were the big movers on my watchlist today.
I was hoping yesterday's volatility and lower prices would yield some good deals on call spreads this morning. My orders for AMP and CRZO were quickly outbid.
Trades: I bought some more WLL spreads since it was down. Could have paid less.
Reversal alerts: EGHT EPD LNCE LUV & SWS. I'll pass.
Thursday, December 9, 2010
Wednesday, December 8, 2010
Weird Wednesday
The market indexes closed up, but all of my holdings were down except VSH, ERES and CBAI. My oil stocks were hit hard even though oil went up throughout the day.
Trades: The 6% trailing stops kicked in for VECO (+5.6%) and CF (-1.8%). CBAI touched my limit order and sold a few shares ... so few that I didn't even turn a profit after paying the sales commission. Booo.
My CRZO limit order for a call spread finished filling.
Reversal alerts: (3), all junk.
Trades: The 6% trailing stops kicked in for VECO (+5.6%) and CF (-1.8%). CBAI touched my limit order and sold a few shares ... so few that I didn't even turn a profit after paying the sales commission. Booo.
My CRZO limit order for a call spread finished filling.
Reversal alerts: (3), all junk.
Tax Relief?
The market opened strong on the hope that tax cuts would be preserved ... then fizzled late in the day. Why do they call them tax cuts when we're overtaxed to begin with?
Trades: I bought some ERES shares.
Reversal alerts: (7) of which TSRA is of interest.
Other stuff: I'm looking again at watchlist stocks AMAT AMP APH & SCHN.
The value-sales portfolio is at +35.6%.
Trades: I bought some ERES shares.
Reversal alerts: (7) of which TSRA is of interest.
Other stuff: I'm looking again at watchlist stocks AMAT AMP APH & SCHN.
The value-sales portfolio is at +35.6%.
Monday, December 6, 2010
Flipping the Intrinsic
Today I went shopping for some option value and picked up some more energy and raw material stocks.
Trades:
I rolled my VSEA short call from $30 to 35, basically buying $5 of intrinsic value for $4.15 with the Dec. expiration coming in under two weeks.
I bought a Dec 105/115 WLL spread worth $8.64 for $6.65.
These short term trades should work out nice unless the market turns and stomps my head in. But I digress ...
Equity-wise, I bought more RES. I also moved into VALE and SMS. VALE's P/E is falling from 14 to 9 with triple digit sales and earnings growth. SMS has resurfaced (was MM - Metal Management) and has been going through some acquisition process - or not, and has no meaningful analyst coverage. I can see SMS with a forward P/E of 11. Maybe. Reader beware.
Reversal alerts: (5) of which ERES and XPO are interesting. We finally got our T2 script's alert on ERES since it has held its ground since bouncing off of the bottom two days ago. XPO is holding a P/E around 12 and has strong double digit sales growth, and growing institutional ownership (86% of institutional trades were buys; institutional ownership now at 43%).
Trades:
I rolled my VSEA short call from $30 to 35, basically buying $5 of intrinsic value for $4.15 with the Dec. expiration coming in under two weeks.
I bought a Dec 105/115 WLL spread worth $8.64 for $6.65.
These short term trades should work out nice unless the market turns and stomps my head in. But I digress ...
Equity-wise, I bought more RES. I also moved into VALE and SMS. VALE's P/E is falling from 14 to 9 with triple digit sales and earnings growth. SMS has resurfaced (was MM - Metal Management) and has been going through some acquisition process - or not, and has no meaningful analyst coverage. I can see SMS with a forward P/E of 11. Maybe. Reader beware.
Reversal alerts: (5) of which ERES and XPO are interesting. We finally got our T2 script's alert on ERES since it has held its ground since bouncing off of the bottom two days ago. XPO is holding a P/E around 12 and has strong double digit sales growth, and growing institutional ownership (86% of institutional trades were buys; institutional ownership now at 43%).
Friday, December 3, 2010
Rebound Week
Three good days put us back where we were (more or less).
Trades: I missed moving my limit order up on my BRKS spread again. A few days ago I was trying to sell it for a small profit as I was moving to cash. Today I'm miffed because I sold $3 of intrinsic value for $2.75. Oh well, +24.8% will have to do.
I bought ANR & RES stock for some IRA accounts.
Reversal alerts: (5), all bad.
Trades: I missed moving my limit order up on my BRKS spread again. A few days ago I was trying to sell it for a small profit as I was moving to cash. Today I'm miffed because I sold $3 of intrinsic value for $2.75. Oh well, +24.8% will have to do.
I bought ANR & RES stock for some IRA accounts.
 | |
| Value-sales portfolio, +35.0% |
Reversal alerts: (5), all bad.
Thursday, December 2, 2010
The One(s) That Got Away
DJIA +107, Naz +30, SnP +15.
Here's the part where I whine about the stocks I sold too early. LOCM +27.8%, PWER +8.2%. Okay, I'm done.
ERES was up 7.3% today so I might be on to something there.
Trades: none.
Reversal Alerts: Only three: CPBK MEDW & SGMA. Too bad none of them has earnings estimates.
Here's the part where I whine about the stocks I sold too early. LOCM +27.8%, PWER +8.2%. Okay, I'm done.
ERES was up 7.3% today so I might be on to something there.
Trades: none.
Reversal Alerts: Only three: CPBK MEDW & SGMA. Too bad none of them has earnings estimates.
Wednesday, December 1, 2010
Didn't Expect This
DJIA +250, Naz +51, SnP +26. Now that's a nice turn-around. Hopefully tomorrow's news won't be all about collapsing economies and global conflicts.
If we really are at the early stages of an economic recovery, then I don't want to be out of the market. That's particularly true of energy, raw materials, and maybe transportation. There's no bear market in energy as BEXP, CRZO, DRQ, RES and WLL were hitting new highs again today.
Trades: I bought Jan $15 bull call spreads in ANR, CRZO, and RES. I converted my Dec VSEA calls to a bull call spread.
Reversal Alerts: 24.
ERES (c f) has been beaten up pretty badly, has weak analyst support, and it's earning estimates are mixed between being revised upward and downward. On the plus side, its P/E is falling from 33 to 20. Sales growth was accelerating ... +99% YoY mrq though it will hold steady next quarter. Earnings will nearly double in the next quarter as it's estimated to go from 6 cps (mrq) to 10 then 12 cents/share (+49% and +188% YoY). Something has positively influenced sales and earnings going forward.
However, this was an alert from the HLR script and it does not have a good record with predicting ERES moves. The T2 script shows horrible indicator symmetry as this stock has just continued to slide. There's been huge selling pressure here - maybe its warranted, or maybe there's a trade here. I'm going to watchlist it, and may try to catch a bounce. We're either ahead of the crowd here or the last to get the bad news.
If we really are at the early stages of an economic recovery, then I don't want to be out of the market. That's particularly true of energy, raw materials, and maybe transportation. There's no bear market in energy as BEXP, CRZO, DRQ, RES and WLL were hitting new highs again today.
Trades: I bought Jan $15 bull call spreads in ANR, CRZO, and RES. I converted my Dec VSEA calls to a bull call spread.
Reversal Alerts: 24.
ERES (c f) has been beaten up pretty badly, has weak analyst support, and it's earning estimates are mixed between being revised upward and downward. On the plus side, its P/E is falling from 33 to 20. Sales growth was accelerating ... +99% YoY mrq though it will hold steady next quarter. Earnings will nearly double in the next quarter as it's estimated to go from 6 cps (mrq) to 10 then 12 cents/share (+49% and +188% YoY). Something has positively influenced sales and earnings going forward.
However, this was an alert from the HLR script and it does not have a good record with predicting ERES moves. The T2 script shows horrible indicator symmetry as this stock has just continued to slide. There's been huge selling pressure here - maybe its warranted, or maybe there's a trade here. I'm going to watchlist it, and may try to catch a bounce. We're either ahead of the crowd here or the last to get the bad news.
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