Moving Up

DNS +153, +33, +13.

Trades:

MRGE wasn't giving me a warm fuzzy so I sold it when it got back to even, +0.7%.

My called JKS shares were putting a fair amount of money at risk so I took the opportunity to close out a win and diversify before getting clobbered, +16.9%.

DAR is being reviewed by Moody's for a credit upgade ... so the stocks went down of course. Go figure. DAR is owned by (234) institutions now owing 87.8% of the float with a 69.5% buy-side bias for institutional trades. Quarterly YoY sales growth accelerated to 170% and quarterly earning growth is holding around 200% with a forward P/E of 13. Estimates were raised recently, but growth next year could flatten out. It seems like a nice "green" company poised to benefit from increased restaurant sales, particularly if oil and gasoline prices continue to fall. I think I'll buy more. (website)

Reversal alerts: (2), junk.

Down Up Day

This is one of those days when the indexes are up but the watchlist is a mixed bag where the losers took the biggest hits. DNS +73, +11, +11. Visa gained 15% today.

Trades: CWEI and EFII as described in the previous post.

Reversal alerts: (6). Only REIT IVR is of interest with YoY sales growth of 228% and higher for the last four quarters. It has a 93% payout ratio and an 18.8% dividend yield and is maintaining a P/E just above 5. Choppy trading though.

CWEI and EFII

Bought 'em.

EFII has 26-32%+ YoY sales growth for the last four quarters, triple-digit YoY earnings growth for the last three quarters and next quarter. Good analyst opinions and a tendency to trounce estimates. P/E of 31 dropping to 22.

CWEI has had 18-37% YoY sales growth for the last four quaters now. Returning to profitability with strong earnings will drop its P/E from 55 to 23. Estimates have been revised downward but next year's numbers are still strong. Institutional ownership is 44% of the floating shares with a 29% bias toward the buy side. Coming off of a bottom.

Monster

What a day. DNS +145, +41, +17. There were substantial gains by a number of stocks, and very few losers.

Trades: none.

Reversal alerts: (16) of which BHI is the standout here fundamental-wise with about 80% YoY sales growth for the last three quarters, triple-digit YoY earnings growth for the last three quarters and estimated for next quarter. The P/E is falling from 27 to 18. The chart and reversal patterns aren't anything special.

Holdings

Holdings by 2-week Performance

Less MRGE because Reuters insists on degrading their daily quote tool.

Bought More

DNS +109, +35, +12.

Trades: I bought a combination of ATHN, DAR and LVS calls and stock. Buy limit orders are in place for CVI and VRTS.

Reversal alerts: (3) of which MHS is only slightly interesting ... until you see the chart.

Up for the Week

Today wasn't so great but the indexes I'm watching were up for the week. DNS -115, -34, -15. Today's action pulled the performance for a number of stocks negative for the week and/or two week periods.

Trades: See previous post. Stats are to the right.

Pharma company PTIE got clobbered today and my options went from +50% to -90% and OTM. I don't see much recovery here. I hate pharma.

The value-sales port moved up a bit, +30.3%.

 

Value-sales portfolio, +30.3%

Reversal alerts: (7) of which PSEC and EOG could be of interest. EOG has a better reversal pattern but I won't be considering either of these.

In a Buying Mood

I added shares of CMG, PVH, & MCP. PTIE got a 40% haircut on a drug rejection.

Not Bad for a Horrible Day

Overall it was a nice recovery. Gainers were up good, losers were down a little. DNS -60, +18, -4.

Trades: I bought calls for FMCN.

Reversal alerts: Only (4) tonight. RIMM, FREE, ARR, and PRFT.

ARR has been drifting down so I'd go with NLY if I were choosing between REITs.

PRFT is anticipating almost a 200% sequential increase in earnings next quarter. YoY earnings growth has been more than double for the last four quarter. The same is anticipated for the next two. YoY sales growth has been between 15 and 24% for each of the last four quarters. Its P/E will fall from around 37 to 18. Analyst opinions are favorable, earnings estimates have been nudged upwards. The chart is crap and the reversal indicators are weak.

Almost

They should have closed the markets at 2 pm. DNS -80, -18, -8.

Trades:

I sold ZAGG per the previous post. I was pretty pleased that I sold when it was up almost 12% ... especially when it dropped back 7%. But then it closed up 18.5% while the rest of the market was turning tail.

Reversal alerts: (9). ALTR is the best of the bunch here with strong double digit sales growth until now. Earning will be falling back a bit with slower sales growth, but estimates have been nudged upward.

ZAGG Gone

It was good while it lasted. We met on Monday. She was gone on Wednesday morning. +14.5%.

ZAGG gapped up on news of an accreditive purchase, I propped a 2% TSL order under it. Up, up, then gone. If only more of my stock relationships were this quick, profitable, and so free of regret and second guessing.

I'll Have Another

Wow, that was pretty nice for a change. DNS +110, +58, +17.

Trades:

I was trying to limit myself to two positions a day but I liked what I saw. My buys are listed in the previous post.

TNP never dropped like most of the other shippers so it was time to bail (PTP). I sold a small short position (puts), -44.7%.

Reversals: (75). Filtered for strong growth: MAG, ZEUS, AA, SEAC, NBR, LVS, and PLAB.

Fingers Crossed!

Shares bought for HURC, LULU, MRGE, and TAL. Bought call options for RBCN. Sold TNP put options.

Bottoms?

The week's action in charts for the S&P Midcap 400 and Russell 2000 Smallcap indexes suggests a bottom - or it could just be a step on the way down. I'd be more optimistic but there are too many macroeconomic issues that haven't improved. No bad news is not necessarily good news.

Clearing?

While we're not out of the woods yet it was encouraging to see some stocks rebounding. DNS +76, +13, +7.

Trades:
I bought smallish positions in ACOR and ZAGG.

Reversal alerts: (28).

Filtered for earnings growth yields CRDN, HURC and CRS.

I find HURC the most interesting with strong double-digit sales growth and triple-digit earnings growth (183% and 250% for the last two MRQs) with 330% growth projected for the next two for a forward P/E of 20. There are also rising estimates and a tendency to beat them by a large margin.

Also making an appearance are recently (or still) owned stocks  MNTA, PTIE, and TNE.

Screens

The database has been updated and here are the stocks with estimated 50% yearly earnings growth over the the next two quarters and three quarters of triple-digit sales growth, lowest forward P/E first: ARR, CF, PVH, PTEN, ZAGG, SPPI, NBIX and ACOR.

Screening with a focus on top line (revenue) growth and acceleration with a positive forward P/E (lfpef): LIWA, TGI, PRIM, CTE, SPPI, MRGE and MCP.

Disclosure

I just bought positions in ACOR and ZAGG. I have a number of positions in ARR because of its stats, resilience, and a 19% yield paid monthly - which qualifies it for a TG2BT alert.

Acronyms

TG2BT = too good to be true.

Found Along the Way

I was looking for a tg2bt page when I found the the quote:

Never own ANYTHING you aren't willing to drill a hole in.

 I'm not entirely sure what that means yet but it seems worth pondering.

Subsiding?

While not particularly encouraging overall, selling pressure may be easing up a little on select stocks. DNS +43, -7, +4.

Watchlist stocks with 5% gains or more for the last two weeks: EGHT TEO LULU OMG FTO & CVI. Up 5% or more for the week adds VDSI TMI LOCM HNR HAYB JKS UA HCP TRLG YGE and TAL.

Trades: none. My call spread for JKS expired ITM so I'll have so sell the called shares to close out that trade.

The value-sales portfolio lost ground again this week, closing at +28.7%.

Value-sales port, +28.7%

Reversal alerts: (66).

Those with estimated 50% yearly earnings growth over the next two quarters are: LFL ANR PCLN VRSN RVBD and ATHN (all hlr signals).

Most stocks that are alerting have been under intense selling pressure and any abatement of that will trigger a reversal signal. However, it is quite likely that selling could resume or intensify. Almost every stock is a reversal candidate now.

Weak

DNS +41, -8, +2.

Trades:

My PTEN call spread was OTM, so I sold for the remaining time value, -89.6%. Fortunately it was a small position.

Reversal alerts: (28) with GMCR and maybe IHS showing potential.

Back in Reverse

Sometimes it's nice to be out of the market watching everything get cheaper. DNS -179, -47, -22.

Trades: none.

Other Thoughts

Tech is dominating the distribution day table with RBCN, CELL, and RVBD being 3 of the 4 stocks with 6 d-days (of the last nine trading days or so), followed by UTSI, SPRD, SIGA, AMD, MSCC, CSCO, BIDU, TNE and STEC (9 of 19) with five d-days.

Reversal alerts: t2 (12) & hlr (28) which is a lot more than I expected.

Many of the t2 alerts are showing good reversal indicators with good symmetry and enough of a sell-off and selling pressure to represent a meaningful reversal signal. Those signals represents a high likelihood of a rebound in a normal market ... not this one. There's too much downward pressure for most reversals attempts to prevail long enough to trade them. That said, for your watchlist consideration ...

t2 candidates with some growth and a decent reversal pattern are: CCIX, DPZ, KMT and maybe SPN.

hlr candidates with growth are (lowest forward P/E first) MAG, SPPI, FDS, BLKB, MRGE and LMNX. MAG has the strongest reversal indicator.

Please consider that I'm filtering on earnings and growth that is based on sales and earnings estimates that are likely to be revised downward in coming months.

For Real?

This rally was nice for a change. We'll see if it holds. DNS +123, +39, +16.

Trades: none.

Reversal alerts: t2: (37), hlr: (404). I think that's a record. Filtered for 50% yearly earnings growth over the next two quarters and sales and earnings acceleration, lowest forward P/E first: GSI FSC HL TRMB CRS GTLS ETFC VRSN & CRM.

TBL, HNR, UA

had a good day along with a few other stocks. NSTC comes off of the watchlist too. DNS +1, -4, +1.

Trades:

I didn't remember having a stop loss order in for PTEN. I did. -7.6%

Reversal alerts: (36) from the HLR script, (4) from the t2 script of which DMND, NKE, & ORCL are interesting. Of the other batch, SKH and GMCR might be of interest.

Familiar names AFL ANSS ARBA BWLD CELL CWTR FRPT HGSI IDCC IGY JWN PENN PX RDEN SIGA SKX SRCL STEI TRLG & WS appear. Note the number of retailers here.

Safety in the Sidelines

Out (or short) is the place to be. DNS -172, -41, -18.

Trades:

HCN hit its stop, -1.65%.

Value-sales port, +32.0%

That leaves me with shares of ARR, NLY, and PTEN, two of which are high yield REITs. I have options for JKS, PTEN and PTIE.

The value-sales portfolio fell to +32.0%.

Reversal alerts: (8). Those showing a profit are VMW, SIRI & JRJC.

Reprieve

That's one day without a sell-off. DNS +75, +9, +9.

Trades:

HCP hit the trailing stop, -1.92%.

TNP is the only shipper I track that hasn't been clobbered yet. So I shorted it with put options.

Reversals: (28). Filtered for sales and earnings growth and acceleration, lowest forward P/E first: TAL MENT GEO LH PAA HL & SIMO.

Cheaper By the Day

DNS -22, -26, -5.

Trades:

Visa took out the trailing stop, -0.89%.

Reversal alerts: Unfiltered. t2: MPX & QSII. hlr: AAP ATHN DRRX EBSB LOJN RDEN SEB & WES.

Couldn't Muster a Win

DNS -19, -1, -1.

Trades:

My last bit of STWD in a small account hit the trailing stop, -5.7%.

I moved three accounts into a holding pattern with REIT NLY, and bought shares for a larger account.

Reversal alerts: (37). Check out AEE and PHH.

Tankers to Tank

Here's an interesting Bloomberg piece for anyone watching FRO, NAT, SSW, ... ... ...

Frontline Billionaire Bets Tankers Collapsing

Everything Must Go!

It feels like a "Going-Out-of-Business" sale. You'll never see prices like this again! (At least until tomorrow.) DNS -61, -30, -14.

Trades: none.

Reversal alerts: (22)

Lots of regional banks stair-stepping down.

So far I like REIT IVR with a P/E below 6 and a 16.5% dividend. I need to dig deeper to find out why the stock price is bouncing around so much. It could be a good place to park some money (*).

PCP has modest sales and earnings growth and is holding up well. The reversal indicator is pretty sloppy though. The same is true of TIBX, except for the holding up well part.

BBNK is intriguing. Light volume, decent growth though the earnings estimates have been trimmed back. It's coming out of a nice T2 reversal pattern. Dangerous, but it looks like there might be a play here.

* NLY looks good in that respect too. We just missed the reversal, but it's got a 13.6% yield and better price movement.

Holding Their Own

Stocks within 10% of their peak, with significant earnings growth, and sales and earnings acceleration, ordered by forward P/E (descending): CRM QDEL LMNX GMCR ALXN EQIX VRSN ROSE HURC MSCI ARE DMND CVD ORIT VRTS VRNT AKRX STE MIC DAR CHRM XLE ENDP & DLLR.

I'm not saying I'd buy any of these here, but when the market turns positive they could well be the ones to take off first. Now might be the time to research them.

Pictures Say

Weekly Performance

Drawdown

 Here are the performance and drawdown charts from a simulation of the T2 chart script for 160 trading days run against a universe of 1628 select stocks.

Toxic

... is the word that comes to mind when I think about this market. DNS -97, -40.5, -13.

Trades:

REIT STWD hit the trailing stop, -8.8% (not including dividends). It just never got moving in the right direction. ARR definitely was the better pick of the two.

Value-sales port, +38.2%

I sold the VSH calls, -30.4%. VSH is reasonably priced but the growth factor has evaporated and apparently no one wants to own it now.

The value-sales portfolio has dropped to +38.2%.

Reversal alerts: (10). SORL is the only candidate here. Beat up and only maintaining (but not really growing) earnings and holding a P/E below 5. But sales have grown by double digits (18-36%) over the last three quarters and it's sporting a pretty good reversal pattern. Worth watchlisting but not much else in this market.

0.03 Steps Forward

... after three steps back. Not the way to catch up. DNS -41.6, +4, -1.6. I was glad to see that recent purchases ARR and PTEN fared well.

Trades:

EM shares hit the stop, -5.7%.

Reversal alerts: (1) ... junk.

Oops

DNS -280, -66, -31.

Trades:

ARR priced its secondary and the price dropped at the open. I canceled a stop loss order that probably would have kicked me out right at the bottom. It recovered some. I bought more shares. It moved up a bit higher from there.

Reversal alerts: (5). Airline stocks LCC and UAL showed up in the HLR scan probably because they didn't sell off as badly today as they usually do. DDE alerted again tonight in the T2 scan.