares. I hope JAZZ is near a bottom.

OAS had a nice day.

Monday, March 25, 2013

Raising Cash

VRTU spiked down this morning and hit its 6% trailing stop, +7.6%.

I didn't care for the downward revisions of ECL's earnings projections, so I put a 1% trailing stop on it as it was moving higher this morning. It later sold, +1.6%. I don't have the conviction to hold it here, so taking a small profit and raising cash sounds like a good idea when I have so many other positions that are running well.

On Friday I bought the wrong expiration for some EWZ calls. In fact it expired and executed that day after losing some value. Fortunately it was moving up as I was selling off the called shares and I even sold the last portion near the top for a profit. But it wasn't enough, -17.4%. At least it was a very small position (a smaller dollar loss than my gain in ECL). I still want to catch the rebound in this ETF.

I didn't buy my JAZZ yet.

Sunday, March 24, 2013

Prospects

JAZZ seems to have some nice growth ahead of it. The current P/E is currently 13.4 falling to 8 using EPS estimates for next year which have been revised upward three times in the last 90 days. The last four quarters sport triple-digit YoY quarterly sales growth, though that will decelerate in part due to a strong second quarter last year.

JAZZ came up during Cramer's Lightening Round so Cramer will probably follow up on it this week. Given that the stock price has pulled back 6%, I plan to move back into it early in hopes Cramer finds something he likes.



EPS Growth
Prev Yr Past Yr Growth P/E
0.54 0.51 -5.6% -
0.81 1.12 38.3% -
0.77 0.58 -24.7% -
0.88 2.79 217.0% 13.4
Next Two Quarters (est)
0.51 1.33 161.6% 10.19
1.12 1.44 28.6% 9.51
Sales Growth
Prev Yr Last Yr Growth
50.9 108.4 113.0%
64.6 226.8 251.1%
73.3 175.5 139.4%
83.5 183.7 120.0%

OAS is also showing strong growth with a P/E falling from 35 to 11.3 and strong double-digit sales growth projected for several quarters. KOG is in a similar position; P/E falling from 18 to 9.4. EPS estimates are holding better than OAS, but it's off its highs and not trending well. I already own these.



EPS Growth
Prev Yr Past Yr Growth P/E
0.02 -0.15 -850.0% -
-0.07 0.18 357.1% -
0.36 0.82 127.8% -
0.72 0.20 -72.2% 35.3
Next Two Quarters (est)
-0.15 0.49 426.7% 22.12
0.18 0.54 198.9% 18.25
Sales Growth
Prev Yr Last Yr Growth
49.1 116.9 138.1%
58.7 138.6 136.1%
67.2 149.1 121.9%
87.6 184.7 110.8%


EPS Growth
Prev Yr Past Yr Growth P/E
-0.04 0.01 125.0% -
0.04 0.35 775.0% -
0.15 0.01 -93.3% -
-0.15 0.13 186.7% 18.4
Next Two Quarters (est)
0.01 0.15 1360.0% 14.44
0.35 0.16 -54.0% 20.69
Sales Growth
Prev Yr Last Yr Growth
13.3 79.9 500.8%
35.4 85.8 142.4%
29.5 112.1 280.0%
55.0 130.8 137.8%

Friday, March 22, 2013

Bulls Got Loose

FLT had a nice day, up 4.75%. It's rebounded from Monday's low of $67.33 to close today at $75.82. AAPL has even gained 20 points over the last 2-1/2 weeks.

I bought calls in ETFs EWZ and OIH.

Thursday, March 21, 2013

The Pause That Refreshes?

Today my GTLS shares got stopped out, +12.7%.

Today I bought calls for HMA and OAS. Yesterday I bought calls for KOG. I think I'm done buying until until this market gets some traction again.

Tuesday, March 19, 2013

Buying the Dip

I bought June calls for CRZO, DCIX, KOG, and URI. I bought shares of TICC.

Monday, March 18, 2013

Morning Fright

The morning started off with a few trailing stop loss orders firing off: FLT, MPW, and URI. URI was the only full position sold. The FLT sale just downsized my largest holding, and the MPW sale was meant to get me off of margin. -3.9%, +11.5, and +5.3% respectively.

After reviewing all my holdings (and more) this weekend, I found I like the growth potential of KOG the most. Next year's EPS estimates yield a forward P/E of 9.8, with triple digit sales growth for a while to come. Next year's quarterly sales will average 154% above the MRQ's figure. I bought more shares and some June calls.

Saturday, March 16, 2013

Mar13 Expiry

Bull credit spreads with the puts expiring out of the money were GOOG, QQQ, and XLB for +12.7%+4.1%, and +13.6% respectively.

I had to cover the short leg of the FXI spread when it dropped into the money Friday morning. +0.7% is better than a loss (or a passbook savings account for that matter).

My converted bull call spread on URI closed out for +132%. I'm glad I sold the short call a little deeper in the money, giving up some time premium for safety margin.

I won't be putting money back into ARR for a while and decided to go with a medical REIT or maybe AI. I bought calls for MPW Friday morning.

Otherwise, positions doing very well are CRZO, EXLS, GTLS, HMA, MPW, OAS, PRAA, and VRTU. My GALE and REGN positions could use some help, but there's nothing I'm very worried about here. That said, I do have trailing stops on most of the stock positions.

Thursday, March 14, 2013

Don't Cut That Dividend!

ARR dropped 4.4% today which triggered another trailing stop loss sell order for another third of my position. -3.1% (not including dividends).

I closed out my March DBA call, -14.6%.

DVA looked like it bottomed so I picked up some shares of that.

Tomorrow will be interesting with four credit spreads and a bull call spread expiring. I hope FXI can behave - everything else is in pretty good shape.

Wednesday, March 13, 2013

Scrub

I threw in the towel on Friday's URI calls, -45.5% and -46.8%. URI wasn't showing strength and was down again so I opted not to pay to roll it forward. It went up a buck after I hit the confirm order button of course.

SLRC goes ex-div next week and I didn't want to take a $0.60 hit on a $2 option, so those calls were sold, +33.2%. I bought stock shares in another account.

ARR went ex-div and announced a dividend cut. A trailing stop sold 1/3 of my position, -0.8%. It held up better than I expected. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

FXI has been selling off so now the short leg of my bull put spread is ITM. It's never easy.

I bought ECL shares on Monday.

Sunday, March 10, 2013

Plink!

Friday's QQQ puts expired worthless, so that credit spread netted +7.5%. Another one expires this coming Friday, along with FXI, GOOG, URI, and XLB. I also have expiring calls for URI and DBA.

I rolled Friday's SLV calls to 5 April.

Thursday, March 7, 2013

Buy and Hold, For 2 Days

FLT announced a secondary offering and dropped 2% off the bat so I bought more shares and April call options. I should probably calculate the dilution to see if it was oversold, and hence a better deal. Otherwise it wasn't - it just felt like a sale. But I've been buying on the way up anyway, so no biggie.

I bought more KOG shares early on, so that turned out well since it closed up 4% for the day.

There was no value in spreading my March KOG calls so I figured I'd sell 'em if I could turn 15% ... I'd be happy with that. Turns out I was wrong. I netted +17% (in two days) and I'm still not happy 'cause I could have made more. There's no pleasing me.

Wednesday, March 6, 2013

Dodging the Rally

I covered my way-OTM GLD and GDX bull credit spreads ... just before they reversed and rallied of course. GDX had its best day in weeks. I netted -68% and -95% respectively. It sure would have been nice to recover some of that.

I covered my XLI spread for only $0.03. The problem was, I didn't get much when I sold it, and oX's commissions took a big chunk. I think I'll let the puts expire OTM next time - I didn't even need the buying power that quickly. +1%. At this rate, I'll make up those gold losses in no time ... not.

My well-ITM FLT spread sold for a nickel under max value, +60%.

I sold March bull credit spreads in QQQ and GOOG, bought April calls for OAS, and bought SMS stock.

Monday I sold the April TAL calls before the stock went ex-dividend, +8%.

Friday, March 1, 2013

Singin' the Precious Metals Blues

I closed out my expiring SLV calls today, -28.5%. I have more SLV calls for next week, and then GLD and GDX expiring on the 15th. I can't wait to be done with these. I got way too aggressive with calls and bull put spreads on the precious metals and have been paying the price.

As for the stock holdings, GTLS had another good day as did EXLS after reporting. Those two positions along with PRAA are up over 10%.

Feb 13 Review

Last month I got stopped out of 15 positions, and re-bought 4 of them.

Stocks where I saved myself 5% or more were GEOS, and HAIN. Those that cost me 5% or more in gains were ICLR (+13.8%!), FLT, JAZZ, and ECL. Assuming equal position sizes, the summed gain from not selling would have been 24.7% not counting the repurchased URI.

I paid an additional 9% to re-buy FLT (the position is currently down 0.9%), two were about even, and I re-bought URI 8.8% lower (now up 8.3%).

As for options, I made some money with AAPL and NSM, and ETFs MSCI (Taiwan), TBT (short bonds), UNG (nat. gas). I lost money on a speculative shorts on GME and XRT (S&P Retail), and credit spreads on ETFs SPY (short) and GLD (long). The losses exceeded my gains by a meaningful (and somewhat painful) amount.


Lessons learned?

I meant to relax my stops, especially with ECL and JAZZ reporting, but lost focus until too late. FLT had performed so well it deserved a little more wiggle room. I honestly don't see how I could have predicted ICLR's rebound.

I should have monitored the news on GLD. I would have become aware of the rotation out of gold. I ignored the trend in favor in favor of the RSI indicators, as I did with SPY. Also noted: a low delta on the short options doesn't mean squat when you're spitting into the wind. The bear call spread on XRT looked solid at the time - I'll chalk that one up to bad timing.