Buying Opportunity

The indexes are up, but it felt like a losing day as everything came off of their morning highs. DNS +54, +3, +6.

Trades:

I put in my low bid limit orders hoping an intraday spike down might get me into some old favs. It turned out to be more of a steady decline than a spike, but I got what I wanted, except for the first day gains part.

I bought more shares of VRTS.

I bought call options for LVS, MCP, and PVH. As I recall, earnings estimates have been revised upward for these stocks recently.

Reversal alerts: (5), with WTW being of some interest.

Out of the Woods?

DNS +21, +14, 3.

I was hoping for a little pull-back here so I could pick up a few stocks that have gotten away from me. No luck there, but it does look like we've bottomed. Subject of course to bad news from Europe or on the economy.

MCP and HURC did well today. FHN dropped on FOMC comments, and VRTS got hit with a downgrade to market perform.

A number of shippers bounced today. FRO, EXM, and PRGN moved up 6% or more.

Trades: none.

Reversal alerts: (5), nothing interesting.

That's a Keeper

DNS +255, +82, +33.

I'm rather pleased with ROSE, RES, HUN, and FHN, all up 7% or more.

Trades: none.

Reversal alerts: (35).

NTGR has strong double digit quarterly YoY sales and earnings growth with a P/E falling from 14.9 to 11.5.

VIT is a little weaker with around 30% sales growth and more sporadic earnings growth, and the P/E falling from 16.7 to 14.6.

FCFS has double digit sales and earnings growth, P/E falling from 21.8 to 19.6.

SPPI has very strong earnings growth (> 269% for the last three quarters). Earnings are sporadic.

Some more stocks with generally good sales growth and sequential earnings growth projected: ININ, CVLT, LOGM, and SIMG.

Estimated Growth Review

I reviewed my portfolio against Y!Fin's estimates this morning. Y!'s data seems to be lagging, but I was mostly looking for sales estimates.

This table shows the quarterly YoY sales growth (in percent) estimates for the next two quarters, and the minimum estimated quarterly YoY EPS growth.

Ticker	Est Sales Gr.	Est. EPS Gr.	Forward P/E
SPRD	83, 42	56, 3%	7.3
ARR	> 270	--	7.9
CPX	42, 34	> 78%	9.6
PTEN	72, 43	> 95%	10.2
FHN	60, 65	> 121%	12.9
HURC	75, 30	> 333%	17.3
VRTS	21, 13	> 143%	21.0
ROSE	50, 54	> 246%	21.8
TIBX	19, 15	> 52%	26.5
MCP	1800, 792	> 558%	27.4

Other observations were that NLY's sales are declining sequentially and basically flat YoY which may make ARR a better REIT option. HUN and TW aren't as compelling as they were. I may look to exit these positions.

I hadn't taken the time to look up FHN's sales estimates before, so that was a pleasant surprise which supports their earnings growth estimates.

More to Come?

We finally had a good week. DNS +135, +60, 18.

Trades:

None today. I've totally missed PVH and have to give up until it pulls back.

I missed the low this morning for VRTS. At least I was able to get back into it yesterday.

The biggest gainer in my portfolio was RBCN. Yep, the only one I'm short on.

UA investors had an interesting day.

Portfolios:

The value-sales portfolio recovered to +6.02% return. The ESG portfolio recovered to a -16.8% return, and a third stock (of 37) is above water.

Reversal alerts: (6), all junk.

Disappointing

It didn't take long for the nice start to fizzle out. DNS -171, -48, -18. It finished a lot lower than I expected. AAPL finished higher than I expected.

Trades:

Once the market's direction became apparent, I put in my low-ball limit orders. They all filled, and could have been priced lower. I re-bought VRTS shares, and bought call options for FHN and JBHT.

Reversal alerts: (3), nothing interesting.

Arms in the Air

... for this roller coaster ride. DNS +144, +22, +15.

Trades:

VRTS just clipped my trailing stop loss order and sold at the post-open intraday low, +5.18%. Not optimum, but flipping a stock for 5% in a day isn't the worst thing either. I was protecting my profit. It wasn't supposed to get that low, and now it's gone. These sales frequently turn out to be a good thing when the stock moves lower the next day.

I bought put options on RBCN because I'm mad at it.

I bought call options for RES ... it's one of my oil patch stocks. Maybe Cramer's Bakken special will spill over into RES (pardon the pun) when folks start looking for good oil and gas plays. I got it on a limit buy for less than its current intrinsic value.

I tried to get back into PVH but couldn't get my price.

Reversal alerts: (8). Theses are from the t2 script ...

CS and MALL have some decent earnings expectations. MALL actually has some modest YoY quarterly sales growth (~15%). They're value priced with a forward P/E of 5.7 and 7.7 respectively. CS is showing a 15.2% buy-side bias by institutions holding 4.1% of the float.

FNH has triple-digit earnings growth for three of the last four quarters, and next two estimated quarters. YoY quarterly sales growth is a -6% (so it's not really growth, is it?). The P/E is dropping from 71 to 12.2. Earnings estimates have been nudged upward within the last seven days. Institutions hold 82.6% of FHN's float, with a 2.4% buy-side bias.

There's no risk of these hitting a 52-week high anytime soon.

What Does It All Mean?

I'm eager to see what tomorrow brings ... more cautious buying or continued selling? DNS +322, +101, +39.

The rally was pretty broad. I don't see any theme, other than some money coming out of silver and gold (today anyway). Some old favorites made a move off of the bottom, CMG and LULU. PVH and UA were a day off their lows.

Trades:

I closed out the remainder of yesterday's CVI calls (+0.88%) and the called shares (+131.9%) from the expired spread. I decided to transition out of CVI quickly because there are better candidates that I want to own, and I'm at risk of being overweight in oil stocks. Now I have more cash for positions in other sectors.

I sold SPRD shares (+1.21%) that were just purchased Friday in favor of call options bought today. Again I'm opting for leveraged gains with lower cost options rather than stock. I might die trying, but it's worked one day so far! :-)

I bought VRTS shares (no options available).

Reversal alerts: (11), nothing interesting.

Breakout Fizzle

I don't know that I've seen so much pre-market enthusiasm end so so-so. At least we ended up for the day. DNS +37, +3.5, +0.29.

Trades:

I posted a few closing trades earlier.

I managed to let go of the FMCN shares near the top, but I held onto CVI too long. Instead of selling the called shares above $25 like I'd hoped, I got greedy and waited for the inevitable rebound as it drifted lower. I ended up losing that 1% pop plus another 5.8% by the close. Still waiting for my price ...

With CVI down 6% I bought some call options. Then I decided that I really wanted CPX ... or PTEN ... or RES ... or ROSE instead (my "oil patch" stocks below). Some of the calls sold (+1.9%) but I have a few more that didn't hit their limit price.

My strategy is to scale in with call options, so I bought some call options for CPX, PTEN, and ROSE when their limit orders filled. There's risk that the recession will further reduce demand, and that Libyan oil coming back on-line could depress crude oil prices. We'll know soon.

VRTS is moving again, and CF is running well.

Reversal alerts:

The hlr script yielded (5) stocks, APEI was the most interesting with decent numbers and earnings estimates revised upward recently.

The t2 script yielded (12) stocks. We've got VRTS which has accelerating sales growth (now at 40%) over the last three quarters, and triple-digit earnings growth and a forward P/E of 18.4. I have no doubt that former investors (like me) will move back into VRTS.

There there's XXIA which is kind of a mixed bag but with rising sales and earnings, forward P/E of 19.6. The reversal indicators look okay, but the stock has been on a consistent decline.

Shifting Gears

I sold the puts: CPX (+17.3%), MPC (+12.9%), & ROSE (+42.4%). Not bad for two trading days.

I sold the FMCN shares garnered from the expired options spread, +58.0%.

August Options

My speculative play on NFLX competitor CSTR bombed. I started out with an ITM bull call spread that tanked the next day or two, and continued to s[t]ink from there. What a miserable stock. Fortunately it was an undersized position. -100%.

I have called shares from a $20/25 CVI spread and a $22/29 FMCN spread. Both upper (short) calls went OTM the day before expiration, but I still have a decent profit. Maybe we'll have a nice rebound on Monday and I can sell those shares above those strikes and make more moolah than the spreads would have. Be on the lookout for flying pigs too.

4 in a Row

This makes the fourth straight "down" week for the DJI30 and S&P500 indexes, and down 5 of the last 6 weeks. DNS -173, -39, -17.

Trades:
I bought PTEN and SPRD shares during the morning's suckers ' rally.

Portfolios:
The value-sales port is now almost back to even since inception, +1.16%. The new ESG port is down, -29.9% with only 2 of 37 stocks above water. That's pretty brutal.

Reversal alerts: (8) hlr script, (4) t2 script.

Can't Stay Out

I bought shares of PTEN (bottom fishing) and SPRD (speculating).

Abandon Ship!

It's never good to look over the side and see an inbound torpedo. That's how I felt before the open this morning. DNS -420, -131, -53.

Trades:
I bought protective puts for my shares except HURC (no options), AAPL, and REITs NLY and ARR. I let the long options ride.

Yes, I'm sticking with the wreckage. I hope it turns out better for me than that guy in Titanic. :-)

Reversal alerts: (1) hlr script, (1) t2 script.

Up, By a Hair

DNS +4, -12, +1. Debatable given the Nasdaq's performance. Certainly not one for the record books.

Trades: see below for the ROSE buy and sale of LVS and NLY calls.

One encouraging note: 13 of my 15 positions are up for the week, and the other two would have been with an even finish today. Up 8% or more are CVI, HUN, WPRT, ROSE, and MCP.

Out of the general watchlist, up nicely today were PLAB (+28.8%) on a strong earnings report, and IDCC after some buyout rumors following the Google-Motorola Mobility announcement yesterday.

Reversal alerts: (8) hlr script, (18) t2 script.

Digging in the Oil Patch

I just looked at ROSE, BEXP, CWEI, CVI, CPX, PTEN, RES, WLL, XLE and EOG.

I'm looking for strong sequential sales and earnings growth, with rising earnings estimates and a good valuation (P/E). In order of lowest forward P/E ...

CPX - (9) quarters of sequential sales growth [SSG] (the max given my data of past two years and estimates for two quarters out), (8) Qs of sequential earnings growth [SEG], double and triple digit sales and earnings growth, P/E falling from 14.4 to 10.4, eps estimates raised 30 days ago [30d] and 7 days ago [7d] (see Y!Fin estimates).

RES - 9QSSG, 9QSEG, double and triple-digit YoY sales and earnings growth, P/E falling from14.8 to 11.2, eps estimates revised upward 30d and 7d.

PTEN - 9QSSG, 8QSEG, triple and high double-digit YoY growth, P/E falling from 17.3 to 11.4, eps estimates up 30d and 7d.

ROSE - 6QSSG, 4QSEG, triple-digit YoY earnings growth, double-digit YoY sales growth, P/E falling from 56.4 to 24.4, eps estimates up 7d and current.

Here are my tables.

I just bought ROSE call options and stock. I can't say that ROSE is the best of the bunch. I already own CPX shares, and wouldn't mind owing RES and PTEN again.

Cash Conversion Market

I'm continuing with the selling theme.

Trades:

I sold my September LVS calls, +41.6%. There were options to do a spread conversion, potentially for more gain, or to sell calls at my cost and freeroll for the profit with a deep ITM spread, or even take some of the profit and leave a deep ITM $2 or $3 spread. I opted to take the money and run.

I sold my October NLY calls, +2.9%. Given the 14.25% dividend, NLY trades rather flat anyway.

That leave my options account 2/3 in cash, and my main brokerage account 50% in cash. That and other accounts are loaded up with high yield REITs NLY and ARR (19.1% dividend, paid monthly).

Planning for More Downside

There was no getting away from a bad open this morning, and I decided to plan for more of the same. DNS -77, -32, -12.

Trades:

My plan was to lighten up on my best picks and plan to re-enter at a better price, and to sell off weaker holdings.

I sold 1/3 of my MCP holdings, -11.75%. I figured it was due to give back some of its recent gains, and I want to add more at a lower price.

I sold both of my HUN positions, -29.0% and -3.5%. Recent gains coupled with declining sales and institutional selling made it a sell.

I sold all of my PVH shares,-2.7%. There's some institutional selling but mostly I expect it to drop and I can get a better entry price.

Reversal alerts: (7) hlr script, (16) t2 script.

No Trust

That's three "up" days. I wish I could trust the markets to continue their recovery into options expiration this Friday ... but I can't. DNS +214, +47, +26.

Trades:

I sold the AAPL call options, +5.9%. That's not quite the return I look for in an options trade but last week took me down far enough that breaking even seemed like a good outcome. With no margin for error, I booked the win. Still not bad for 10 days I guess.

I then bought AAPL shares. How often do you get to buy AAPL with a forward P/E of 12.6 while it's got strong double or triple-digit growth?

I had way too many MCP call options about to expire between the strike prices leaving me on the hook for a bunch of shares, so I opted to sell the call spread, +10.6%.

GG was down and seemed to be losing traction, so I sold that spread too, +38.8%.

I didn't see me turning a profit in the DAR call spread, so I opted to minimize the loss on an "up" day, -17.7%.

I sold calls to convert FMCN to a bull call spread (well ITM).

That leaves just bull call spreads CVI (well ITM) and CSTR (OTM) as my only other August options.

Portfolios:

(33)  of (37) stocks in the ESG port were up for the day. All (17) traded stocks in the value-sales port were up.

Reversal alerts: (55) hlr script, (88) t2 script.

Growth Prospects

These stocks have substantial growth estimates for both earnings and sales. Lowest forward P/E first: CDE, ZAGG, OAS, and MCP.

Tough Sledding

It's not just our imagination. Here's the results from a WealthLab simulation using the t2 script.

Weekly performance:

 Monthly performance:

Two "Up" Days

That's encouraging. DNS +126, +15, +6.

Watchlisters up 10% or more for the week are RES, WFR, CF, SKH, ARUN, CVI, IDCC, PTIE, and ZAGG.

Trades: none.

Just putting in limit sell order for calls (to close or convert to bull call spreads).

Portfolios:

The ESG portfolio is down, -14.9% with only one of (37) stocks above water.

The value-sales portfolio dropped to a +10.4% return for the week, but it rebounded from 2.x% earlier this week.

Reversal alerts:  (41) hlr script, (46) t2 script.

Nice Start

Should we hope for two "up" days in a row? DNS +423, +112, +52.

35 of 37 stocks in the ESG port are up today. All traded positions (17) in the value-sales port are up today. All of my positions are up for the day, but only three positions are up for the 2-week and 1-month periods, so there's still plenty of digging out to do.

Trades: none:

Reversal alerts: (125) hlr script, (89) t2 script.

Back Down

... just not quite as bad. DNS -520, -101, -52.

Trades: none.

Reversal alerts: (304) hlr script, (37) t2 script.

DJIA +430

I never thought I'd be posting under that heading after yesterday's decline. DNS +430, +125, +53.

Trades: none.

Reversal alerts: hlr script: 394, t2 script: 44. That's from a universe of 1597 stocks.

DJIA -635

DNS -635, -175, -80.

Trades:

Looking ahead I don't like the prospects for oil related stocks with oil dropping to $81. I sold my CVI shares early today, -22.2%. That's way more than I'm used to losing on an equity position. I should have cut CPX loose too, but didn't. It's down 15% for the day.

Reversal alerts: (22).

I'd say if you have something you like, get ready to buy it when the smoke starts to clear. You don't need a reversal signal here to help you find good stocks coming out of a slump in a good market. It would be nice of you did, but that's certainly not the case lately.

Tough Week

Quite a roller coaster day. DNS +61, -24, -1.

Trades:

CMG hit the trailing stop, +5.0%.

I ditched RBCN based on their earnings report and the open. Of course it rallied like a champ afterwards. -28.1%

I bought AAPL call options.

Portfolio Updates:

Last year's value-sales portfolio plummeted to a level of +11.8% for 53 weeks after being up over 50% at one point.

The ESG portfolio got hammered in the first few minutes of its life when SKH tanked. SKH is now down 48% and the portfolio itself is at -12.8% after one week. All but 3 of the 37 stocks are down for the week ... the gainers were CHRM, SNCR, and GOLD.

Reversal alerts: (57).

(5) from the more reliable t2 script of which MCHX and HANS pop out.

How Bad Was It?

Some observations ...

Of my (19) stocks where I have equity or option positions, NONE are up for the day, 2-week, or one month periods. Only the two REITs are up for the week (0.1% and 1.0%).

The ESG portfolio is 1 for 37 today, the value-sales portfolio is 0 for 18.

Worst Day Ever

I have to say I don't think I've ever taken a hit like this. Not so much because of the market's move, but because I am so heavily invested and exposed. I didn't see a reason to panic here, and still don't. I tried to take advantage of it and it has cost me.

I still have one more trailing stop loss order in for CMG. Except for PVH, where the tsl order didn't execute correctly, the other positions are new after I plowed the cash for earlier stop loss sales into them. Oopsies. Unless my perception of the situation changes, I plan to hold tight and catch the rebound that will come. Lets hope that capitulation occurs quickly.

I suspect that tomorrow morning will probably be pretty ugly after everyone gets home tonight and checks their portfolios and 401(k)s. The towels will go in tomorrow. Mutual fund redemptions will follow. The remaining stop loss orders will avalanche.

DNS -513, -137, -60.

Trades:

My play on HUN didn't quite work out when it dropped 25% off the bat. It started recovering so I bought some calls on it. Later a low-ball limit order filled since it dropped 30.5% for the day. Good pick, eh?

CMI calls were sold, -31.6%.

VRTS and TW shares hit their trailing stops; +8.8%, -5.3% respectively.

Reversal alerts: (57). Most seem to be false positives from the hlr script. The reversal scripts don't fare well in a falling market.

Two Steps Forward

... after yesterday's six steps back. DNS +30, +24, +6.

Trades:

My speculative options play on BRKR's earnings report went horribly wrong. They ended down 8.6% for the day. -37.1% There goes some play money I don't get to play with anymore. :-)

I sold my LFUS calls (-54.1%) as they seemed the least likely to rebound and I wanted some cash for a ...

... GG bull call spread. I was looking at 79% unrealized gain (less comms.) until it fell below $49.

I bought a bull call spread for MCP too.

That leaves me with (5) bull call spreads and one call (FMCN) for August expiration. C'mon rally!

Reversal alerts: (18).

These are based on value (forward P/E) and growth, but the charts are generally horrible. You may want to add them to your watchlist though: STEC, ENSG, NS (was Valero), NTAP, APEI (good chart), and PLCM.

Exit Only

It feels like I'm going against traffic here. Charging into the stampede. Buying when I should be mostly in cash already.

It's like a high risk "Genius/Moron Play" in poker. You're a genius if you win, and a moron otherwise. I have a bad feeling it might not be the former. DNS -266, -75, -33. Wow.

Trades:

MCP stock and BRKR calls as noted below.

AMG hit the stop, -2.5%.

Reversal alerts: (18).

GG has a decent reversal pattern,  rising estimates, and Cramer's blessing (gold). 60% YoY quarterly sales growth.

CRM alerted but I can't go for a stock with a forward P/E above 200. They report Aug 17.

DRIV and RVBD had good growth expectations based on the estimates. But judging from the charts, I'd say they missed 'em.

MCP & BRKR

I bought call options for BRKR hoping for a good earnings report.

MCP stock bought.

Bruker Corporation (BRKR)

EPS Growth Prev Yr Past Yr Growth P/E 0.08 0.14 75.0% - 0.10 0.17 70.0% - 0.27 0.18 -33.3% - 0.10 0.07 -30.0% 31.3 Next Two Quarters (est) 0.14 0.21 49.3% 27.38 0.17 0.23 34.7% 25.03

Sales Growth Prev Yr Last Yr Growth 252.5 300.9 19.2% 265.1 310.2 17.0% 366.4 416.1 13.6% 277.7 357.0 28.6%

Molycorp Inc. (MCP)

EPS Growth Prev Yr Past Yr Growth P/E -0.18 -0.47 -161.1% - -0.18 -0.15 16.7% - -0.22 -0.10 54.5% - -0.16 -0.03 81.3% Next Two Quarters (est) -0.47 0.44 193.0% 405.29 -0.15 0.64 528.0% 67.05

Sales Growth Prev Yr Last Yr Growth 1.2 1.9 58.3% 2.0 8.5 325.0% 2.2 21.7 886.4% 3.0 26.3 776.7%

Earnings Calendar (Aug)

Today: VRTS, after
Wednesday: BRKR (before), CVI (?)
Thursday: HUN (before), LFUS (before), RBCN (after)

Aug 11: DAR (?), MCP (after)
Aug 22: FMCN

Pffft

DNS -11, 12, -5.

Trades: Listed below.

Reversal alerts: (23).

A growth screen yields LFL & CLB.

KNL, LUV, & JBHT are also interesting.

Most of these are pretty beat up. I'm not going to read too much into the chart patterns given the market dynamics.

That Was a Short Rally

Wow. Some days it doesn't pay to get out of bed before noon.

What to Buy?

Tough decisions. Buy orders for stock in CPX, CVI, HUN, and HURC have filled. Done buying for the day.

SKH fell hard this morning - a rough start for the ESG portfolio.