Not much enthusiasm for the Fed's plan I guess. DNS -284, -52, -35.
Trades: none.
Reversal alerts: (4), all on the HLR script, not the more reliable T2 script.
LIWA is a Chinese copper alloy wire producer with triple digit sales growth and strong double digit earnings growth and a P/E of 3.3 and falling. There's a recent Buy recommendation and generally rising estimates. Only one analyst is covering it. With this low a multiple, there is obviously some skepticism with regard to the numbers. Research it. SCCO for comparison has comparable earnings grow, weaker sales growth, and a forward P/E of 10.5.
Wednesday, September 21, 2011
Tuesday, September 20, 2011
Gessed Right?
Maybe I sold at the right time. We'll know before long. DNS +8, -23, -2.
Trades:
AAPL shares hit the trailing stop and sold.
I sold the last of the calls for MCP, PTEN, and JBHT.
That leaves me with GLD, ARR, and NLY shares.
I also have call options for CPX, LVS, PVH, FHN, and SMS. Not that I'm particularly bullish on these ... just that I haven't gotten the price I want.
Reversal alerts: (2), junk.
Trades:
AAPL shares hit the trailing stop and sold.
I sold the last of the calls for MCP, PTEN, and JBHT.
That leaves me with GLD, ARR, and NLY shares.
I also have call options for CPX, LVS, PVH, FHN, and SMS. Not that I'm particularly bullish on these ... just that I haven't gotten the price I want.
Reversal alerts: (2), junk.
Monday, September 19, 2011
Tired of This Ride
That was a nice recovery. Too bad it had to tank first. DNS -108, -9, -12.
Watchlisters closing up 3% or more were CMG, LULU, GTLS, LVS, SPRD, RES, ZAGG, and FMCN.
Trades:
A bad open coupled with a bad attitude lead me to sell almost everything this morning. I just had a feeling that we were going to give back last week's gains over the course of this week (and next week, and the next week).
I sold all of my equity positions except AAPL, ARR, NLY, and GLD when tight trailing stop loss orders (based on Friday's close) triggered.
I sold most of my call options, including the big winners like SPRD and WPRT. ROSE, RES, CPX, MCP, PVH, and LVS weren't spared either.
Reversal alerts: (1), junk.
Watchlisters closing up 3% or more were CMG, LULU, GTLS, LVS, SPRD, RES, ZAGG, and FMCN.
Trades:
A bad open coupled with a bad attitude lead me to sell almost everything this morning. I just had a feeling that we were going to give back last week's gains over the course of this week (and next week, and the next week).
I sold all of my equity positions except AAPL, ARR, NLY, and GLD when tight trailing stop loss orders (based on Friday's close) triggered.
I sold most of my call options, including the big winners like SPRD and WPRT. ROSE, RES, CPX, MCP, PVH, and LVS weren't spared either.
Reversal alerts: (1), junk.
Friday, September 16, 2011
Up Every Day This Week
I would never have bet money on that. DNS +76, +15, +7.
Watchlisters catching my eye are AMZN, EBAY, and ATHN, particularly since they are positive for every performance period in my performance chart. Old fav FMCN has been coming back. The beatings continued for NFLX and the solar energy cos (JKS, YGE, & JASO).
Trades: No limit orders filled. Not chasing, especially after (5) up days.
I wish I'd waited 'til after Monday morning to close out some of my options, but I can honestly say I didn't see this week's gains coming.
Portfolios:
You'd probably guess that they improved and you'd be right. The ESG port has (5) stocks above water and improved to -14.56%. The value-sales port is up to +7.68% gain for a year and change.
I intended to retire the value-sales port soon after introducing the (37) stock ESG port, but the ESG port got clobbered right off the bat, and the value-sales port provided some continuity and a point of reference though the sell-off. The ESG port will be positive before you know it!
Reversal alerts: (5).
I like the reversal pattern for HURN, and the modest sales growth and P/E dropping from 32.6 to 18 don't hurt.
HMX has some growth, a bad chart, and a P/E dropping from 8 to 6.
CFX has better growth (YoY quarterly sales growth has accelerated to 52%), triple digit earning growth for this and the next two quarters and a P/E falling from 32.5 to 20.7.
Watchlisters catching my eye are AMZN, EBAY, and ATHN, particularly since they are positive for every performance period in my performance chart. Old fav FMCN has been coming back. The beatings continued for NFLX and the solar energy cos (JKS, YGE, & JASO).
Trades: No limit orders filled. Not chasing, especially after (5) up days.
I wish I'd waited 'til after Monday morning to close out some of my options, but I can honestly say I didn't see this week's gains coming.
Portfolios:
You'd probably guess that they improved and you'd be right. The ESG port has (5) stocks above water and improved to -14.56%. The value-sales port is up to +7.68% gain for a year and change.
I intended to retire the value-sales port soon after introducing the (37) stock ESG port, but the ESG port got clobbered right off the bat, and the value-sales port provided some continuity and a point of reference though the sell-off. The ESG port will be positive before you know it!
Reversal alerts: (5).
I like the reversal pattern for HURN, and the modest sales growth and P/E dropping from 32.6 to 18 don't hurt.
HMX has some growth, a bad chart, and a P/E dropping from 8 to 6.
CFX has better growth (YoY quarterly sales growth has accelerated to 52%), triple digit earning growth for this and the next two quarters and a P/E falling from 32.5 to 20.7.
Thursday, September 15, 2011
Confidence Returns?
Another nice day from start to finish (mostly). DNS +186, +35, +20.
NFLX and ZAGG took a hit.
Trades: None of my limit order filled, so nothing new.
Reversal alerts: (23).
I see a lot of familiar names here: BKS, USG, YGE, JPM, JASO, CCM, CHRM, MOH, DE, SAM, VDSI, LOGI, and BGG. But P/Es are flat or even rising for some of these.
CCM, MOH, and DE have decent sales growth, but earnings are basically flat. CHRM is the only one with any growth.
Charm Comminications.cn:
NFLX and ZAGG took a hit.
Trades: None of my limit order filled, so nothing new.
Reversal alerts: (23).
I see a lot of familiar names here: BKS, USG, YGE, JPM, JASO, CCM, CHRM, MOH, DE, SAM, VDSI, LOGI, and BGG. But P/Es are flat or even rising for some of these.
CCM, MOH, and DE have decent sales growth, but earnings are basically flat. CHRM is the only one with any growth.
Charm Comminications.cn:
| EPS Growth | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Prev Yr | Past Yr | Growth | P/E |
| 0.10 | 0.14 | 40.0% | - |
| -0.13 | 0.14 | 207.7% | - |
| 0.10 | 0.10 | 0.0% | - |
| 0.12 | 0.14 | 16.7% | 18.2 |
| Next Two Quarters (est) | |||
| 0.14 | 0.33 | 135.7% | 13.03 |
| 0.14 | 0.40 | 185.7% | 9.50 |
| Sales Growth | ||
|---|---|---|
| Prev Yr | Last Yr | Growth |
| 75.4 | 48.4 | -35.8% |
| 30.6 | 56.7 | 85.3% |
| 42.0 | 62.3 | 48.3% |
| 45.3 | 67.3 | 48.6% |
Wednesday, September 14, 2011
The Oddest Thing Happened
The markets went up for the third straight day. Hard to believe, eh? DNS +141, +40, +16.
Of the day's top ten performers, 9 of the 10 aren't in any other period's top ten list. #1 SIMG was, but its 14.3% gain got it into the one and two week top ten lists. The stronger leaders seemed to take the day off, coming in with modest gains or very modest losses. Only SMTC, FCFS, and YONG were in the +4.5% range.
Trades:
I bought call options on SMS, my little fast action steel play. I've followed SMS since it was MTLM, and when there's a little good news, this guy runs up fast. There's no meaningful coverage of it, so I won't recommend it. I bought December calls with almost no time premium, and for less than the intrinsic value at the close.
Reversal alerts: (17).
Those with some earnings and sales growth, lowest forward P/E first: UNTK, PRAA, LOJN, TSU, TRCR, and ANR. These charts aren't pretty. UNTK and TSU have the best reversal patterns.
Of the day's top ten performers, 9 of the 10 aren't in any other period's top ten list. #1 SIMG was, but its 14.3% gain got it into the one and two week top ten lists. The stronger leaders seemed to take the day off, coming in with modest gains or very modest losses. Only SMTC, FCFS, and YONG were in the +4.5% range.
Trades:
I bought call options on SMS, my little fast action steel play. I've followed SMS since it was MTLM, and when there's a little good news, this guy runs up fast. There's no meaningful coverage of it, so I won't recommend it. I bought December calls with almost no time premium, and for less than the intrinsic value at the close.
Reversal alerts: (17).
Those with some earnings and sales growth, lowest forward P/E first: UNTK, PRAA, LOJN, TSU, TRCR, and ANR. These charts aren't pretty. UNTK and TSU have the best reversal patterns.
Tuesday, September 13, 2011
A Real "Up" Day
DNS +45, +37, +11.
Lots of stuff was up with the losers down modestly, except maybe CVI and IDCC. My WPRT calls nudged up with the stock rising 11.3%. EXM, CIEN, ATHN, CMI, and GTLS stand out too.
Trades:
This morning I'm looking at some of my stocks, SPRD, CPX, PTEN, FHN, ROSE, LVS, MCP and I'm seeing earnings estimate being revised upward, not downward, and sales estimates that exceed the MRQ and show substantial growth from a year ago. Then I see so many that were recovering then got knocked down again. But not to where they were, but down to a trendline along the bottoms that looked like it could actually be rising. That in my opinion is not the time to sell, but the time to buy. At the risk of throwing good money after bad ...
I bought call options on MCP and CPX for two accounts.
Reversal alerts: (37), but most get filtered out very quickly.
Honestly, the only one of interest to me is VRTS which I already own. Sales growth has accelerated for the last four quarters from 17.1% to 40.5% though sales are estimated to level off. YoY quarterly earnings growth has been in the high triple digits (512.5% MRQ) but is estimated to fall to 128.2% and 138.8% for the next two quarters, but still significantly higher sequentally. The P/E will drop from 35.4 to 19.6.
Lots of stuff was up with the losers down modestly, except maybe CVI and IDCC. My WPRT calls nudged up with the stock rising 11.3%. EXM, CIEN, ATHN, CMI, and GTLS stand out too.
Trades:
This morning I'm looking at some of my stocks, SPRD, CPX, PTEN, FHN, ROSE, LVS, MCP and I'm seeing earnings estimate being revised upward, not downward, and sales estimates that exceed the MRQ and show substantial growth from a year ago. Then I see so many that were recovering then got knocked down again. But not to where they were, but down to a trendline along the bottoms that looked like it could actually be rising. That in my opinion is not the time to sell, but the time to buy. At the risk of throwing good money after bad ...
I bought call options on MCP and CPX for two accounts.
Reversal alerts: (37), but most get filtered out very quickly.
Honestly, the only one of interest to me is VRTS which I already own. Sales growth has accelerated for the last four quarters from 17.1% to 40.5% though sales are estimated to level off. YoY quarterly earnings growth has been in the high triple digits (512.5% MRQ) but is estimated to fall to 128.2% and 138.8% for the next two quarters, but still significantly higher sequentally. The P/E will drop from 35.4 to 19.6.
| EPS Growth | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Prev Yr | Past Yr | Growth | P/E |
| -0.14 | 0.39 | 378.6% | - |
| 0.09 | 0.49 | 444.4% | - |
| 0.03 | 0.48 | - | - |
| -0.08 | 0.33 | 512.5% | 35.4 |
| Next Two Quarters (est) | |||
| 0.39 | 0.89 | 128.2% | 26.35 |
| 0.49 | 1.17 | 138.8% | 19.55 |
| Sales Growth | ||
|---|---|---|
| Prev Yr | Last Yr | Growth |
| 30.4 | 35.6 | 17.1% |
| 33.3 | 40.7 | 22.2% |
| 33.4 | 44.1 | 32.0% |
| 34.8 | 48.9 | 40.5% |
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