Up Again

Another decent week. The value-sales port is up 20.4%.

Reversal alerts: (10) filtered down to UTSI FBC PQ GTXI CHL JJSF THS & ACV.

Seeing Red

at least that's what my watchlist looks like. Stocks from my watchlist bucking the trend with 3% gains or more are FLEX IDCC AMP JBL TSYS AMD KGC & DIOD.

Trades:
SKX tanked 18.2% today. I covered the short call (Jan spread). I'm hoping to sell the long call into some kind of rebound.

CSTR ($46.26) hit its 8% trailing stop (+6.9%). That leaves me with a Jan $39/44 bull call spread.

My limit orders went through for the CHK calls and stock, and the CRZO stock.

Reversal alerts: (16) filtered down to (11) by forward P/E (ascending)  DVN TESS CLX BLK BCH THS LGFI BRK SNH FHN & ORA.

CHK CRZO buy, SKX sell

I'm bidding on CRZO (c) stock, and stock and calls for CHK (c). CHK is moving up pre-market though.

I'm exiting SKX ... somehow.

SIMG?

Silicon Image, the inventor of the DVI, HDMI, and SATA audio video and data interfaces popped 35.8% today.

Why I asked? I just looked at them last week and saw a yearly loss of ($1.18)/share on a $4.62 stock. Revenues had been falling by double-digit percentages (-52, -40, -15%). There was a glimmer of hope in that the MRQ's sales were up 19.6%, and earnings were $0.02/share. Projected earnings were $0.05 and 0.03/share for the next two quarters. Whoop-tee-doo.

So today they announce quarterly earnings of $0.12/share (vs. 5c estimated) and revenue of $60M vs. 34-37, then $44.6M over the last year. So now they have a forward P/E of 12.9, just like everybody else. There's mention of back-royalties, so maybe their lawyers have hit pay dirt and opened up some revenue streams. The proverbial magic cow that laid the golden egg ... or something like that. :-) We'll see.

Don't get me wrong. I love their technology, and owned them when no one (I knew) knew what SATA was. But SIMG led me to coin the term "serial disappointer". They'd run good for a while, then blammo, all gone. I went on a cruise; they tanked 26% in one day. (That's a good reason to put [trailing] stop loss orders in before you go on vacation.) Somehow I managed to make some decent money when it was all done.

So call me skeptical and don't be surprised if I short SIMG. Or go long. I'm really just a little perplexed and need to round up a little more research.

Happy Hunting!

Addendum: Former Skeptic & MHL.

New Highs

Among the stocks hitting new 52-week highs today were BIDU, LCC, NFLX , NTAP and VSH. Oh yeah, I own these.

No trades.

After trailing down over the last few days some sectors/industries were caught an updraft and triggered reversal alerts A mix of financial, oil/oil services, and retail stocks. Sixteen total, 12 of which have a reasonable forward P/E. Best to worst in that respect were CHK WATG BK PBI LEG MW CRZO  BBT AVP COLM CKXE & COLB.

Near Misses

SBS and ASIA have gotten ahead of my limit orders so I'll wait for another opportunity to get in before they move up.

Reversal alerts: (t2) HRB, (hlr) FREED & IRIS. FREED is the third shipper to trigger a reversal alert in two days.

Riding the Wave

Trades: Can't stay away from YGE ($11.88 f c) here so I bought more stock to add to my Dec 10 calls. Triple digit earnings growth, a forward PE of 11.5, and rising earnings estimates. What's not to like?

I also have a low-ball limit order in for ASIA should it pull back a bit.

Reversal alerts: 19 pared down to 6 having a reasonable forward P/E. SOLF SBS FRO TNP CTRN THS.

SBS ($45.67 f c)  was a winner for me and has pulled back sharply from recent highs. Earnings estimates are holding steady and its forward P/E is 5.7. Earnings are positive but variable. Sales are steady and improving (MRQ was 9% YoY).

I'll probably buy stock and calls here if it seems to be getting its footing. The reversal chart has a good pattern and the script (t2) is 3 for 3 trades.

FRO and TNP are shippers. I'd wait for news of an improving economy. They also seem to track oil and steel (and probably other commodities) but break out quickly when good news hits. Others I track in the industry are EXM FREED NAT and PRGN.

Sort of Up Week

Trades: none.

Reversal alerts: (t2) REGN RMD, (hlr) GAN GRNB JDSA URBN. Nothing compelling here.

All my stocks (except sub-penny stock CBAI) are in positive territory. Three of my five Nov call spreads are well in the money; i.e., trading above the short call. The other two are in the money (vs. intrinsic value). I'm 7:1 for the month in stock trades (closed positions). I'm proceeding with cautious optimism.

The value-sales port rebounded to a 17.6% gain.

TSL Recap

My trailing stop loss orders are intended to take me out of the market and move me into cash when the markets turn south. Heeding the warning created by a salvo of TSLs firing off has served me well. But sometimes market volatility causes them to trigger as well. I'm capturing them here just to keep them in mind.

10/04 sold LOCM @ $4.01 (repurchased calls), now at $4.45
10/06 sold MSPD @ $7.45, now at $7.26
10/08 sold YGE @ $12.59 (repurchased calls), now at $11.62
10/15 sold PWER @ $10.08 (repurchased spread), now at $10.19
10/19 sold BEXP @ $19.51 (repurchased spread), now at $20.18
10/21 sold AEIS @ $13.67, now at $13.93

I also made "preemptive" sales of ATHR and VSEA to protect modest profit.

Big Fizzle

Trades: AEIS hit the trailing stop (+5.19%). The FMCN Jan spread buy order went through.

Reversal alerts: (t2) ABCB AMLN COST FBC SFI, (hlr) ABCB OPTC SKT SWS USG.

COST is too high here considering its modest growth. My pick is ASIA (f c) with good earnings growth though sales are a bit flat.

-VSEA, +FMCN, LOW

Sold VSEA stock (+2.4%).
Bought FMCN stock (pending spread order).
Bought Dec LOW calls.

And Back Up ...

DIA +129, Naz +20, SnP +12.

Trades: Bought Dec calls for YGE and LCOM. The plan is to sell near-the-money calls when we get closer to expiration. Bought a NTAP Nov $46/47 call spread.

NFLX is up big after-hours.

Reversal alerts: I ended up with 12 alerts. Most warrant further research.

Not What We Were Looking For

DIA -165, Naz -44, SnP -19. Ouch.

Trades: BEXP hit the 10% trailing stop (+7.15%) so I left a little too much on the table there. While that was selling I put in a bid for the Nov spread. I got that and PWER at a reduced bid - and still paid too much.
BEXP ($19.61) Nov 17/19 @ $1.35
PWER ($9.87) Nov 8/10 @ $1.45

Reversal Alerts: OCN and ASX, GMR. Pass.

Monday Shopping

A decent day today, DIA +81, Naz +12, SnP +8.5. Kind of a mixed bag for gainers/losers.

I got tired of waiting for ATHR to move up and decided to sell while I still had a small gain, stock +1.25%, call spread +9.47%. That of course got it moving in the right direction.

I bought some in the money Nov bull call spreads today.
COCO ($4.96) 4/5 for $0.57.
NFLX ($153) 135/140 for $3.50.
I still have a limit order in for PWER.

LOCM was up10% today.

Reversal alerts: INSP. Take a pass.

Relief

Nothing tanked going into the close, so that was good and the gains shown below held up. I'll be looking to buy some Nov call spreads next week.

Reversal alerts: CTSH and ANGO INSP RMD TACT & WRLD. Nothing I'd buy here. Most of the fundamentals are mediocre (at best) except for CTSH which is hitting new highs.

The value-sale port is now up +17.1%.
 

Here's my Stock Performance chart.

I ran a simulation with the t2 reversal script from early July. Here are the results.

PWER Down, GOOG Up

PWER has been selling off since an initial spike yesterday and hit the 10% trailing stop this morning (+15.4%).

GOOG is up 9.8% on earnings news. I'm not very bullish on GOOG but won't short it here either.

YGE continues to show strength with good growth and valuation.

YONG is heading into a period of lower earnings. I regret missing the run here, but I'm going to sit it out for a while.

LCOM still looks interesting, but I don't know what to make of the price activity. There doesn't seem to be much support for the stock.

Flat-liner

Not much going on today.

Trades: One leg (short call) of one of my Oct. VECO spreads was assigned so I had to cover the short position. I also did an "execute-and-sell" order on the long side because I was afraid the price would drop after yesterday's pop. VECO actually went up 65 cents before I pulled the trigger.+89.4% net, which was better than the 67% gain (less fees) for the spread without the price differential.

Remaining Oct. spreads for VECO and SBS expire tomorrow, probably at max value. (+82.7% and +76.7% (less fees) respectively.)

Reversal Alerts: None.

Rocket Fuel

Yep, that seems to be what this market is running on. I can't say I understand it, but if the market is going up, then the market is going up ... and that's all I need to know. The trailing stop loss orders do the rest. So far, only two of them fired off, and everything except b.c. spreads BRKS and SKX is profitable now - some are very much so.

Trades: My WATG ($10.17) Nov 7.50 calls (bought @ $2.10) had a nice pop today so I sold Nov 10 calls (sold for $1.20) to convert it to bullish call spread. That lowered my cost and break-even point, and raised my expected return and profits considerably.

Reversal alerts: t2 script BRCD CL PCLN ROG USMO. hlr script ASX CBAN CTXS RMBS.

The value-sales port continues to crank - now up 17.3%.
DIA +75, Naz +23, SnP +3.

CL & FLIR

were today's reversal alerts.

Monday Alerts

Some old names showed up as reversal alerts today today: AIB AMZN ELX and AMCC ANSS BRCD.

Interesting Week

Lots of ups and downs. Not sure of what to make of it otherwise.

Trades: My AMAT limit buy order went off in the morning. YGE hit the 10% trailing stop for a +10.2% gain. Limit orders for stock and bull call spreads in RES failed to connect before it pulled away. I really expected the market to end down because of the jobs report.

Reversal alerts: OSHC yesterday and STEC today.

The value-sales port is now up +14.26%.

Another Fun Day

MSPD hit its trailing stop. I bought stock and bull call spreads on ATHR (and paid too much).

Reversal alerts: EGBN.

And Up Again

DJIA +193 Naz +55 SnP +10.

I put in limit orders for AMAT- they missed.

Lots of reversal alerts today. Most are simply resuming a good run (high going higher).

I like ATHR (f c) here. Sequential and triple digit sales grow, strong earnings growth, good value. Chart-wise, it's coming off the bottom on a second and weaker (than the first) reversal alert. Second and third alerts tend to be fairly successful. The alert itself is weak, but that is probably because the fundamentals are strong enough to prevent the level of capitulation necessary for a strong reversal alert.

That's Dissappointing

We took a little pounding today. Sad to see some of the greens turning red.

LOCM hit the 10% trailing stop today.

Alerts: NCTY & VRX for the t2 script and OSHC & WBMD for the other.

So-So Week

Not much carry though from last Firday's rush. I did manage to get into a few good positions though ... and the rest will hit their 10% trailing stops soon enough (worst case).

Reversal alerts: KR SKYE & TGP.

The value-sales port nudged up for the week to a +11.89% gain.