Thursday, July 7, 2011

Now That's a Rally!

DNS +93, +39, +14.

Trades:

I bought shares of HAYN, KELYA, and VRTS.  So I do eat my own cooking so to speak.

Just a touch of seller's remorse over CWEI but that often goes away in a day or two (especially if the price drops!).

Holdings:

FWIW my personal mutual fund now consists of : ACOR, ARR, ATHN, CMG, CVI, DAR, EFII, FMCN, HAYN, HURC, KELYA, LULU, LVS, NLY, PTIE, PVH, RBCN, TAL, and VRTS. Everything is up except some DAR calls and my OTM PTIE spread.

Reversal alerts: (7).

BKS alerted again, tonight on the t2 script with a decent reversal pattern. Its fundamentals are still bad. IBI alerted on the t2 script as well with okay fundamentals and pattern.

EM has modest sales growth but triple digit earnings growth for the last two, and next two quarters. Next quarter's EPS is expected to jump from $0.05 to $0.25/share. The P/E is falling from 55 to 20. Not a great chart though.

KELYA, VRTS, HAYN

Kelly Services' sales have grown sequentially for all seven most recent quarters (I only have eight in the database). YoY sales growth is between 11% and 22.4% for the last four Qs.  YoY quarterly earnings growth is over 100% for five of the last four plus next two quarter (estimated). P/E falling from 21 to 15.7. 167 institutions own 77.7% of the float with a 5.8 buy-side bias. (website)

Virtus Investment Partners has the same seven quarters of sequential sales growth, YoY between 17.1% and 32%. Earnings growth is strong YoY (87% then 146%+)  and sequentially (two Q of the last three and next two est. Qs). Next quarter's EPS is estimated to jump from last quarter's $0.48 to $0.81 (reports Aug 1), then $0.96 after that. P/E falling from 54 to 24. 106 institutions hold 51.8% of float with a 25.3% buy-side bias. (website)

Haynes International has had sequential sales growth for the last five quarters, YoY growth of 22% to 47%.  Quarterly earnings have grown sequentially for all seven quarters in my database plus anticipated for the next two. YoY quarterly earnings growth for the last four quarters has accelerated from 134% to 550%. The growth should drop the P/E from 37 to 26.5. 123 institutions hold 87.2% (per Y!Fin) with a 8.1% buy-side bias. (website)

Wednesday, July 6, 2011

Odd Up Day

The indexes are up, every one of my stock positions (*) is up, but it seems like the losers gave up a little more than the gainers gained. Most of the portfolios (2:1) in my ClearStation page are down. DNS +56, +8, +1. Watchlisters PTIE, UDRL, and ATHN were up over 5% today. ZAGG, VECO, UTSI, MCP gave up 4.5% or more. Too bad PTIE is so OTM.

Trades:

CWEI hit the trailing stop order as indicated below. (* This was a stock position ... until about 10).

I bought CVI shares.

I've been very protective of my gains here, placing trailing stop loss orders under everything with a larger gain. Maybe I'm selling too early ... I wouldn't have bought these stocks if I didn't think they had good long term potential. But I can't predict the future and I don't trust this market. Recent sales of ZAGG, MCP, and JKS have been to my advantage as stocks are not holding new highs very well. Besides, it makes the blog name that much more apropos.

Reversal alerts: Not counting an ultra-short fund, (1) BABY. Decent sales and earnings growth, P/E dropping from 29.5 to 22.7.

CWEI Gone

CWEI hit the TSL, +6.7%.

CVI

I haven't talked about CVR Energy (CVI), so ...
  • Analyst opinions: four "Buys", one "Strong Buy".
  • 15 of 16 earnings estimates have been revised upwards.
  • YoY quarterly sales have increased from 24% min to 30.5% max over the last four quarters.
  • Positive earnings for all four quarters this year vs. two quarterly losses last year. Growth has been mixed but estimates are for a new level of earnings, which is why I wanted to have a position in CVI before the earnings announcement (Aug 3). EPS ranges: last year -$.016 to 0.49, this year 0.01 to 0.53, next two quarters $1.29 and $0.92. That's triple digit growth for four of six quarters.
  • P/E dropping from 30 to 9.

Tuesday, July 5, 2011

Got NFLX?

A good 8.1% gain for NFLX today put it up almost 180% for the year. DNS -13, +10, -2. It was also a good day for ZAGG, CWEI, and ATHN.

Trades:

MCP gapped down and tripped my trailing stop loss order, +4.1%.

I bought CVI calls today.

In an untracked account, I sold NLY shares and bought DAR and CVI call options.

Reversal alerts: (1) - BKS. Good luck with that one.

Friday, July 1, 2011

What a Week!

We don't get many weeks like this. It sure helps to rebuild the account balances after the pummeling we took a few weeks ago. DNS +168, +43, +19. I could make a really long list of the stocks up big for the last two weeks, or just post the perf chart.

Trades:

As much as I like what I know about DAR, I got spooked by the pre-market action. That, in conjunction with yesterdays loss and the spike down let me to think someone knows something I don't. My plan in such a case is to get out until the news breaks or the stock settles down. Hopefully get out early and come back in at a lower price if still a good prospect.

I set trailing stops for the stock (5%) and calls. My stock sold just after the open. DAR went lower then rebounded somewhat, -7.0%.

Oh yeah ... I just found that I had a low-ball limit order in for more DAR calls that filled. So much for my plan of reducing my position. I sure hope it's done going down!

Value-sales portfolio, +39.4%
I sold call options for RBCN to convert my Aug calls to a call spread. I had a good price on my limit order but could have gotten more. (Some people are never satisfied!)

Corrected: The value-sales port moved up considerably, to +39.4%.

I chased VRTS a bit and still didn't get it. Sigh ...

Reversal alerts: (2), junk.