Two Down, One Up

or is it three "down" days for every "up" day now? At least it makes it easy to pick out the leaders ... and you get a good entry point on the others when the selling is done.

Stocks from my watch list up over 10% in the last two weeks.

I'm just going to sit back and watch the trailing stops fire off. Other than kicking me out of some likely long term holdings I don't mind. It's better than watching gains disappear (or worse). "Hoping and praying" is not an investment strategy.

Trades: none.

Reversal alerts: 16. Nothing jumps out at me.

Sputtering Along

There was a drastic improvement before the close, but still down: -40 / -9 / -2.

Trades: I had hope for LGL. Good fundamentals, and it looked like it was coming out of a base, but it couldn't stay above the trailing stop so it's gone (-16.5%).  I tighten up the stops when the market gets dodgy. Keep the powder dry and we'll make up those losses when the market turns for the better.

That still leaves me with positions in BEXP BRKS CF CSTR CBAI FMCN OMG SKX VSEA VECO VSH and WLL. SKX is the only rotten apple in the group; I'm happy with the rest.

Reversal alerts: 12 of which only AMCC and DO were modestly interesting. AMCC could perhaps get to a P/E of 28 one day, and DO has good valuation unless you take the shrinking earnings and sales figures into consideration. Bleak prospects all.

I missed the value-sales portfolio report Friday, so here it is: up +27.5%.

Black Friday

The short post-Turkey Day session ended down -95 / -9 / -9 respectively.

Trades: WATG had looked like it might be turning around ... or not, so I put a 3% trailing stop loss in. It triggered Friday and sold the shares bought from the Nov. call. (-12.1%)

Reversal alerts: 17. TRCR (c f) has a P/E falling from 23.5 to 18, rising earnings estimates, 24% YoY sales growth mrq (decelerating), estimated earnings steady at 0.25 (mrq) then 0.25 and 0.26 cps which is 19, 37, and 84% growth YoY.

Cleaning House

If a stock can't go up on a day like today, it's time to get rid of it. DJIA +151, Naz +48, SnP +18.

Trades:
I sold my PWER shares left over from the repaired Nov. spread (+13.8% net after everything).

I sold my Dec. YGE calls (-69.6%).

I put in an "execute and sell" order on my LOCM calls since they were trading below intrinsic value (-35.1%).

I bought CF shares and calls.

Reversal alerts: 67 filtered down to 12 but none looked interesting.

Rough Tuesday

DJIA -142, Naz -37, SnP -17.

No trades today.

Reversal alerts: (14) filtered down to CF (c f) and ROK (c f). CF is strong here. Rising earnings estimates, P/E falling from 37 to 16, rising sales. Options available.

Post-Expiration Monday

Maybe it has happened before and I didn't notice. Two of my Dec. spread's limit orders sold at the open this morning. I'm guessing some spare cash from closing options had some buyers rolling into December options at the asking price. Cool.

Trades:
BEXP ($25.60) Dec. $17/19 bull call spread sold early (+39.1%).That left me with a $15/22.50 Jan. spread. The bid on these has been so low I went shopping and bought a Dec $22/27 spread for $2.85. Not a fire sale but hopefully good for 40% in 25 days.
DIOD sold early (+92.5%).

Reversal alerts: (41) filtered down to APWR NPO QSFT TRCR TG NNN HSII HCP QSII & GMCR. Many of the charts for the reversal stocks look good. Many had a good consolidation phase and there's good symmetry in the indicators.

Let's Play "Pummel the Expiring Options!"

Why do the issues you want to finish strong fizzle going into expiration week?

Trades:
Dec. bull call spread ANR sold early (+89.7%).

I sold Jan. bcs LCC (+14.2%) at a big discount to intrinsic value before the TSA controversy kills holiday air travel and the value of the spread. (The spread's value was always heavily discounted.)

Nov. call spread NTAP expired at full value (+26.6%). I normally aim for more gain but this was a for 30 day holding that opened 9% above the short call. Seemed like a good option for some spare cash.

For Nov. call spreads WATG and PWER, the upper, short calls expired worthless, leaving me to sell the stock at a later date. The returns now stand at (+11.1%) and (-13.9%) respectively given today's closing prices.


Reversal alerts: (t2) ACAS ACE ARBA AVT BKCC BRLI ED EMR FIS GR GRS NRF RGR RRST SLH & WST. (hlr) ABT ADM ASR CBK CUB CYT GEO ICUI MBI MNTA MU RMBS ROK SNPS & WHR.

The value-sales port is up +27.3%.