Sunday, February 12, 2012

Charts Trump Numbers

Here's my overdue update:

MSCC spiked down and plowed through the stop loss trigger before rebounding and moving higher. I went from a 12% or better gain to close out my shares at +0.3%. Sigh.

I picked up some more shares of ARR when their secondary dropped the price.

This week's downturn took out shares in ROSE (+7.1%), NWPX (+4.9%), and BAS (-0.1%) when the 6% trailing stops triggered.

I closed out some calls in BAS and MPEL for +46.3% and +13.0% respectively.

I converted Feb calls in BAS, GTE, and MPEL to call spreads which should yield around 31%, 56%, and 54% less commissions.

I have KEG Feb $10 calls, and just bought Mar $12.50 calls on the dip.

I decided to trim losers RES and MCHX after doubling down on them and ignoring what are now some pretty obvious indicators, -6.9% and -12.4% respectively. At least the second MCHX buy is up 6.7% after Friday's [dead cat?] bounce.

If you look at RES, PTEN, and MCHX you'll see estimates for strong double digit sales and earnings growth (YoY quarterly) and sequential earnings growth over the MRQ. But it hasn't mattered thus far. Winners keep winning, losers keep losing ... that's what the charts are saying.

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