I just looked at ROSE, BEXP, CWEI, CVI, CPX, PTEN, RES, WLL, XLE and EOG.
I'm looking for strong sequential sales and earnings growth, with rising earnings estimates and a good valuation (P/E). In order of lowest forward P/E ...
CPX - (9) quarters of sequential sales growth [SSG] (the max given my data of past two years and estimates for two quarters out), (8) Qs of sequential earnings growth [SEG], double and triple digit sales and earnings growth, P/E falling from 14.4 to 10.4, eps estimates raised 30 days ago [30d] and 7 days ago [7d] (see Y!Fin estimates).
RES - 9QSSG, 9QSEG, double and triple-digit YoY sales and earnings growth, P/E falling from14.8 to 11.2, eps estimates revised upward 30d and 7d.
PTEN - 9QSSG, 8QSEG, triple and high double-digit YoY growth, P/E falling from 17.3 to 11.4, eps estimates up 30d and 7d.
ROSE - 6QSSG, 4QSEG, triple-digit YoY earnings growth, double-digit YoY sales growth, P/E falling from 56.4 to 24.4, eps estimates up 7d and current.
Here are my tables.
I just bought ROSE call options and stock. I can't say that ROSE is the best of the bunch. I already own CPX shares, and wouldn't mind owing RES and PTEN again.
Wednesday, August 17, 2011
Cash Conversion Market
I'm continuing with the selling theme.
Trades:
I sold my September LVS calls, +41.6%. There were options to do a spread conversion, potentially for more gain, or to sell calls at my cost and freeroll for the profit with a deep ITM spread, or even take some of the profit and leave a deep ITM $2 or $3 spread. I opted to take the money and run.
I sold my October NLY calls, +2.9%. Given the 14.25% dividend, NLY trades rather flat anyway.
That leave my options account 2/3 in cash, and my main brokerage account 50% in cash. That and other accounts are loaded up with high yield REITs NLY and ARR (19.1% dividend, paid monthly).
Trades:
I sold my September LVS calls, +41.6%. There were options to do a spread conversion, potentially for more gain, or to sell calls at my cost and freeroll for the profit with a deep ITM spread, or even take some of the profit and leave a deep ITM $2 or $3 spread. I opted to take the money and run.
I sold my October NLY calls, +2.9%. Given the 14.25% dividend, NLY trades rather flat anyway.
That leave my options account 2/3 in cash, and my main brokerage account 50% in cash. That and other accounts are loaded up with high yield REITs NLY and ARR (19.1% dividend, paid monthly).
Tuesday, August 16, 2011
Planning for More Downside
There was no getting away from a bad open this morning, and I decided to plan for more of the same. DNS -77, -32, -12.
Trades:
My plan was to lighten up on my best picks and plan to re-enter at a better price, and to sell off weaker holdings.
I sold 1/3 of my MCP holdings, -11.75%. I figured it was due to give back some of its recent gains, and I want to add more at a lower price.
I sold both of my HUN positions, -29.0% and -3.5%. Recent gains coupled with declining sales and institutional selling made it a sell.
I sold all of my PVH shares,-2.7%. There's some institutional selling but mostly I expect it to drop and I can get a better entry price.
Reversal alerts: (7) hlr script, (16) t2 script.
Trades:
My plan was to lighten up on my best picks and plan to re-enter at a better price, and to sell off weaker holdings.
I sold 1/3 of my MCP holdings, -11.75%. I figured it was due to give back some of its recent gains, and I want to add more at a lower price.
I sold both of my HUN positions, -29.0% and -3.5%. Recent gains coupled with declining sales and institutional selling made it a sell.
I sold all of my PVH shares,-2.7%. There's some institutional selling but mostly I expect it to drop and I can get a better entry price.
Reversal alerts: (7) hlr script, (16) t2 script.
Monday, August 15, 2011
No Trust
That's three "up" days. I wish I could trust the markets to continue their recovery into options expiration this Friday ... but I can't. DNS +214, +47, +26.
Trades:
I sold the AAPL call options, +5.9%. That's not quite the return I look for in an options trade but last week took me down far enough that breaking even seemed like a good outcome. With no margin for error, I booked the win. Still not bad for 10 days I guess.
I then bought AAPL shares. How often do you get to buy AAPL with a forward P/E of 12.6 while it's got strong double or triple-digit growth?
I had way too many MCP call options about to expire between the strike prices leaving me on the hook for a bunch of shares, so I opted to sell the call spread, +10.6%.
GG was down and seemed to be losing traction, so I sold that spread too, +38.8%.
I didn't see me turning a profit in the DAR call spread, so I opted to minimize the loss on an "up" day, -17.7%.
I sold calls to convert FMCN to a bull call spread (well ITM).
That leaves just bull call spreads CVI (well ITM) and CSTR (OTM) as my only other August options.
Portfolios:
(33) of (37) stocks in the ESG port were up for the day. All (17) traded stocks in the value-sales port were up.
Reversal alerts: (55) hlr script, (88) t2 script.
Trades:
I sold the AAPL call options, +5.9%. That's not quite the return I look for in an options trade but last week took me down far enough that breaking even seemed like a good outcome. With no margin for error, I booked the win. Still not bad for 10 days I guess.
I then bought AAPL shares. How often do you get to buy AAPL with a forward P/E of 12.6 while it's got strong double or triple-digit growth?
I had way too many MCP call options about to expire between the strike prices leaving me on the hook for a bunch of shares, so I opted to sell the call spread, +10.6%.
GG was down and seemed to be losing traction, so I sold that spread too, +38.8%.
I didn't see me turning a profit in the DAR call spread, so I opted to minimize the loss on an "up" day, -17.7%.
I sold calls to convert FMCN to a bull call spread (well ITM).
That leaves just bull call spreads CVI (well ITM) and CSTR (OTM) as my only other August options.
Portfolios:
(33) of (37) stocks in the ESG port were up for the day. All (17) traded stocks in the value-sales port were up.
Reversal alerts: (55) hlr script, (88) t2 script.
Growth Prospects
Tough Sledding
It's not just our imagination. Here's the results from a WealthLab simulation using the t2 script.
Weekly performance:
Monthly performance:
Weekly performance:
Monthly performance:
Friday, August 12, 2011
Two "Up" Days
That's encouraging. DNS +126, +15, +6.
Watchlisters up 10% or more for the week are RES, WFR, CF, SKH, ARUN, CVI, IDCC, PTIE, and ZAGG.
Trades: none.
Just putting in limit sell order for calls (to close or convert to bull call spreads).
Portfolios:
The ESG portfolio is down, -14.9% with only one of (37) stocks above water.
The value-sales portfolio dropped to a +10.4% return for the week, but it rebounded from 2.x% earlier this week.
Reversal alerts: (41) hlr script, (46) t2 script.
Watchlisters up 10% or more for the week are RES, WFR, CF, SKH, ARUN, CVI, IDCC, PTIE, and ZAGG.
Trades: none.
Just putting in limit sell order for calls (to close or convert to bull call spreads).
Portfolios:
The ESG portfolio is down, -14.9% with only one of (37) stocks above water.
The value-sales portfolio dropped to a +10.4% return for the week, but it rebounded from 2.x% earlier this week.
Reversal alerts: (41) hlr script, (46) t2 script.
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