Thursday, August 11, 2011

Nice Start

Should we hope for two "up" days in a row? DNS +423, +112, +52.

35 of 37 stocks in the ESG port are up today. All traded positions (17) in the value-sales port are up today. All of my positions are up for the day, but only three positions are up for the 2-week and 1-month periods, so there's still plenty of digging out to do.

Trades: none:

Reversal alerts: (125) hlr script, (89) t2 script.

Wednesday, August 10, 2011

Back Down

... just not quite as bad. DNS -520, -101, -52.

Trades: none.

Reversal alerts: (304) hlr script, (37) t2 script.

Tuesday, August 9, 2011

DJIA +430

I never thought I'd be posting under that heading after yesterday's decline. DNS +430, +125, +53.

Trades: none.

Reversal alerts: hlr script: 394, t2 script: 44. That's from a universe of 1597 stocks.

Monday, August 8, 2011

DJIA -635

DNS -635, -175, -80.

Trades:

Looking ahead I don't like the prospects for oil related stocks with oil dropping to $81. I sold my CVI shares early today, -22.2%. That's way more than I'm used to losing on an equity position. I should have cut CPX loose too, but didn't. It's down 15% for the day.

Reversal alerts: (22).

I'd say if you have something you like, get ready to buy it when the smoke starts to clear. You don't need a reversal signal here to help you find good stocks coming out of a slump in a good market. It would be nice of you did, but that's certainly not the case lately.

Friday, August 5, 2011

Tough Week

Quite a roller coaster day. DNS +61, -24, -1.

Trades:

CMG hit the trailing stop, +5.0%.

I ditched RBCN based on their earnings report and the open. Of course it rallied like a champ afterwards. -28.1%

I bought AAPL call options.

Portfolio Updates:

Last year's value-sales portfolio plummeted to a level of +11.8% for 53 weeks after being up over 50% at one point.

The ESG portfolio got hammered in the first few minutes of its life when SKH tanked. SKH is now down 48% and the portfolio itself is at -12.8% after one week. All but 3 of the 37 stocks are down for the week ... the gainers were CHRM, SNCR, and GOLD.

Reversal alerts: (57).

(5) from the more reliable t2 script of which MCHX and HANS pop out.

Thursday, August 4, 2011

How Bad Was It?

Some observations ...

Of my (19) stocks where I have equity or option positions, NONE are up for the day, 2-week, or one month periods. Only the two REITs are up for the week (0.1% and 1.0%).

The ESG portfolio is 1 for 37 today, the value-sales portfolio is 0 for 18.

Worst Day Ever

I have to say I don't think I've ever taken a hit like this. Not so much because of the market's move, but because I am so heavily invested and exposed. I didn't see a reason to panic here, and still don't. I tried to take advantage of it and it has cost me.

I still have one more trailing stop loss order in for CMG. Except for PVH, where the tsl order didn't execute correctly, the other positions are new after I plowed the cash for earlier stop loss sales into them. Oopsies. Unless my perception of the situation changes, I plan to hold tight and catch the rebound that will come. Lets hope that capitulation occurs quickly.

I suspect that tomorrow morning will probably be pretty ugly after everyone gets home tonight and checks their portfolios and 401(k)s. The towels will go in tomorrow. Mutual fund redemptions will follow. The remaining stop loss orders will avalanche.

DNS -513, -137, -60.

Trades:

My play on HUN didn't quite work out when it dropped 25% off the bat. It started recovering so I bought some calls on it. Later a low-ball limit order filled since it dropped 30.5% for the day. Good pick, eh?

CMI calls were sold, -31.6%.

VRTS and TW shares hit their trailing stops; +8.8%, -5.3% respectively.

Reversal alerts: (57). Most seem to be false positives from the hlr script. The reversal scripts don't fare well in a falling market.