Friday, December 17, 2010

Backwards Man

There are times when you just go about everything backwards. That was me today and yesterday.

Yesterday I sold WLL and VSEA spreads early, and below where they closed. Today they're up again, VSEA a whopping 4.7%. The other call spreads that closed today went down, BEXP -2.9%.  Sigh.  :-(

Trades: Expired call spreads: BEXP +53.0%, OMG +117.4% (both gross).

Value-sales port, +36.2%
Reversal alerts: (14) filtered down to HLF CRI RTN & EGY.

Buying RES

I'm still bullish on RES (RPC Inc.) and just picked up more shares.

RES is setting up a nice reversal pattern with good symmetry in the indicators. Analyst opinions are lukewarm, but it's P/E is falling from 36 to 17 (based on last Friday's price), and earnings estimates are holding up well. That's with triple digit sales and earnings growth.

Thursday, December 16, 2010

Panic Dis Order

With the roller coaster market and options expiring tomorrow, I put in limit sell orders for VSEA and WLL as both had lost ground recently. Both orders fired off and I lost a little value (probably). +33.7% and +14.3% respectively. Considering that I'd rolled the short call up on VSEA to buy discounted intrinsic value, and doubled down on WLL with a late repeat buy, I can't complain about my yields ... too much.

That still leaves me with expiring in-the-money spreads for BEXP and OMG.

Reversal alerts: (4). Ford, SNH, and TKLC. Ford is holding a P/E between 10 and 8.

Wednesday, December 15, 2010

3rd Down Day

I usually like to buy after three "down" days. And here's the part where I get pessimistic and say "but not now" and watch the DJIA shoot up 200 points tomorrow.

Trades: I bought stock and calls in RES and VECO.

Reversal alerts: (4) of which only DVA is viable. 5% sales growth, flat earnings, and a P/E of 16. Meh.

The value-sales port has dropped to a +35.1% gain.

Tuesday, December 14, 2010

An "Up" Day. Really?

Not if you're looking at my positions and watchlist.

Trades: I bought EGHT stock, and calls for CF and SCCO. I should have waited.

VECO got a 15.6% haircut today after a downgrade by Citi to "hold".  For this year, there is another hold rating, one buy, and two overweights. Veeco's P/E is falling from 11 to 7 with recent sales growth just under 300% YoY and triple digit earnings growth. It looks like the sales and earning are going to flatten out next year, but the estimates are holding well. I'm gonna pick up some of that.

Reversal alerts: (2), BBW & PTC. PTC might be okay but seems fully valued.

Monday, December 13, 2010

Took a Spill

The market lost its footing late in the day. It's never easy ... at least recent buys ERES, VALE, and SMS are moving up.

Trades: I bought SCHN calls. SCCO got away.

Reversal alerts: (4).

The T2 script issued an alert on TTM - the HLR script alerted on it last week. It's P/E is 17.9 and that's all we know.

EGHT has very modest growth and a P/E falling to 18.6, but it could be setting up for another run.

I'm always ready to snipe a few percent on a reversal play if the fundamentals are okay. It helps a lot if the market is moving with you. But that's frequently not the case on any given day lately.

Friday, December 10, 2010

Another Up Week

Despite all the thrashing about, we're still moving up. DJIA +40, Naz +21, SnP +7.

Trades:

VSH has been drifting about and seemed headed for the trailing stop so I intervened and cut it loose in anticipation of a consolidation phase. +79.4%

CRZO announced a secondary offering after yesterday's close which explains the big drop three days ago. [Remember, there is no insider trading.] I didn't like the sound of that so I sold while I could still close out my spread in the green. +0.77%

Value-sales portfolio up +37.7%
Reversal alerts: (10).
WTR is so-so fundamentally and has moved up well (ptp).

TTM has a P/E of 20, and that's about all that is published.

I like where shipper SSW is going. Sales growth is accelerating. Now at 50% YoY sales growth (mrq). Let it shed some losses and it's headed for a P/E of 10. It's going into my watch list with the other shippers.