MOH had a good run but EPS estimates started slipping. I put a 4% trailing stop loss order in place. It triggered on Friday, +11.9%.
The SPY puts are still in place.
Sunday, September 20, 2015
Tuesday, September 15, 2015
LP RI OP on AMAG
Leerink Partners reiterates its outperform rating for AMAG. "there is a high likelihood that the [competitor's] drug is contraindicated for use in pregnant women". [Street Insider]
Monday, September 14, 2015
Watching MGR
I'll grab some more MGR if it hits my limit order this week. MGR is exchange traded debt issued by AMG (which hasn't fared quite as well) which pays a 6-3/8% dividend on $25 par value callable in August 2017. That gives it a present value of $28.19. It closed at $26.11 today.
[SA article]
[SA article]
EFOI ... Again
Saturday, September 12, 2015
More AMAG
I bought more AMAG yesterday when it was down 10.8% on news of debatable impact to AMAG (SeekingAlpha - read comments).
The SPY puts are still in place.
The SPY puts are still in place.
Friday, September 11, 2015
Updates, SEDG & AMAG
SEDG had great news on their new HD-Wave inverters (PV mag article), up 4.1% for the day.
AMAG went down even more, -4.7%. With triple-digit quarterly revenue growth for the last three quarters and a forward P/E of 7.4 this looks like an easy buy. But EPS estimates were just revised down a few percent for the next two quarters, slightly reducing the estimates for this year and next. It's problematic if this becomes a trend.
MOH has been a steady performer without all the drama. Not cheap with a forward P/E of 22, but good growth projected for earnings and revenue.
I went short against the general market again with SPY puts.
AMAG went down even more, -4.7%. With triple-digit quarterly revenue growth for the last three quarters and a forward P/E of 7.4 this looks like an easy buy. But EPS estimates were just revised down a few percent for the next two quarters, slightly reducing the estimates for this year and next. It's problematic if this becomes a trend.
MOH has been a steady performer without all the drama. Not cheap with a forward P/E of 22, but good growth projected for earnings and revenue.
I went short against the general market again with SPY puts.
Wednesday, September 9, 2015
DFS Gone, Less SEDG
DFS was bought in anticipation of a Fed rate hike. Since purchase DFS has been mostly good at going down. The morning started off like a 2-day rally, and I was going to sell into it. When the market started to turn south I jettisoned the DFS shares, -11.2%.
Around the same time I also sold my highest priced (and smallest) lot of SEDG, -8.9%. I'm still overweight with SEDG shares so I haven't given up on them. Just reducing my exposure and the thrashing my portfolio takes when the market tanks. More money for cheaper shares later.
My top holdings are SEDG, AMAG, and INFN.
AMAG still looks really good though the EPS estimates are bouncing around a bit. But why buy when it keeps getting cheaper? I plan to add to my position before that train leaves the station.
Around the same time I also sold my highest priced (and smallest) lot of SEDG, -8.9%. I'm still overweight with SEDG shares so I haven't given up on them. Just reducing my exposure and the thrashing my portfolio takes when the market tanks. More money for cheaper shares later.
My top holdings are SEDG, AMAG, and INFN.
AMAG still looks really good though the EPS estimates are bouncing around a bit. But why buy when it keeps getting cheaper? I plan to add to my position before that train leaves the station.
Thursday, September 3, 2015
EFOI Gone, Puts Gone
I sold the EFOI position already, +10.6%. Too much too fast I think, plus a fair amount of negative sentiment.
I also sold the SPY puts. I was waiting for the opening rally to fade but had to bail while they were green. +2.0% for the large position, +0.3% for the small account. Next time I hope to get in earlier, and maybe sell earlier.
I also sold the SPY puts. I was waiting for the opening rally to fade but had to bail while they were green. +2.0% for the large position, +0.3% for the small account. Next time I hope to get in earlier, and maybe sell earlier.
Zig or Zag
Now comes the hard part - figuring out whether to stay short or go long.
Yesterday was a great day for longs. My SPY puts lost half their value. AMAG had a great day and SEDG did okay, both of which I trimmed the day before.
The SPY puts have worked great. My portfolio gained value all but one day (when my #2 position AMAG took a dive). It's reassuring to know you're making more money in a down market (provided your biggest positions only suffer modest losses). I wish I'd put them on two weeks earlier. But in a rally they puts the brakes on a rebound and are soon to be a losing position.
Screen:
I looked at some stocks that have been defying the market and came up with AXGN, TRVN, EZCH, EFOI and BEAT (charts). I could have bought TRVN when it was only up 3% (sigh). I ended up buying a starter position in EFOI when it was up 9% or so and still closed with a gain.
Yesterday was a great day for longs. My SPY puts lost half their value. AMAG had a great day and SEDG did okay, both of which I trimmed the day before.
The SPY puts have worked great. My portfolio gained value all but one day (when my #2 position AMAG took a dive). It's reassuring to know you're making more money in a down market (provided your biggest positions only suffer modest losses). I wish I'd put them on two weeks earlier. But in a rally they puts the brakes on a rebound and are soon to be a losing position.
Screen:
I looked at some stocks that have been defying the market and came up with AXGN, TRVN, EZCH, EFOI and BEAT (charts). I could have bought TRVN when it was only up 3% (sigh). I ended up buying a starter position in EFOI when it was up 9% or so and still closed with a gain.
Tuesday, September 1, 2015
Batten Down the Hatches
Today I gave up on a short term recovery. As much as I like the rebound prospects for my under water positions, I don't like the market. So to reduce exposure and raise cash I sold some of my highest priced (and smallest) lots and September calls.
First to go were some SEDG positions opened in June, -36.5%. Then I sold the quickly decaying time value in my Sept $25 calls, -83.4%. Yeah, those got away from me.
I sold the top lot of AMAG, -15.1%.
The SPY put options have worked well so far; up 49% and offsetting my stock losses. Now if I can only divine the bottom and shift gears before these puts smack me in the face.
First to go were some SEDG positions opened in June, -36.5%. Then I sold the quickly decaying time value in my Sept $25 calls, -83.4%. Yeah, those got away from me.
I sold the top lot of AMAG, -15.1%.
The SPY put options have worked well so far; up 49% and offsetting my stock losses. Now if I can only divine the bottom and shift gears before these puts smack me in the face.
Monday, August 31, 2015
Checking In
By now we all know Monday Aug. 24 opened badly. Unfortunately I had a tight stop on CSFL - the gap down took care of that. A 10% paper gain turned into a +0.05% keeper. Lesson learned. My orders are now only good for the day until things settle down.
On Wednesday I bought SWKS again. I sold it today, +6.8%.
On Friday I re-bought the top of my INFN pyramid for $21.86. That's the lot I'd sold earlier for $23.95.
In addition to the SWKS sale today, I also sold my EVHC that I held since May, +10.0%. Both were lower at the close.
Finally, I bought some Nov $190 SPY put options. Too many people I respect are calling for more weakness in the market.
On Wednesday I bought SWKS again. I sold it today, +6.8%.
On Friday I re-bought the top of my INFN pyramid for $21.86. That's the lot I'd sold earlier for $23.95.
In addition to the SWKS sale today, I also sold my EVHC that I held since May, +10.0%. Both were lower at the close.
Finally, I bought some Nov $190 SPY put options. Too many people I respect are calling for more weakness in the market.
Friday, August 21, 2015
BDSI SEDG INFN
On Wed. 8/12 the EPS estimates for BDSI were lowered again (significantly). This is not the sign of a market leader or a likely acquisition candidate. Recovery prospects look bleak. Sold, -48.0%.
Wednesday was a tough day for SEDG. I bought large lots below what I figured were trigger points for stop loss orders (-5, 8, 10%) placed the previous evening. SEDG's solar "peers" are facing headwinds and being punished, but SEDG is a core provider that I believe is insulated to some degree. With EPS estimates raised again, I'm grossly over-weighted in SEDG.
I put in a stop loss order for my top tranche of INFN. It triggered early yesterday morning leaving me with a +3.6% gain on that lot and an unrealized gain of 20%-plus for the larger lots. With more selling, perhaps partly related to newly acquired Transmode shareholders selling their shiny new INFN shares, INFN finished down 12.3% (and the DIA closing down 358 points). That left my remaining shares still in-the-money, but at risk. I don't plan on selling here. I also have October calls that are still ITM.
That leaves my other top holding AMAG. It has fallen through the uptrend line and appears to be in a healthy consolidation phase. I'm holding here.
On a side node, I'm so glad I ditched AKRX. They failed to report Q1 (among other restatements) again amid new Non-Compliance Notices.
Overall, this market is par for summer trading. I'll continue buying and looking ahead to September.
Wednesday was a tough day for SEDG. I bought large lots below what I figured were trigger points for stop loss orders (-5, 8, 10%) placed the previous evening. SEDG's solar "peers" are facing headwinds and being punished, but SEDG is a core provider that I believe is insulated to some degree. With EPS estimates raised again, I'm grossly over-weighted in SEDG.
I put in a stop loss order for my top tranche of INFN. It triggered early yesterday morning leaving me with a +3.6% gain on that lot and an unrealized gain of 20%-plus for the larger lots. With more selling, perhaps partly related to newly acquired Transmode shareholders selling their shiny new INFN shares, INFN finished down 12.3% (and the DIA closing down 358 points). That left my remaining shares still in-the-money, but at risk. I don't plan on selling here. I also have October calls that are still ITM.
That leaves my other top holding AMAG. It has fallen through the uptrend line and appears to be in a healthy consolidation phase. I'm holding here.
On a side node, I'm so glad I ditched AKRX. They failed to report Q1 (among other restatements) again amid new Non-Compliance Notices.
Overall, this market is par for summer trading. I'll continue buying and looking ahead to September.
Friday, August 7, 2015
More AMAG, INFN, and SEDG
Yesterday I added onto my AMAG and SEDG positions. Today it's INFN.
The tankers TNK and LPG might be good for a trade, but the growth flattens out next year so I'll just let my current positions run and capture the value of this year's growth.
NWHM missed so I'm looking for a little bounce to get out of that.
The tankers TNK and LPG might be good for a trade, but the growth flattens out next year so I'll just let my current positions run and capture the value of this year's growth.
NWHM missed so I'm looking for a little bounce to get out of that.
Wednesday, July 29, 2015
LPG & NWHM Opened
TNK Added
I added onto TNK Monday after estimates were raised going into next week's earning report.
I was a day early on my AMAG and SEDG buys Friday, and TNK's Monday. It's so much nicer having a bit of profit to work with rather than being under water 1 day out. But that's what you get buying in a market slump.
I was a day early on my AMAG and SEDG buys Friday, and TNK's Monday. It's so much nicer having a bit of profit to work with rather than being under water 1 day out. But that's what you get buying in a market slump.
Friday, July 24, 2015
AKRX Gone, Q2 ERs
I opted to sell AKRX and sit out its belated Q1 earnings report, +2.4%. It's basically a "do-over" with a bit of profit thrown in.
I bought more AMAG and SEDG. I'm pyramiding both - capping off AMAG with a small tranche, building the base of SEDG with a much larger one. These are my two largest positions by a large margin.
I think I called SWKS right. There's still growth there, but it's not the rocket ship it was. I'll keep an eye on the EPS estimates and wait for the dust to settle, but I'm out for now.
This was not a good week. Someday I'd like to sell DFS for a profit. Everything was down but INFN, which had a nice pop to new highs.
Holdings: AMAG BDSI CSFL DFS EVHC INFN MOH SEDG TNK
I bought more AMAG and SEDG. I'm pyramiding both - capping off AMAG with a small tranche, building the base of SEDG with a much larger one. These are my two largest positions by a large margin.
I think I called SWKS right. There's still growth there, but it's not the rocket ship it was. I'll keep an eye on the EPS estimates and wait for the dust to settle, but I'm out for now.
This was not a good week. Someday I'd like to sell DFS for a profit. Everything was down but INFN, which had a nice pop to new highs.
Holdings: AMAG BDSI CSFL DFS EVHC INFN MOH SEDG TNK
Friday, July 17, 2015
LCI Gone, INFN Expiry
Earlier this week I set a 4% trailing stop loss order under LCI which finally kicked me out above $60, +3.6%. Considering the loss I was staring at at one point, that's good.
My July INFN call options expired today. I priced them a smidgen too high and finally had to punt for a small loss, -3.0%. My October INFN calls are in good shape.
It was a good week with all but two stocks (LCI & SEDG) up for the week. More than half were up over 5% for the week.
My July INFN call options expired today. I priced them a smidgen too high and finally had to punt for a small loss, -3.0%. My October INFN calls are in good shape.
It was a good week with all but two stocks (LCI & SEDG) up for the week. More than half were up over 5% for the week.
Thursday, July 16, 2015
AKRX Opened
Yesterday I saw AKRN mentioned with LCI and took a look. Earnings as posted (and lagging) are growing, revenue has reached a new level with some growth projected. There's 80% institutional ownership with a 90% buy-side bias. It's a bit expensive P/E-wise but next year's forward P/E is 18.6. I opened a position.
Today I see that AKRN is late filing it's March 31 10-Q but just got a reprieve yesterday from Nasdaq. Personally I don't want to wait as late as Nov 9 to see how they did in Q1 ... at least not for this price (P/E). I think the stock has sold off enough to offer some protection and rebound potential, but I'll be proceeding carefully.
Funny how I checked for earnings disappointments (there were none) but missed the fact that all of Q1 was missing.
Today I see that AKRN is late filing it's March 31 10-Q but just got a reprieve yesterday from Nasdaq. Personally I don't want to wait as late as Nov 9 to see how they did in Q1 ... at least not for this price (P/E). I think the stock has sold off enough to offer some protection and rebound potential, but I'll be proceeding carefully.
Funny how I checked for earnings disappointments (there were none) but missed the fact that all of Q1 was missing.
Tuesday, July 14, 2015
SWKS Closed, Again
It still feels like SWKS is struggling to get to new highs. Earnings estimates are static, and will probably remain so until they report earnings on the 23rd.
I put in a limit sell order that took quite a while to fill. The position closed with a 5.6% gain in less than a week. That's a year's gain for some asset classes so I'm happy with my modest (but quick) gain from gambling on an oversold bounce.
With earnings estimates mostly locked in I'm not scanning for new opportunities; but rather waiting for the earnings reports to come in. Less gamble, more visibility.
I put in a limit sell order that took quite a while to fill. The position closed with a 5.6% gain in less than a week. That's a year's gain for some asset classes so I'm happy with my modest (but quick) gain from gambling on an oversold bounce.
With earnings estimates mostly locked in I'm not scanning for new opportunities; but rather waiting for the earnings reports to come in. Less gamble, more visibility.
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