DFS was bought in anticipation of a Fed rate hike. Since purchase DFS has been mostly good at going down. The morning started off like a 2-day rally, and I was going to sell into it. When the market started to turn south I jettisoned the DFS shares, -11.2%.
Around the same time I also sold my highest priced (and smallest) lot of SEDG, -8.9%. I'm still overweight with SEDG shares so I haven't given up on them. Just reducing my exposure and the thrashing my portfolio takes when the market tanks. More money for cheaper shares later.
My top holdings are SEDG, AMAG, and INFN.
AMAG still looks really good though the EPS estimates are bouncing around a bit. But why buy when it keeps getting cheaper? I plan to add to my position before that train leaves the station.
Wednesday, September 9, 2015
Thursday, September 3, 2015
EFOI Gone, Puts Gone
I sold the EFOI position already, +10.6%. Too much too fast I think, plus a fair amount of negative sentiment.
I also sold the SPY puts. I was waiting for the opening rally to fade but had to bail while they were green. +2.0% for the large position, +0.3% for the small account. Next time I hope to get in earlier, and maybe sell earlier.
I also sold the SPY puts. I was waiting for the opening rally to fade but had to bail while they were green. +2.0% for the large position, +0.3% for the small account. Next time I hope to get in earlier, and maybe sell earlier.
Zig or Zag
Now comes the hard part - figuring out whether to stay short or go long.
Yesterday was a great day for longs. My SPY puts lost half their value. AMAG had a great day and SEDG did okay, both of which I trimmed the day before.
The SPY puts have worked great. My portfolio gained value all but one day (when my #2 position AMAG took a dive). It's reassuring to know you're making more money in a down market (provided your biggest positions only suffer modest losses). I wish I'd put them on two weeks earlier. But in a rally they puts the brakes on a rebound and are soon to be a losing position.
Screen:
I looked at some stocks that have been defying the market and came up with AXGN, TRVN, EZCH, EFOI and BEAT (charts). I could have bought TRVN when it was only up 3% (sigh). I ended up buying a starter position in EFOI when it was up 9% or so and still closed with a gain.
Yesterday was a great day for longs. My SPY puts lost half their value. AMAG had a great day and SEDG did okay, both of which I trimmed the day before.
The SPY puts have worked great. My portfolio gained value all but one day (when my #2 position AMAG took a dive). It's reassuring to know you're making more money in a down market (provided your biggest positions only suffer modest losses). I wish I'd put them on two weeks earlier. But in a rally they puts the brakes on a rebound and are soon to be a losing position.
Screen:
I looked at some stocks that have been defying the market and came up with AXGN, TRVN, EZCH, EFOI and BEAT (charts). I could have bought TRVN when it was only up 3% (sigh). I ended up buying a starter position in EFOI when it was up 9% or so and still closed with a gain.
Tuesday, September 1, 2015
Batten Down the Hatches
Today I gave up on a short term recovery. As much as I like the rebound prospects for my under water positions, I don't like the market. So to reduce exposure and raise cash I sold some of my highest priced (and smallest) lots and September calls.
First to go were some SEDG positions opened in June, -36.5%. Then I sold the quickly decaying time value in my Sept $25 calls, -83.4%. Yeah, those got away from me.
I sold the top lot of AMAG, -15.1%.
The SPY put options have worked well so far; up 49% and offsetting my stock losses. Now if I can only divine the bottom and shift gears before these puts smack me in the face.
First to go were some SEDG positions opened in June, -36.5%. Then I sold the quickly decaying time value in my Sept $25 calls, -83.4%. Yeah, those got away from me.
I sold the top lot of AMAG, -15.1%.
The SPY put options have worked well so far; up 49% and offsetting my stock losses. Now if I can only divine the bottom and shift gears before these puts smack me in the face.
Monday, August 31, 2015
Checking In
By now we all know Monday Aug. 24 opened badly. Unfortunately I had a tight stop on CSFL - the gap down took care of that. A 10% paper gain turned into a +0.05% keeper. Lesson learned. My orders are now only good for the day until things settle down.
On Wednesday I bought SWKS again. I sold it today, +6.8%.
On Friday I re-bought the top of my INFN pyramid for $21.86. That's the lot I'd sold earlier for $23.95.
In addition to the SWKS sale today, I also sold my EVHC that I held since May, +10.0%. Both were lower at the close.
Finally, I bought some Nov $190 SPY put options. Too many people I respect are calling for more weakness in the market.
On Wednesday I bought SWKS again. I sold it today, +6.8%.
On Friday I re-bought the top of my INFN pyramid for $21.86. That's the lot I'd sold earlier for $23.95.
In addition to the SWKS sale today, I also sold my EVHC that I held since May, +10.0%. Both were lower at the close.
Finally, I bought some Nov $190 SPY put options. Too many people I respect are calling for more weakness in the market.
Friday, August 21, 2015
BDSI SEDG INFN
On Wed. 8/12 the EPS estimates for BDSI were lowered again (significantly). This is not the sign of a market leader or a likely acquisition candidate. Recovery prospects look bleak. Sold, -48.0%.
Wednesday was a tough day for SEDG. I bought large lots below what I figured were trigger points for stop loss orders (-5, 8, 10%) placed the previous evening. SEDG's solar "peers" are facing headwinds and being punished, but SEDG is a core provider that I believe is insulated to some degree. With EPS estimates raised again, I'm grossly over-weighted in SEDG.
I put in a stop loss order for my top tranche of INFN. It triggered early yesterday morning leaving me with a +3.6% gain on that lot and an unrealized gain of 20%-plus for the larger lots. With more selling, perhaps partly related to newly acquired Transmode shareholders selling their shiny new INFN shares, INFN finished down 12.3% (and the DIA closing down 358 points). That left my remaining shares still in-the-money, but at risk. I don't plan on selling here. I also have October calls that are still ITM.
That leaves my other top holding AMAG. It has fallen through the uptrend line and appears to be in a healthy consolidation phase. I'm holding here.
On a side node, I'm so glad I ditched AKRX. They failed to report Q1 (among other restatements) again amid new Non-Compliance Notices.
Overall, this market is par for summer trading. I'll continue buying and looking ahead to September.
Wednesday was a tough day for SEDG. I bought large lots below what I figured were trigger points for stop loss orders (-5, 8, 10%) placed the previous evening. SEDG's solar "peers" are facing headwinds and being punished, but SEDG is a core provider that I believe is insulated to some degree. With EPS estimates raised again, I'm grossly over-weighted in SEDG.
I put in a stop loss order for my top tranche of INFN. It triggered early yesterday morning leaving me with a +3.6% gain on that lot and an unrealized gain of 20%-plus for the larger lots. With more selling, perhaps partly related to newly acquired Transmode shareholders selling their shiny new INFN shares, INFN finished down 12.3% (and the DIA closing down 358 points). That left my remaining shares still in-the-money, but at risk. I don't plan on selling here. I also have October calls that are still ITM.
That leaves my other top holding AMAG. It has fallen through the uptrend line and appears to be in a healthy consolidation phase. I'm holding here.
On a side node, I'm so glad I ditched AKRX. They failed to report Q1 (among other restatements) again amid new Non-Compliance Notices.
Overall, this market is par for summer trading. I'll continue buying and looking ahead to September.
Friday, August 7, 2015
More AMAG, INFN, and SEDG
Yesterday I added onto my AMAG and SEDG positions. Today it's INFN.
The tankers TNK and LPG might be good for a trade, but the growth flattens out next year so I'll just let my current positions run and capture the value of this year's growth.
NWHM missed so I'm looking for a little bounce to get out of that.
The tankers TNK and LPG might be good for a trade, but the growth flattens out next year so I'll just let my current positions run and capture the value of this year's growth.
NWHM missed so I'm looking for a little bounce to get out of that.
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