Wednesday, December 1, 2010

Didn't Expect This

DJIA +250, Naz +51, SnP +26. Now that's a nice turn-around. Hopefully tomorrow's news won't be all about collapsing economies and global conflicts.

If we really are at the early stages of an economic recovery, then I don't want to be out of the market. That's particularly true of energy, raw materials, and maybe transportation. There's no bear market in energy as BEXP, CRZO, DRQ, RES and WLL were hitting new highs again today.

Trades: I bought Jan $15 bull call spreads in ANR, CRZO, and RES. I converted my Dec VSEA calls to a bull call spread.

Reversal Alerts: 24.

ERES (c f) has been beaten up pretty badly, has weak analyst support, and it's earning estimates are mixed between being revised upward and downward. On the plus side, its P/E is falling from 33 to 20. Sales growth was accelerating ... +99% YoY mrq though it will hold steady next quarter. Earnings will nearly double in the next quarter as it's estimated to go from 6 cps (mrq) to 10 then 12 cents/share (+49% and +188% YoY). Something has positively influenced sales and earnings going forward.

However, this was an alert from the HLR script and it does not have a good record with predicting ERES moves. The T2 script shows horrible indicator symmetry as this stock has just continued to slide. There's been huge selling pressure here - maybe its warranted, or maybe there's a trade here. I'm going to watchlist it, and may try to catch a bounce. We're either ahead of the crowd here or the last to get the bad news.

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